Betfair Chase

davidjohnson said:
Having watched the Gold Cup last night for the first time in ages, I'd forgotton how well Kauto Star showed up for a long way. If anything, I think Ruby had him going for home too far out, initially taken on by Imperial Commander, and then Denman, eventually softened for Long Run to pick up the pieces before the last 2 fences. With a view to a flat 3m, there;s absolutely no way that Long Run shaped like an 11 length better horse than Kauto Star that day. He's even older now though, and has to put the Punchestown flop behind him, but 8/1 for one last big day makes some appeal to me.
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KAUTO STAR is overpriced for his heavyweight clash with Long Run in Saturday's Betfair Chase, his jockey Ruby Walsh has said.

Walsh has enjoyed the most productive riding relationship of his career with Kauto Star and the pair have marched to two Gold Cups and four King Georges together.

“I’m looking forward to getting back on Kauto Star, a horse who has given me so many incredible moments,” said Walsh.

Kauto Star is best-priced at 8-1 for the 3m Grade 1 - a price Walsh believes underestimates his old companion, who, although now 11 and in the twilight of his illustrious career, is being primed for each race as if it were his last.

“You’d have to say he’s a big price as Long Run comes here as defending champion as this will be a stepping stone to the King George and Gold Cup," Walsh said to racinguk.com

“In contrast, every day now could be D-day for Kauto Star - I know Paul’s worked him pretty hard so he definitely won’t be lacking for fitness.”

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls on Tuesday revealed Daryl Jacob will ride Master Minded, who runs for the first time in Ascot's Amlin 1965 Chase.

Clive Smith, who owns Kauto Star and Master Minded, had expressed concerns about running both on the same day, but connections have entrusted Jacob with the ride on Master Minded.

"Ruby will ride all my Haydock horses on Friday and Saturday, and Daryl will ride my Ascot runners," Nicholls wrote on his Betfair column.

"Clearly, it makes sense for Ruby to partner Kauto Star. But while Noel [Fehily] was in the frame for Master Minded, having won the Ascot raceon him last year and next time up at Cheltenham too, Daryl is now our second jockey and he gets the ride.

"Daryl has done a lot of work and schooling on Master Minded at home too."
 
Yes same here.
looked at Kauto,TFR,Diamond and Weird Al.Kauto at 10's was good value at the start of the week but not 6's.I was a big fan of TFR but have to pass him over after Cheltenham and last time out(although he would have come on for the run) I thought Weird Al found plenty and did it easy enough.Diamond Harry would have had a big say in that one but I think we have to take his fitness in good faith.
So for me it's Weird Al or Diamond Harry e/w-sitting on the fence at the moment.Although it wouldn't surprise me to see Long run and Kauto come home first second in any order.:confused:
 
links781 said:
Are most people of the same opinion that Long Run is unbackable here and are looking for value?
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I think Long Run will win, but Kauto is certainly plausible and the likes of TFR and Weird Al are no mugs. I'm against Diamond Harry for the reasons already expressed.

On the day Long Run at evens would probably do for me. I'd be tempted to have a saver on TFR, but the trainer is playing down his chances.
 
I think they're all looking through rose tinted spectacles or think it's 2009 all over again. Yes, he did run well for a long time in the Gold Cup and if Ruby had kept hold of him for longer he might have finished closer. But I think if Ruby had done that the horse's total lack of gears nowadays would have meant he'd have lost third to What a Friend. Midnight Chase hardly advertised the form either the other day.
 
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I agree with you, Euro.

Nobody would like to see Kauto Star win more than me, but I can't have him at a single figure price - for all the reasons you point out. He also has has a poor run at Punchestown to overcome, and it has to be questionable whether circumstances will allow him to run to anything remotely like his best form.

I'm a marginal sceptic generally about the overall form of Long Run's Gold Cup, and whilst I acknowledge it's top class, I'd have it rated some way lower than the official mark - my belief being that both Kauto Star and Denman hold it down a touch.

Ignore the Gold Cup (easier to say than do, I concede) and Kauto's profile is of a horse in decline; his win in the JNWines looking less rosy than it perhaps seemed at the time, now we know that Sizing Europe isn't a stayer. And even if you do take the Gold Cup into account, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that the test and track at Cheltenham suited him thoroughly, whereas Haydock presents an altogether different challenge - and not one that he will necessarily be best served by.

I'll be delighted if he wins and chuffed if he runs really well - but I've written him off for betting purposes, and girded my loins in preparation for the curtain coming down on a truly stellar career.

Weird Al will be my bet in opposition to the jolly.
 
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links781 said:
Yes same here.
looked at Kauto,TFR,Diamond and Weird Al.Kauto at 10's was good value at the start of the week but not 6's.I was a big fan of TFR but have to pass him over after Cheltenham and last time out(although he would have come on for the run) I thought Weird Al found plenty and did it easy enough.Diamond Harry would have had a big say in that one but I think we have to take his fitness in good faith.
So for me it's Weird Al or Diamond Harry e/w-sitting on the fence at the moment.Although it wouldn't surprise me to see Long run and Kauto come home first second in any order.:confused:
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Saved me having to post as mirrors my thoughts exactly! With Long Run very likely to need the run it is a devilishly difficult puzzle to solve imho. Several viable candidates and Kauto definitely not out of it- I get the feeling KS is primed to the minute and this is his Gold Cup. Weird Al reported to have bled after the GC and that is always a worry but if he could be trusted to perform to his best two races on the trot he would go close. One to watch and savour for me rather that bet. Should be a cracker :)
 
McCain has confirmed that Maguire is going to Ascot to ride Overturn rather than going to Haydock for the Betfair - Significant or is he retained to ride Leslie's horses?
 
Aragorn said:
McCain has confirmed that Maguire is going to Ascot to ride Overturn rather than going to Haydock for the Betfair - Significant or is he retained to ride Leslie's horses?
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Apparently Maguire is restricting himself to bumpers and hurdles for a few days while he gets back to race-riding fitness, so I wouldn't read too much into it at this stage.
 
With Weird Al and TFR both sufferers of bursting and Diamond Harry on his comeback from suspensory problems, Kauto rising 12, and Pure Faith simply Pure Faith, aren’t we a bit mad not getting stuck in to Long Run big time?
 
I'd be surprised if Long Run doesn't win tomorrow. I'm not really concerned about his fitness. This is a Grade 1.
 
...indeed. I wonder how short of work he is anyway... he's reported to be in great nick and they say he has improved physically from last season. He's about the only one in the race who is not potentially suffering from something.
 
Cruella said:
Apparently Maguire is restricting himself to bumpers and hurdles for a few days while he gets back to race-riding fitness, so I wouldn't read too much into it at this stage.
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Or maybe they've figured Overturn is half a stone well in, and has much the better chance?
 
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