Betfair Chase

Cue Card didn't jump with anything like his usual verve, and might never be the same horse he was, imo.
SC raced more forcefully than last year, but still looked likely (at one stage) to be outsped by Menorah, and the notion that he won't stay the Gold Cup looks well wide of the mark. No laydown at the King George trip, mind.
 
That is a possibility reet regards Cue Card.
Even though they were strung out like the washing, not sure he should have been stopping that far out. Certainly has a question mark next to him after that.
TDS also disappointing. Will be interesting to see where they go next with him.
Menorah ran a blinder.
Conti ran his race certainly.

Well done Conti backers.
 
I think cue card is partly the ground and fact he was bustled up. Needs freedom in his jumping perhaps. I think he was stopping (although he didnt entirely) because he simply lost it at those fences. Not many horses would travel well after that.
 
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If it comes up really testing at Kempton I'd like to see Cue Card swerve the race. Further down the line a clash with Dynaste and Ballycasey (who jumped superbly today) in the Ryanair would be tasty.
 
Can't agree that Cue Card might not be the same horse. His Haldon outing was probably within a lb or two of his 2013 run, and the ground seems the most obvious explanation for him jumping less fluently than usual yesterday, and not getting home as well as he appeared to in the Betfair Chase last year.

I took 40+ for the Ryanair a few weeks back (Digger can confirm - he reckoned I was insane) on the basis connections would eventually realise he had no hope of getting the Gold Cup trip, and I am feeling a little more confident about it after yesterday.
 
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Certainly ran like he might not be the same horse.......as I suggested beforehand he may not be over his set back. Hope I am wrong as he is a smashing horse.

I have nothing to say about S Conti apart from I still hate him:lol:
 
If he had jumped those fences fluently he would have been there at the finish. The key is why did he not do so.
 
clivex said:
If he had jumped those fences fluently he would have been there at the finish. The key is why did he not do so.
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Horse's coming to the end of their tether stamina-wise, are more apt to make mistakes.

Cue Card's jumping isn't perhaps quite so slick out of Heavy ground, as it is on quicker.

The jockey is still getting to know the horse, and a more-passive/different approach as he presents the horse at his fences, might see his jumping improve.

Cue Card is beaten 12L by proper Grade 1 horses, on ground that was probably against him, and over a trip where his stamina was questionable even before the juice got into the track. For me, he has run more-or-less bang to my expectations, and I can see absolutely no evidence to support the theory that he is suddenly on the downgrade. That argument, to me, needs a significantly greater leap-of-faith, than the ones offered above.

Each to their own though.
 
His mistakes were too far out for that. Not a chance. I dont believe hes on the downgrade either but it was abundantly clear that he made mistakes when bustled up. That's something they will have to try and deal with. Nichols, smart as ever, spotted it as a weakness.

Not for this thread but i was hugely impressed with al ferof yesterday at ascot. I was dead against him but yet again the master trainer of them all brings one back.
 
Stamina certainly a question mark, and especially in that ground.
Jumping may be a factor in his demise earlier than should have been, even over that trip. To me he was still a long way out. Then again you see how they were strung out, you could maybe forgive him.
What will be interesting is how this lot perform in the King George as this could take some recovering from.

As for Cue Card and the Ryanair. I just wander if the bookies have it in blood from Tizzard himself that he won't run in it as he is still not in the market for it. After yesterday you would have thought so.
 
Siviniaco Conti was a good winner, and he seems fully recovered from the ulcer problems they diagnosed after the Gold Cup, and clearly he needed the run at Wetherby.

With regards Cue Card the jury has to be out, but I've just been looking at the form of the Tizzard yard and there are a fair few who have run below par. Combined with the testing going I'm prepared to give him another chance.

With regards the race they went a really fast gallop for the conditions, and those that didnt handle the ground or aren't true Grade 1 horses were found out for stamina or had jumping frailties exposed. Silviniaco Conti stayed every yard, and Menorah finally put to bed any lingering doubts about his stamina or his ability to handle testing ground.
 
Cue card needs to be ridden differently imo. After he won last year Nicholls decided not to give him a soft lead. Conti was good yesterday but conditions favoured him more than anyone else. Without trawling through stats how many horses win the Gold cup at the 3rd time of asking?
 
I'm with Grassy. I suspect he'll go to the The Ryaniar, and I wonder whether he'll run in The Peterborough rather than the King George.
 
The first thing to note about yesterdays ground compared to last years is that it was wasn't a lot softer yesterday.

These are the chase times from 2013

3m5f =7m 40.1
3m1f[Betfair] = 6m10.10
3m1f = 6m 20.20

Yesterday

3m5f = 7m 44.0
3m1f[Betfair] = 6m10.70
3m1f = 6m 24.30

Fair to say that over those sort of distances the ground difference between this year and last year are relatively small. The Betfair is a near identical time. That may be due to a stronger run race than last year, don't know until i look at sectionals. But the other two races suggest that the ground was probably not that dissimilar.

So if thinking CC has run below form due to the ground being a lot slower..i think its not the case
 
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Fair enough, EC1. What do the times tell you about the trip?

Maybe there's some merit in the argument that CC didn't like being taken-on, that led to the errors, and the way to get him beaten is to serve it up to him. It's certainly possible, but it's far from cast-iron, in my view.
 
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I'll be interested In your findings EC. I heard the first mile was a full 10 seconds faster than last year and if so its not surprising many fell in a heap on testing ground.
 
Was there yesterday, and after being let down by SC for a few quid in the gold cup year before last, I couldn't back him but done it well. We thought Cue Card was going a little bit too quick on the first circuit, possibly why ran out of gas so quickly? great race to watch though.
 
EC1 said:
The first thing to note about yesterdays ground compared to last years is that it was wasn't a lot softer yesterday.

These are the chase times from 2013

3m5f =7m 40.1
3m1f[Betfair] = 6m10.10
3m1f = 6m 20.20

Yesterday

3m5f = 7m 44.0
3m1f[Betfair] = 6m10.70
3m1f = 6m 24.30

Fair to say that over those sort of distances the ground difference between this year and last year are relatively small. The Betfair is a near identical time. That may be due to a stronger run race than last year, don't know until i look at sectionals. But the other two races suggest that the ground was probably not that dissimilar.

So if thinking CC has run below form due to the ground being a lot slower..i think its not the case
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I thought last years betfair was run over 2m 2f (it shortened with every post) or whatever it was. So............??
 
he has been taken on before though and shook them off

i think that being eyeballed can make a horse use energy without actually it being that they are going too fast that wastes it...maybe having a horse in the peripheal makes some horses nervous so they burn energy that way..i'm just making it up here:)..but to me its not always one horse making another go faster than they are comfy at running at... it may be the case here that they went too fast..i'll do some timings of the four 3m?f races and see what it looks like. Maybe they went steady last year..or its somewhere in between
 
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EC1 said:
he has been taken on before though and shook them off

i think that being eyeballed can make a horse use energy without actually it being that they are going too fast that wastes it...maybe having a horse in the peripheal makes some horses nervous so they burn energy that way..i'm just making it up here:)..but to me its not always one horse making another go faster than they are comfy in... it may be the case here that they went too fast..i'll do some timings of the four 3m?f races and see what it looks like.
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Im not sure that he has been taken on quite like that though. It was a classic bustling up and certainly pre planned. They knew. And i think that is right. Remember carvills hill?
 
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