Betfair Hurdle

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
11,754
Location
Bangkok Thailand
I'd love to here from anyone who has had a good bet on the winner of this race over the years. For me it's the best betting race of the season

Loving a punt I really look forward to the race every year. I guess it goes back to the days when Capt Ryan Price landed 5 massive gambles on the trot with Elan, Hill House Le Vermontois and Rosyth twice.

A horse who's been laid out for this but is ground dependent is Cotton Mill.

He'd be ok with a bit of cut but ideally the better the ground the better his chance.

Off 10st10lbs I have already dabbled a bit on the machine as he was too big at 21.

John Ferguson is deadly when it comes to getting them spot on so I've no worries about fitness just big black clouds staying away from Newbury.

The other horse that I thought was interesting is Grumeti until Alan King said he hopes to have him ready for Cheltenham.......he's hardly going to be ready for Newbury if that's the case so I'd be careful if anyone is thinking of backing him.

I'll stick with Cotton Mill and hope the groundis something approaching decent.
 
I'm interested in His Excellency at double figure prices. The horse has only raced for David Pipe since August, before that was with Gordon Elliot in Ireland. Has a clear preference for a left-handed track, and I think his second to Shooters Wood giving weight away at Cheltenham was good, then decent third behind Sanctuare show the horse is in reasonable form, and whilst he's unlikely now to be a world beater over fences there could be a big run in a handicap hurdle in him. I got the impression from watching one of his races there could be a lot of improvement in the horse if they can work it out, been noted as flashing its tail more than once and jumped awkwardly but still finished second two starts ago at Cheltenham. He also won a grade 2 juvenille hurdle at Leopardtown in December 2011, so a horse with ability and if he goes for this off a light weight I wouldn't lay you 33/1 thats for sure.

A brilliant race you're right about that, Tanlic.
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
I'd love to here from anyone who has had a good bet on the winner of this race over the years. For me it's the best betting race of the season.
Click to expand...
I reckon any winning bet in this is a good one!

I've been rubbish in recent seasons following a pretty golden spell before that with Wingman (08), Heathcote (50/1 07), Essex (05), Rooster Booster (2nd, ns to Geos 04), and Spirit Leader (03) but I tend to bet two or three, occasionally more, in the race!

It's the handicap hurdle of the season for me whether I punt the winner or not.

I still haven't quite got over Blue Bajan, which I was all over like a rash the first time he ran in it while still a novice. He was off something silly in the 120s that day while I had him down as a 150-ish and he never got competitive yet subsequently ran well in the Supreme before hacking up in the Swinton off a much higher mark.
 
Someone laid him at 90 on the machine Martin....better them than me. Just under 4k traded on Cotton Mill and only MTOY traded more but still 4th in the betting with Betfair which means the layers are happy to lay him as the chances of good ground must be fairly slim.

Amaizingly Punjabi has been backed.

Plenty money for MTOY between 5 and 7 . Have to wonder why they won with him the other day they must have known it would mean him carrying a fair bit of weight. 11 stone

Zarkandar 11st 1lb had a Triumph Hurdle win to his name when he won it. MTOY has nothing like the experience he had......either they think he's as good or better than Darlan was at this stage or he's not going to run.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon any winning bet in this is a good one!

I've been rubbish in recent seasons following a pretty golden spell before that with Wingman (08), Heathcote (50/1 07), Essex (05), Rooster Booster (2nd, ns to Geos 04), and Spirit Leader (03) but I tend to bet two or three, occasionally more, in the race!

It's the handicap hurdle of the season for me whether I punt the winner or not.

I still haven't quite got over Blue Bajan, which I was all over like a rash the first time he ran in it while still a novice. He was off something silly in the 120s that day while I had him down as a 150-ish and he never got competitive yet subsequently ran well in the Supreme before hacking up in the Swinton off a much higher mark.
Click to expand...

I had some luck good and bad.....I backed Persian War when he ended Ryan Prices run beating Major Rose he was 9/2 which was rare fro him.


I backed Snowtown Boy Trained by Fred Winter and ridden John Francome something like 2 dozen times. I was totally convinced he'd beat the favorite who was trained by Mick Easterby with Jonjo up.. (silver something) he did only to be beaten by a 20/1 shot in Bootlaces who landed a big last minute gamble..

I remember losing too much on Tree Tangle and on Lanzarote.

Then I got my first good tip for the race straight from the yard. Josh Gifford had ridden 4 of Ryan Prices winners and was now training and he had a horse called Deep Sensation. The word was Josh wanted to win his old bosses race and this horses was the business............He absolutely hacked up.

2 years later Colin Tinkler who I had bought a horse from and I knew from my days at Rhona Olivers told me to have a good bet on his brothers horse ...Rodeo Star......Think he won about 4 on the trot but was still a big price Was easiest horse to spot in the race had a big white bridle and he was cruising through the race all the way round

Few years later I backed Squires Silk who I was always a big fan of.

On a roll picking the winner was easy......like not I had to wait 11 years until Jonjo won it then John Quinn won it which has me thinking it was again..last thing on my mind would be backing Zarkandarlast I gave him no chance. I had backed Soldatino who had been doing great things at home until the week before the race.....new my fate before the race tried to lay him off in running but I'm still waiting LOL I'd backed Sire De Grugy at the last minute but he failed to bail me out.

Best lift I had was Deep Sensation worst result Snowtown Boy by a mile.
 
Tanlic said:
I had backed Soldatino who had been doing great things at home until the week before the race.....new my fate before the race tried to lay him off in running but I'm still waiting LOL I'd backed Sire De Grugy at the last minute but he failed to bail me out.
Click to expand...

Sire De Grugy was my main bet last year but I wrote before the race if Zarkandar improved from the Triumph as much as the others he'd probably win but the price along with the negative vibes from the yard put me off.
 
Still think Cash And Go will be Henderson's main hope - and he'll take some beating.

Fist
Don't think Ryan Price had 5 on the trot; wasn't Elan trained by John Sutcliffe?
 
reet hard said:
Still think Cash And Go will be Henderson's main hope - and he'll take some beating.
Click to expand...

I'm curious about Hammersly Lake from the Henderson Yard and owned by Michael Buckley, unraced in this country and this is a hot race in which to be making its first appearance.
 
Tanlic said:
Then I got my first good tip for the race straight from the yard. Josh Gifford had ridden 4 of Ryan Prices winners and was now training and he had a horse called Deep Sensation. The word was Josh wanted to win his old bosses race and this horses was the business............He absolutely hacked up.
.
Click to expand...

He won by a short head from Arthur Moore's Joyful Noise if I remember correctly.
 
Tanlic said:
I backed Snowtown Boy Trained by Fred Winter and ridden John Francome something like 2 dozen times. I was totally convinced he'd beat the favorite who was trained by Mick Easterby with Jonjo up.. (silver something) he did only to be beaten by a 20/1 shot in Bootlaces who landed a big last minute gamble..
Click to expand...

The Easterby horse was Silver Shadow but Peter (M H) trained him.
 
Tanlic said:
Plenty money for MTOY between 5 and 7 . Have to wonder why they won with him the other day they must have known it would mean him carrying a fair bit of weight. 11 stone
Click to expand...

He had only had two hurdles runs previously and his hcap mark for the Betfair was provisional. If he'd been beaten at Newbury, his mark would probably have been revised downwards to the extent that a run was not guaranteed. Winning a two-bit novice hurdle would ensure he not only got in, but wasn't bumped too much above the provisional 140.

As it is, he won a shade too tidily, and has been allotted 149. It's possibly more than they would have hoped, but connections have otherwise played their hand perfectly to this point.....imo.
 
Last edited:
HawkWing said:
He won by a short head from Arthur Moore's Joyful Noise if I remember correctly.
Click to expand...
NO!! it was by a long looking head and Richard Rowe won very cheekily while Taffe was knocking 10 bells out of his mount if memory serves me well...don't give a fook anyway he won which is all that matters
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
Poor jockeyship Grassy........Tommy Stack would have got beaten 1/2 length and everyone would have never known he wasn't off......
Click to expand...

Except for those forecasting it the previous November, presumably? :whistle:

The fact that McCoy seemed unperturbed as he strolled-home last time, only enhances confidence. Connections know that the maximum the handicapper would ever put him up is 11lbs......it's that type of race. ;)

Seriously though, if I've read it right, they won't be unduly concerned off 149. GMOOH ensures that he will only carry a maximum of 11-3, so it's not going to be unduly punishing from a weight perspective, even in the worst-case.

That said, I acknowledge the race is a stern enough test for a thrice-raced novice at the best of times, and he is not exactly a certainty based on what we've seen so far. There are several elements of doubt; not least his inexperience, but novices have a fair enough record in the race, and his profile doesn't reek of one to be taking-on too strongly, imo.

These doubts are reflected to an extent in MTOY's current price, and I don't think there is anything particularly sinister in some 6/1 knocking about the village.

:cool:
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
............and everyone would have never known he wasn't off......
Click to expand...


This is a particularly expert piece of manglage, and receives four 'Grasshopper Grammar Goldies'.


Tanlic, you've been postal too long, mate! You need a trip back to Blighty......or 'The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie' on DVD. :D
 
Grasshopper said:
He had only had two hurdles runs previously and his hcap mark for the Betfair was provisional. If he'd been beaten at Newbury, his mark would probably have been revised downwards to the extent that a run was not guaranteed. Winning a two-bit novice hurdle would ensure he not only got in, but wasn't bumped too much above the provisional 140.

As it is, he won a shade too tidily, and has been allotted 149. It's possibly more than they would have hoped, but connections have otherwise played their hand perfectly to this point.....imo.
Click to expand...

i wonder if it matters a lot whether its 140 or 149 when its a one off big race..ordinarily to win a few handicaps you wouldn't want the 149 you would want to nurse the 140..but in a race like the Betfair a horse will be full on trying so the need to hide its true form may not be that important.

I would imagine if you have a horse thats in truth a 150 horse you would want to make sure it never gets much above that level..so get it down to 140..win a couple..then when its over 150 run it in wrong conditions to get back down to 145ish etc ..whereas in this instance they won't care about it being revealed

probably gone a long way about saying that..its probably obvious to everyone anyway
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
i wonder if it matters a lot whether its 140 or 149 when its a one off big race..ordinarily to win a few handicaps you wouldn't want the 149 you would want to nurse the 140..but in a race like the Betfair a horse will be full on trying so the need to hide its true form may not be that important.
Click to expand...

That's kind of my point, EC1. On my reading, I don't think connections really give a tinker's cuss about his handicap mark, suggesting they think he has a bit of scope and would improve beyond any mark he could reasonably be landed with.

That's the theory, anyway. :blink:
 
I can't fancy My Tent Or Yours off 149, that's a stone more than Get Me Out Of Here won it off before finishing a close 2nd in a reasonably decent Supreme. Nothing I've seen of MTOY suggests he's anywhere near to being a stone better novice than GMOH was.

At the moment I like the looks of Pearl Swan and Cash And Go but Henderson has some very interesting entries that I will be paying close attention to nearer the date. Cotton Mill will turn up for one of these handicaps one day and we'll find out how good he is but having done my dough on him for the Ladbroke I'll leave it until the final decs before deciding if he's worth taking a chance on.

On a seperate note I'm surprised to see the handicapper has dropped Punjabi down to 145, that's a massive drop based on complete guesswork. You'd have to think they would have retired him if they didn't think him up to running at a decent level.
 
DukeofMarmalade said:
I can't fancy My Tent Or Yours off 149, that's a stone more than Get Me Out Of Here won it off before finishing a close 2nd in a reasonably decent Supreme. Nothing I've seen of MTOY suggests he's anywhere near to being a stone better novice than GMOH was.

At the moment I like the looks of Pearl Swan and Cash And Go but Henderson has some very interesting entries that I will be paying close attention to nearer the date. Cotton Mill will turn up for one of these handicaps one day and we'll find out how good he is but having done my dough on him for the Ladbroke I'll leave it until the final decs before deciding if he's worth taking a chance on.

On a seperate note I'm surprised to see the handicapper has dropped Punjabi down to 145, that's a massive drop based on complete guesswork. You'd have to think they would have retired him if they didn't think him up to running at a decent level.
Click to expand...

good post..interesting to compare previous similar level horses in that way.

Punjabi..another conundrum that we face most days...the decent performer dropping in weights..and then trying to guage if its really well in or gone at the game...difficult to work out
 
DukeofMarmalade said:
I can't fancy My Tent Or Yours off 149, that's a stone more than Get Me Out Of Here won it off before finishing a close 2nd in a reasonably decent Supreme. Nothing I've seen of MTOY suggests he's anywhere near to being a stone better novice than GMOH was.
Click to expand...

It's true GMOOH won off a mark of 135, but it's equally true that he made the handicapper look like a rear-end when he won.

It's also true that GMOOH had raced three times in ordinary novices hurdles - at Worcester, then Ffos Las, before he won his TGT prep over C&D at Newbury. If we look at Darlan, he find also went to Newbury after three runs novice hurdles (with his prep coming at Taunton), and ran off 146 in the Betfair. We'll never know, but he certainly had the look of a horse that was going to go close.

I'm not saying MTOY is chucked-in off 149, but the similarities between his profile - and that of two other horses in the same ownership - suggest that it's a race McManus is quite happy to target with his top-novice prospects. And they tend to run big races when they're deemed good enough to be confirmed.

If I can get to the tape with my bet, I'll be happy enough.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top