Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

For anyone not aware, to get an idea of how the weights will shape up and how well handicapped or otherwise they are compared with RPRs, the RP card can be useful:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2019-02-09/719309

Click on 'OR' and it will sort the field in order of current ORs.

Check across to the final column and you'll see how the RPRs compare.

Mohaayed will be set 11-12 as things stand and it's easy to work out what the rest of the weights will be. Obviously this will change as horses are re-handicapped between now and publication of the weights but it's always good to get an early sighter of the handicap.

Looks like Magic Dancer will be top-rated on RPRs for now, 9lbs ahead of his OR but no guarantee he'd make the cut and might need to win and therefore go up the weights to do so, which in turn would nullify that advantage. 50/1 at present.

Me? I think Mont Des Avaloirs (33/1) hasn't been off an inch so far this season and the fact he's been entered in spite of his poor finishing efforts might speak volumes. He's the one that immediately catches my eye.
 
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I have taken the 33/1 about Sayar.

He looked like he might shape into a Supreme horse early in his career (would have been mentioned in the same breath as Sharjah back then), before being hampered by a few setbacks.

It’s hard to get a firm grasp on what he has achieved, but he won his first two novices with ease before injury intervened, and went well for a long way in a Grade 2 on his return from absence behind Getabird, in the spring at Fairyhouse.

Obviously, his chance depends to a large extent on what the UK handicapper does, but he remains unexposed, and if he’s awared anything close to his current Irish mark of 137, he has the potential to be a real market-springer.

I’ve no idea if the entry is remotely serious, and the Irish hardly have a good record in the race, but he immediately jumped out at me when I saw the entry.
 
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I'm going to spend some time today checking out this Al Dancer chappie.

Paul Kealy tips him for both this race and the Supreme and I'm pretty sure when PK puts up anything of NTD's as a strong fancy the strike rate is pretty high.

I remember being very impressed with AD last time out but haven't done the times for that meeting for some reason. It looks like PK has accessed some significant sectionals.
 
I've still to look at sectionals but the other signs are mixed.

He was a comfortable wide-margin winner in easily the fastest time over hurdles on the day. It was a class 3 race and only one of the beaten horses (20+ lengths) has run since, beaten 10+ lengths in a class 4 race. On my figures its form over the two races is in the same ball park.

On times, I have AD 16lbs faster on the day than Elixir De Nutz (C&D) and 46lbs faster than Aaron Lad (3m) but EDN was never really pressed that day. It was actually the same day that The Worlds End put up on my figures an RSA-winning time, 24lbs faster than Cogry who forced a strong pace in his race and went up to 142 for it.

I also have quite a difference in going allowances between the hurdles and chase courses that day. If I applied the chase g/a to the hurdles course those races would be slow.
 
Gary Moore has won this race three times. He has a horse called Not Never entered. He could only finish 12th last time behind Mohaayed when stepped up in class at Ascot, but it was his first run since February 2018. His overall profile shows he has improved in the handicap hurdles, and I look forward to hopefully seeing him run again at Fontwell on Monday, where he can hopefully show he is worth running at Newbury, (if he makes the cut). He might need a penalty.
 
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I can't say the sectionals are particularly informative. EDN was odds on and not pressed early in the race. The handicap started off at a similar modest pace but picked up after the second where they moved two seconds ahead. the gap was maintained until the handicap took another second out of EDN when AD and another horse started hassling the leader. They were getting going while EDN was under no pressure at the front and the handicap pulled another two seconds clear over the next two. But although AD was stretching clear after the last, EDN pulled back two seconds (say ten lengths) on him from the last. I'd say that was pretty good on EDN's part and the runner up Jarvey's Plate has since hacked up in a better race turning over I Can't Explain in the process.

At the moment, I have to say I'm not going to be rushing in to back Al Dancer.
 
Marble said:
Gary Moore has won this race three times. He has a horse called Not Never entered. He could only finish 12th last time behind Mohaayed when stepped up in class at Ascot, but it was his first run since February 2018. His overall profile shows he has improved in the handicap hurdles, and I look forward to hopefully seeing him run again at Fontwell on Monday, where he can hopefully show he is worth running at Newbury, (if he makes the cut). He might need a penalty.
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I backed Not Never that day at long odds (might even have put him up on the long shot thread) and the first thing that went through my head when I saw the jockey letting them get away from him on the run up from Swinley Bottom was "Schweppes".

Edit - just checked - I only got 14/1 NN that day so unlikely to have made the LS thread.
 
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I've looked again at the race entries trying to find something with a more realistic chance on the formbook than my early pick, Not Never, (who I may still have a saver on nearer the race, if he gets in). One piece of form that looks rather smart, which wasn't on my radar previously is Leoncavello's third behind Sharjah at Galway in August 2018. Richard Newland's horse wasn't beaten far, and a mark in the 140's doesn't look too bad now. Sharjah could go up to the 160's after the Irish Champion. Bedrock was back in fourth that day and he has form which closely ties in with Sharjah. So Leoncavello is great value at 33/1 with Bet 365 and Betfair on the above evidence. He will be coming back from a break after getting turned over at 1/2 in a novice chase though. This is probably just the thing he needed, as his hurdle career ain't over yet!
 
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Warren Greatrex will want the ground to be on the good side of soft for Western Ryder who he dropped back to 2 miles at Ascot.

He would have to be pleased with that run on that ground..can't imagine he'll be too thrilled with the 5lb rise but he does think there's a big race in him.

Long way to go but have taken 33/1
 
Marble said:
I've looked again at the race entries trying to find something with a more realistic chance on the formbook than my early pick, Not Never, (who I may still have a saver on nearer the race, if he gets in). One piece of form that looks rather smart, which wasn't on my radar previously is Leoncavello's third behind Sharjah at Galway in August 2018. Richard Newland's horse wasn't beaten far, and a mark in the 140's doesn't look too bad now. Sharjah could go up to the 160's after the Irish Champion. Bedrock was back in fourth that day and he has form which closely ties in with Sharjah. So Leoncavello is great value at 33/1 with Bet 365 and Betfair on the above evidence. He will be coming back from a break after getting turned over at 1/2 in a novice chase though. This is probably just the thing he needed, as his hurdle career ain't over yet!
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It does look like Richard Newland has revitalised Leoncavallo, a horse who started his career as a Godolphin/Appleby but could only manage a rating on the Flat of 68 after one Class 6 (six) win to his name.

A switch to John Ferguson for a jumps campaign brought about immediate success with five hurdling wins in a row taking him to 140 and might have made the sixth if he'd stayed on his feet when attempting to confirm previous form with Sceau Royal in the Triumph Trial race before being well beaten in the Triumph itself.

Returned to Appleby for the Flat, a narrow win in a Class 5 handicap was followed by a narrower defeat in another C5 race off 5lbs higher and for which he remains on 73 all this time later, suggesting his level over jumps should be around 115.

He then went to Ben Pauling for his next hurdles campaign off 139 but a promising start when failing to give Sceau Royal weight was followed by one disappointment after another. By the time Newland took charge of him towards the end of last season his mark was back down to 133 but he took advantage of it with a win which put him back up to 140, off which he ran at Galway. I have a very nice rating for him for that (suggesting, as an aside, he'd trounce Solomon Grey off their respective marks) and his new OR seriously under-rates him, I think.

He really should have won his chase debut so I wonder whether he didn't enjoy fencing or whether his simian tendencies are resurfacing. That would be my major worry with him but, as I say, that Galway form is excellent.
 
Thanks for putting a bit of context into his form. Enjoyed the read. I agree he'd probably trounce Solomon Grey over two miles, though I would reiterate Solomon's best form in future is likely to be over longer distances, i.e 2M4F and further.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I backed Not Never that day at long odds (might even have put him up on the long shot thread) and the first thing that went through my head when I saw the jockey letting them get away from him on the run up from Swinley Bottom was "Schweppes".

Edit - just checked - I only got 14/1 NN that day so unlikely to have made the LS thread.
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What did you make of Not Never's performance today, DO? It looked like he needed every yard of the extra trip, but I thought it was quite an eye-catching performance, nevertheless. A faster pace over a shorter distance such as The Betfair Hurdle could suit, and his price has shortened today, which makes plenty of sense. Between him and Leoncavello I have my two each way plays, albeit anti-post, to nibble at in the next few weeks. I need two possible runners, as it's always wiser not to put all your eggs in one basket in these instances.
 
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I've only just got in after being out all afternoon, Marble. I'd no idea NN was running today as I don't usually look at midweek racing. If I get a chance over the next few days I'll try and get a look.
 
That's what GG.alerts are for! I always put my horses of interest in my GG.co.uk alerts, so that I know when they are going to run. It certainly helps. I look forward to your anaylisis.
 
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No, I honestly haven't been on any GG.com forum. I have only used that site for the GG alerts, but that's now called gg.co.uk isn't it? ( The alerts site I mean). I first went on Neigh forum, then was on The Racing Forum for a bit, but have only posted on talking horses the past half a dozen years. I've no idea who the imposter was, but in the words of Shaggy, it wasn't me.
 
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Marble said:
That's what GG.alerts are for! I always put my horses of interest in my GG.co.uk alerts, so that I know when they are going to run. It certainly helps. I look forward to your anaylisis.
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I have alerts coming in from ATR but NN isn't on my list. I wouldn't be interested in backing him ahead of Newbury as I'm not convinced he can afford a penalty.
 
This Marble character on GG.com? Do we have any key information on him/her. What things that he or she was saying on there, anything notable, or something that I might find interesting?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I have alerts coming in from ATR but NN isn't on my list. I wouldn't be interested in backing him ahead of Newbury as I'm not convinced he can afford a penalty.
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He definitely knows how to win handicap hurdles, that's for sure. He needs to go up just to make the cut though. On 125 he wouldn't have a hope in hell's chance. I think this fella is thriving in Gary Moore's yard. I reckon he will get shorter in the weeks to come, though I am not forcing anyone to back him now. If he could take in another handicap hurdle before the Betfair that would make things very interesting.
 
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