Betfair Chase Haydock Park Sat Nov 24th

I was just about to mention that before Colin posted it. I would be wary about taking any times on face value yesterday as RUK on more than one occasion expressed serious doubts about the actual distance being correct.
 
Without going into the facts of timings I thought that on a day when practically every horse finished their race walking it reflects additional credit on Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star who actually finished running, particularly so the winner as he raced and jumped with such exuberance from a long way out.
 
Has anyone seen Beefy jump better than yesterday? I don't recall any mistakes or serious ground lost.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Nov 25 2007, 11:57 AM
Haydock are a bit crap, really, aren't they?
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IMO -

they are on my list. I've named some of the courses before who I believe to be disingenious, I've also named the ones who I belive to be good
 
I have been looking at the race again.

They absolutely murdered anyone who dared to race with them. Only Beefy could get within 30 lengths, and that is because he was either ridden for third or (more likely) unable to get close to the two lads turning for home.

I am beginning to agree with Gareth; there is very little chance of MWdS being able to live with these two horses at Kempton, or anywhere.
 
They are both battlers, but ED's 'come form behind' style will always leave him vulnerable. KS proved on Saturday that he can do it even being in front for far too long - I think he will always manage to pull out a bit more. I feel so sorry for poor ED; horses can get very demoralised by always coming 2nd, esp to the same horse.

It was interesting to read the trainers' comments after the race.

<< Kempton on Boxing Day will also be on the agenda for My Way De Solzen, who finished a well-beaten fifth with trainer Alan King blaming himself.
" He was blowing for 35 minutes after the race and was very tired. I'm disappointed with myself. I thought he'd done plenty of work at home, but clearly he hadn't" >>

Nicolls also blamed himself for KS's lacklustre run in the Old Roan; sadly the clipping has vanished but in essence he said he'd been training KS before that race with a couple of his two-milers. Since then he's changed his regime and has been training him with some of his staying chasers, and it's worked the trick: "He started really enjoying himself again on the gallops".

I love insights like this.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Nov 25 2007, 09:53 PM


I am beginning to agree with Gareth; there is very little chance of MWdS being able to live with these two horses at Kempton, or anywhere.
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He`ll probably finish closer at Kempton and end up in the Ryanair.
 
He's a very stuffy horse, hard to get fit, and see Alan's comment which I quoted above, which seems to imply he has a lot to work on still.

I think he will run in the KG and then Alan will decide which Cheltenham race to aim for. He won't put him in the GC if he doesn't think later in the season that he can anywhere near those two.

I'd rather see him in the Ryanair this year, personally, but I'm old fashioned about giving horses time over their racing career. It's not the style these days!
 
Racing Post go 182 for Kauto. I think they're being conservative for once, and could have rated him at the same 184 they gave him last year. Either way, it's the 4th time they've rated him 180 or over, which takes him past Moscow's three,
 
Timeform give him the same rating he ran to at Aintree.

As for future battles I think they should try and ride Exotic Dancer slightly more agressive. It seems to me that when they hold him up so far back KS makes his move between the second and third last and seems to get first run on him.
 
On the basis of that performance, I would agree with those who said Exotic Dancer will be the more likely winner at Cheltenham. Certainly an equal chance at any rate. I wouldn't be quite so sure about backing a Jonjo horse over 3 months in advance though, the last one of his I backed ante post lasted all of about 16 hours before going lame.
 
I can't see how anyone can write off a horse (My Way De Solzen) who patently blew up! He was travelling and jumping very well until he fell in a hole - the horse blew for 35 minutes afterwards so he will improve no end for that race.

Let's face it, Exotic Dancer's debut run was pretty dire as well, that didn't stop him - and both the front two had the benefit of a run ender their belt.
 
I wouldn't write him off completely, but you would have to view that as a negative. Apart from anything else, he had a long unpleasant jog home when pretty legless. Whether he has drifted to the point where he can be considered "value" is dubious, but arguable. You certainly couldn't consider him to have the same chance now as you would before the race.
 
Out of interest, why could you "certainly [not] consider him to have the same chance now as you would before the race"? Does that mean to say that since Exotic Dancer ran a dreadful race at Aintree he couldn't be fancied for a race again?

Initially I was disappointed in the horse, especially since he was jumping and travelling so well for so long. He blew up though - so that run cannot possibly be seen as a true reflection of the horse's ability. He blew for 35 minutes, does anyone realise how long that actually is in terms of a horse's fitness? Believe me, it's a long time - if one blows for 20 minutes after a race you know it wasn't fit enough!
 
In fairness ,Exotic Dancer had a fair bit to prove the last day - thus a starting price you wouldn't necessarily have imagined a couple of months back. He has gone on to prove himself so Aintree then becomes irrelevant. MWDS has to go and do the same now.
 
Probably just as bad for MWDS supporters is not in his own performance, but in the performance of the other two. Kauto Star has obviously retained his ability and Exotic Dancer appears to have improved. It's not hard to imagine MWDS become a 170 type animal or even mid 170's, but it now looks likely that if he turns out to be good enough to win an average Gold Cup, he won't be good enough.
 
Does anyone think Beef or Salmon might have a Grand National in him? Given the way the top rated horses are treated he'd probably get in around the 160 mark. Look after himself (as he is want to do anyway) on the first circuit and start making his ground when the fences are 2 foot lower?

I have it in the back of my mind that Hourigan has said he'd never run him, though I'm not sure whether he actually said it, or even if he did, whether it could be taken on trust. If he managed not to refuse at The Chair I could see the extra distance being right up his street.
 
King is well able to ready horses first time out - Howle Hill won a competitive handicap about a half hour before MWDS. I dont believe that it was just fitness. If it was what was King playing at if the horse was so unfit in such a big race for such a big pot. I always held him in high regard. Everyone was suckered in by him, pricewise, the entire betting public. Exotic Dancer was just about three times his price, remember. The horse raced for third once blown up but could barely trot past the post. I would just hope that King hasnt left the rest of the season there at Haydock.

I personally think fit or unfit the horse didnt really stay, and just like Exotic Dancer after Aintree, the horse has plenty of questions to answer. As Melendez suggests, he hasnt shown anything to suggest that he can get within 5-6 lengths of the first two in any case.
 
I agree Melendez that he had something to prove but it still doesn't remove the fact that you cannot judge a horse that clearly wasn't fit.

Garney, you are doing King a major dis-service there. You are assuming that all horses are the same and take the same amount to get fit; they don't. Some horses are gross and stuffy and very hard to get fit at home, not least fit enough to get competitive in a Grade One chase against the two best chasers in the land (if not in Europe), run at a breakneck pace. I realise that is easy to say in hindsight - I backed the horse and should have realised myself that he wouldn't be as fit as I had hoped he would be. MWDS really is a very big horse, just the type who you can't get fully fit at home (Denman is another for those who are thinking of backing him on Saturday ~ my biggest doubt surrounding him is whether he'll be fit enough to land such a prize first time up) so needs the first run of the season, at least.

The thing is, you cannot always tell at home whether they are fit enough to still be there fighting at the end of that 3m Grade 1 chase, run in desperately tiring ground remember, since you won't be putting them to such a test at home.

It is also worth pointing out that I watched the race with a very famous ex-jockey who is now training (I know how you hate name dropping so I shan't!!!! :P ) and on commenting that actually MWDS looked pretty fit, he agreed with me, we were both impressed that he looked pretty tight and certainly looked ready to do himself justice.

However, the evidence of the race stands against that and 35 minutes is one hell of a long time for a horse to blow after a race.
 
I wouldn't necessarily lose sight of the fact that it was a particularly fast race. MWDS has never have been asked to go that fast before over that trip, and so was entering new territory. You might point to his stayers hurdle career, but this division routinely turns out the slowest races across the board (about 13% below standard class par, and frequently slower than that). He did however, win a fast run Arkle, so he's not without speed, it's just that he's never demonstrated previously he can win a fast race over the extra mile. As I've said before, fast times aren't run by 'speed' horses. A fast time is run as a result of banging out a series of fractions and doing so by the even distribution of ones energy across the race distance. Effectively, the fastest horses aren't the ones with the greatest acceleration, (which is more typical of the flat) but those which are the last to start slowing up; stamina in any other langauage.

As Dom says though, he travelled well earning the nomination at the half way mark from Norman Williamson I think it was?. For all intents and purposes he did appear to simply empty, which makes me think it was a stamina issue related to a fast pace. His performance bore all the hallmarks of a horse that gets caught out thus, though you tend to see it more with novices whose lofty reputations earned in slowly run races get destroyed when they're asked to go quick for the first time (often at the festival)

I know King has VPU in the locker, but to my mind (and certainly if I were the owner) I'd be thinking in terms of the Champion Chase, with its additional prestige, prize money, and the fact that it looks weaker than it has for the last few years.

It wasn't very strong last year, possibly evidenced by VPU becoming only the second 6yo in the races history to win. Obviously Well Chiefs departure meant that we will never know what he was capable of. MWDS on slower ground won the Arkle in a faster time than VPU, and even when weights are levelled off at 11.10 he'd still have beaten the current champion.

I too think it would be silly dismiss MWDS, he was beaten by Redemption of all things FTO last season, but I do feel that the staying chase division is particularly strong, and there are no hiding places for a horse which is only 98% up to the task.
 
I'd give the horse a big chance in the Champion Chase and a massive chance in the Ryanair. It's a bad time to be a Grade 1 staying chaser.
 
I'll also add that I can't buy the "didn't stay" theory until the horse is beaten fair and square - you can't possibly say he didn't stay when he clearly didn't finish his race as he was knackered!

I will be very surprised if the horse doesn't stay 3m over fences, I fully believe he can, and will, stay that and further. The evidence is there - no matter what is said about him being all out, you don't win a Stayers' Hurdle, a Grade One championship event against the best staying hurdlers in the country, over 3m up the Cheltenham hill, without staying!!!!

Of course there is always the point that generally, most 3m hurdlers will want 3 1/2 miles plus over fences!!! :D
 
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