Betfair Hurdle, Newbury, Sat Feb 8

Desert Orchid said:
Looking a decent lay-off prospect now. As short as 10/1 and best priced 14/1.
Click to expand...

12 to Back for pennies, and nothing to Lay at present.....though admittedly they've just opened the day-of-race market.

Price hasn't moved far enough for my tastes to make laying-off worthwhile. I'd rather go to war with a 10/1 chance I'd backed at 25's, than faff about trying to cover my stake.
 
So why isn't AP riding Alaivan then ? He's ridden Gibb River once before and won on it.
 
Last edited:
Diamond Geezer said:
So why isn't AP riding Alaivan then ? He's ridden Gibb River once before and won on it.
Click to expand...

Would he do 10st 5 ?

Prompter is a potentially very well treated horse for this. Classy on the flat, and doesn't look to have been given too aggressive time of things of late over hurdles. Will love the ground and a strongly run 2m on a galloping track ideal for him, and should get a nice toe into it. Far too big at 40/1.

Also like Smashing.
 
I will have to take out some sickness insurance on Alaivan, having backed him on each of his runs this season in the knowledge he is very well handicapped on his best form.

I need to double check Far West's ground requirements.

Question: is 25/1 to four places a better bet than 12/1 to 5 places?
 
Last edited:
Diamond Geezer said:
So why isn't AP riding Alaivan then ? He's ridden Gibb River once before and won on it.
Click to expand...

Gibb River - non runner I think - McCoy's lowest weight was 10-5 in last 12 months - Alavain jockey claiming 5lb.

Looks like - Jumps Road - Vendor & Recession Proof n/r's as well
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Question: is 25/1 to four places a better bet than 12/1 to 5 places?
Click to expand...

Way worse.

Obviously the win part is way worse value.

But on the place part it also stinks.

You are getting half the odds for one extra place. So unless you think the odds of the horse finishing fifth are just as good asthe combined odds of it finishing 1st, second, third and fouth, it's not good value.
 
Ta. At what price would it become value?

(Just curious - I know some of yous guys deal in the maths of it all.)
 
Ta. At what price would it become value?

(Just curious - I know some of yous guys deal in the maths of it all.)
 
If you eliminate the win part of the bet, around 20/1.

If you oversimpligy it:

You're getting 6.25 to 1 for 4 places. Or 5 to 1 for 5 places.

6.25 * 4 = 5 * 5.

Now it is not that simple, but the answer is close.

Given that the win part of the bet is still a bet, I would only go for it with 22/1 and even still it is six of one, half a dozen of another.

The fraction of the odds (1/4 or 1/5) is a more important indicator.
 
tiggers1972;553319 Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post Gibb River - non runner I think - McCoy's lowest weight was 10-5 in last 12 months - Alavain jockey claiming 5lb. Looks like - Jumps Road - Vendor & Recession Proof n/r's as well said:
http://www.attheraces.com/article.a...ir+glory&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Thu
Click to expand...

There was no betting on these four for most of the day so I presumed they were n/r's - it usually works that way - anyway I'm glad Jumps Road is running. Thanks tiggers
 
Jumps Road looks a great price at 33s ew 1-5 although probably flattered in the International


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top