A tactic I've started to employ is to try and attack races where I don't like the first couple in the betting. One of the guys I learned a lot from used to say start assessing the form from the back end of the market look at the outsiders first. His logic was once you first come across something you like you can get quite attached to that initial fancy and cease to look much further. If you'd started at the front of the betting and worked outwards you probably settle on something with a chance in the first few and never really give serious consideration to those at longer prices. You may think that you don't do this personally because you "do" back longer priced horses, but how many times when doing this you'd have to ask yourself would you have those particular types on your radar before race days i.e either tracker horses or horses you're unintentionally following over a cliff.
The one thing I never do is look at the market before studying a race. With handicaps I always do them in racecard order, with non-handicaps I'll either tabulate them in order of OR or RPR because you can usually dismiss the outsiders as having no chance and don't even need to study them, thereby saving time.
Once I've done all the ratings I tabulate them in order from the top rated down. Then I work on a short list which can end up quite a long list depending on how tight my figures show the race to be. Only then do I start to look at the market.
Yesterday, for example, among the first horses I ruled out were Thosedaysaregone and Seddon. I ended up backing Colonial Dreams but not each-way but he ran his race and I have no complaints. He was beaten by a bigger improver.
Another route I take, which people might pick up from my posts is identifying potential winners well in advance. The most glaring example was when I started the original Rooster Booster/Champion Hurdle thread after coming up with a figure that very much put the grey in the picture for Cheltenham - five months or so before the race. I think when you know what it takes to win a certain race and you come across something that matches it, that's when to go in ante-post. By the time the race comes round it's always possible something else will end up with even better credentials but usually you've already got a bit of value.
I remember putting up Blue Bajan for the Betfair in 2008, backing it ante-post at all sorts of prices from 50/1 down to 35/1 and laying them all off at 7/1. He was off 129 but was a 111 Flat horse who held an entry for the Supreme. He never got competitive on the day but later won the Swinton off 134 by eight lengths at 4/1f. That was a value ante-post bet that didn't come off.
Similarly, I put up John Constable at long odds off something like 131 in 2017 only for him to be scratched. He too won the Swinton by no less than 14 lengths at 5/1f off 134. Another excellent value ante-post Schweppes bet that went west.
Being right at the wrong time has been my real problem lately.
So far I haven't looked at the race. I'll do so once the weights are actually published. If I come across another Blue Bajan or John Constable I'll post it and you can make sure you back it for the Swinton :lol:
- I'm still not over him winning the County in 2015. Was on for my life at Massive prices of 33/1+ for both the Betfair Hurdle (SP 9/1) and the Imperial Cup (SP 9/1) in Feb & March of that year and resigned myself to the fact I was simply barking up the wrong tree. 
