Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

Marble said:
On 125 he wouldn't have a hope in hell's chance.
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129 made the cut last year.
126 made it in 2017.
124 made it in 2014.

I reckon if it's a serious target for NN Moore might be tempted to see how the race is shaping up before going for a penalty.
 
Will he race off his revised mark, which should be made clear in the next few days? The weights haven't been published yet. 125 will not make the cut. Wishful thinking to think it would.
 
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Reading between the lines of your earlier post without knowing the result I thought NN had merely run promisingly today rather than winning. He'll go up about 5lbs for it (his new OR will be released next Tuesday) which will make it touch and go about whether he makes the cut. It might all hinge on the prevailing ground conditions.

In any event, we don't know yet whether he'll be the stable's number one hope.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Reading between the lines of your earlier post without knowing the result I thought NN had merely run promisingly today rather than winning. He'll go up about 5lbs for it (his new OR will be released next Tuesday) which will make it touch and go about whether he makes the cut. It might all hinge on the prevailing ground conditions. I am not saying he's a good thing or anything silly this far.out, but he will shorten up, the more likely it appears that he will run next month, if indeed that's the case.

In any event, we don't know yet whether he'll be the stable's number one hope.
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It could be as much as 7 or 8 pounds I reckon,, from 125 which he is now, possibly to 132 or 133. He keeps defying his revised handicap mark, so I expect him to be punished now, although having said that, it will actually ensure he makes the cut, so should work out okay. He looked workmanlike today, (far from flashy), but he gets the job done. He knows where the winning post is. A lot of horses who win races on the bounce seem to have these attributes. Martin Pipe used to train a lot of these types. They wouldn't win very impressively, but as a result, the handicapper could never really get a measure of them until they'd won half a dozen races. It's still very early days in terms of the Betfair Hurdle, but I'll be keeping Not Never on my side.
 
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During the 60's Capt Ryan Price landed 4 massive gamble in the Schweppes Gold Trophy all ridden by Josh Gifford

Josh landed a bit of a touch as a trainer with Deep Sensation 25 odd years later and now son Nicky is out the emulate his dad with the JP owned Didtheyleaveuoutto

He had this to say "If he is the horse I think he is, then I would snap your hands off for 139"

He did add he needs god ground

Yet another reason not to be jumping on too early to anything
 
The weights

105b8me.jpg
 
I didn't realise the weights came out today (not paying attention to earlier stuff) so it looks like Not Never will get a penalty rather than run off his new OR. He might be well in (if he's raised by more than the penalty), he might not.
 
Grasshopper said:
Happy with 10-7 for Sayar, though strongly suspect it was a throwaway entry.
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Maybe not now that they've seen his mark. 134??

Considering my earlier comment:

Desert Orchid said:
If it's 137 in Ireland, the chances are he'll be rated around 143.
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He's arguably chucked in. I'd really like to know the handicapper's thinking on this one.
 
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Just done a quick trawl of the Irish entries. This is how their marks compare:

Saglawy 2lbs higher than in Ireland (+2)
Jetez +9
Uradel +5
Dolciano Dici =
Sayar -3
High Expectations +4
Cut The Mustard +5


Further cause for curiosity re Sayar...
 
Can’t complain about that mark, though my enthusiasm is tempered somewhat.

Sayar is essentially still unproven, and it would be straightforward enough to make a form case, that places him somewhere around his UK and IRE marks. Maybe that’s as good as he is. Also, he’s presumably not entirely straightforward to train, and it does take a bit of a leap of faith, to align with him. His odds haven’t moved an inch since the weights were released either.

On the plus side, he’s unexposed, and if he was knocking Graded-level as a novice (think he had the Royal Bond entry), he might be a handsomely-handicapped horse.

I still think he’s an unlikely runner, albeit, I agree they might now be a bit more inclined, to take a closer look, if they think he does retain his ability.
 
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I pencilled in Equus Amadeus as one to follow after Doncaster and have taken some of the 40s for this (insurance). He is entered this weekend in a less competitive heat. Monsieur Le Coq struck me as well handicapped. Those are my two.
 
Desert Orchid said:
For anyone not aware, to get an idea of how the weights will shape up and how well handicapped or otherwise they are compared with RPRs, the RP card can be useful.

Looks like Magic Dancer will be top-rated on RPRs for now, 9lbs ahead of his OR but no guarantee he'd make the cut and might need to win and therefore go up the weights to do so, which in turn would nullify that advantage. 50/1 at present.
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Click on the RPR column in the RP card and Magic Dancer is indeed top on RPRs at the moment and still 50/1 but obviously might not get in.

But there might still be loads of value out there. The top 13 or 14 on RPRs are all priced between 20/1 and 50/1. The favourites are well down the list, especially Getaway Trump who is nearer bottom than top.

I probably won't manage to do a trawl of my own ratings until some time next week but I wouldn't touch the favourites with a barge pole until much nearer the day.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't touch the favourites with a barge pole until much nearer the day.
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I wouldn't even touch them on the day, but amen to this. I think you are probably right about there being good value knocking about in the anti post market. If you've got an opinion on what could run well, which I have, then have no fear, and get stuck in.
 
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According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
 
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Marble said:
According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
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I think you'll find that that's the RP adding the 5lb penalty to his rating when the handicap was framed.

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/regulation/official-ratings/ratings-database/#!?q=not never
 
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Thanks. I'm even more confused now though. So will he, A) run off 130 B) run off a revised mark when this is published), C) run with the revised mark plus the penalty?
 
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archie said:
The HRI website doesn't show a current official rating for Sayar in Ireland.
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It was 137 when he last raced over hurdles (well beaten behind Getabird in April) according the RP and that's still showing as its OR. Presumably there's no HRI rating because he hasn't raced over hurdles since then. Perhaps the handicapper has asked his Irish counterpart what rating Sayar would be on if entered for a handicap and he's been told 134.
 
Marble said:
According to the entries on the Racing Post Betfair Hurdle page Not Never has been officially raised to 130, which puts him at number 47 in the list to get in. I think that rise is what you predicted. I'm assuming this means he doesn't carry the penalty? Slightly confused...
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No, it's a 5lbs penalty (or it was when I checked last night). His new mark won't be published until next Tuesday.

Edit - I see archie has already addressed this point.
 
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So that means he will not be running off his revised mark then. Only the penalty.
 
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