Betfair Chase

Traveled over M6 earlier at Haydock.

Rain, sleet and hailstone in one huge hit.

Due to improve but I'd think it's going to be soft at best.
 
granger said:
What's your thinking on CC euro?
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He's bred to stay 3m and was hardly stopping in the Ryanair. The King George mishap isn't a factor here, he clouted a couple and was done for after that, especially on holding ground. I also think his run in the Haldon has been factored into his price here, he made a mistake again in that race and was very fresh. I just think 7 or 8/1 on the day is good value if the ground is decent. Big if.

As a backer of his for the King George though I would prefer to see him in the Amlin.
 
Paul Nicholls ‏@PFNicholls 45m
After discussions with Mr Wylie & with all the rain Tidal Bay is going to run in the Betfair chase Haydock Saturday.
 
Euronymous said:
He's bred to stay 3m and was hardly stopping in the Ryanair. The King George mishap isn't a factor here, he clouted a couple and was done for after that, especially on holding ground. I also think his run in the Haldon has been factored into his price here, he made a mistake again in that race and was very fresh. I just think 7 or 8/1 on the day is good value if the ground is decent. Big if.

As a backer of his for the King George though I would prefer to see him in the Amlin.
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50/1 Gold Cup/Betfair chase
 
Doubt freshness or jumping error had much to do with CC's Haldon defeat. His trainer reported afterwards that he was "nearly flat out" from the start. Factoring everything into his price, I'd have him odds-on not to turn up Saturday, double figures were he to run, and name your own price for the CGC.
 
5/2 Bobs worth isnt bad at all i think. I agree that too much may be made of the course. Its hardly much different to newbury is it?
 
Cue Card and Long Run are the main dangers to Bob's Worth. Neither may not win but they could be the main reason why Bob's worth doesn't.

A strong relentless gallop wouldn't suit Bob's Worth despite him staying well as he tends to get too far behind at times.

He took forever and a day to get going at Cheltenham and the stiff finish allowed him to get back on terms in plenty time to go on and win.

He'd find it much harder to get back at them round Haydock if finding himself trailing 3 fences from home.

Even if Cue Card doesn't turn up Long Run is very likely to be up there and no one knows better than Sam Waley Cohen that the way to beat Bob's Worth is not to hang about. mid race.

Bob's Worth stays very well but he also has a fair bit of speed and if they can't get a lead on him he'll take some beating but the others are unlikely to let the race be run to suit him.

I'm not a fan of S. Conti but he's likely to be at his best and has to be a danger.

But the horse I like is Dynaste. A strong gallop wouldn't bother him at all. He travels really well just of the pace and has the ability to quicken when the time is right.

Granted he has a step in class to cope with but his style of running and the way the race is likely to be run will suit him no end.

I can see him taking it up approaching the 2nd last and murdering these would be staying types for speed.

If Cue Card got conditions to suit he'd be a massive danger but that is very unlikely. Best idea would be to leave him in his box until boxing Day and there must be a chance they'll do just that.

Dynaste looks massive at 7/1 and looks a right bet to me.
 
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would expect one of dynaste or cue card to be withdrawn today. if not both.

in which case it would make the 12/1 on long run a pretty filthy e/w bet.
 
Isnt 9/1 about Tidal Bay too big at the moment. Given the possible defections, the turn of foot he showed at wetherby. That he has run well at the course and has the beating of Bob's Worth on Hennessey form. I know he hasnt got any younger, but given the likely ugly ground conditions, I cant see a better bet.
 
8 declared. cloudy too & prince de beauchene the only defectors.

surprised they've declared cue card. think ground'll be too testing for him.
 
I took the 9/1 e/way first three yesterday about Tidal Bay, thinking that at least 2 or 3 of the bigger names would swerve. Still not convinced they will all show up though.
 
Tanlic said:
Cue Card and Long Run are the main dangers to Bob's Worth. Neither may not win but they could be the main reason why Bob's worth doesn't.

A strong relentless gallop wouldn't suit Bob's Worth despite him staying well as he tends to get too far behind at times.

He took forever and a day to get going at Cheltenham and the stiff finish allowed him to get back on terms in plenty time to go on and win.

He'd find it much harder to get back at them round Haydock if finding himself trailing 3 fences from home.
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Bobs Worth got behind in the Gold Cup because he was "struggling on the rain-softened surface" (BG's quote), and sheer class and stamina enabled him to get back into the race. He had no such problem on better ground in the RSA, travelling like a dream throughout and putting the race to bed without being asked a serious question.
Make no mistake; this is a proper horse, with half-a-stone or more in hand of his rivals, as near his ideal conditions as he's likely to get until next March, and 5/2 will have all the appearance of finding money in the street by tomorrow evening.
 
Official ratings can suck my balls. Are we really supposed to believe that Cue Card is only 3lbs superior to Sir de Grugy.
 
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