Betfair Hurdle

I'll just bring something up re MTOY

Has run twice now at left handed Newbury and lost both at 8/11 & 4/11...and lost albeit to a good un at LH Aintree

Has run 3 times right handed ..won all 3
 
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Inis Meain, another of Barry Connells big money buys, could be interesting for this, depending on how he goes in the Boylesports Hurdle Saturday of course
 
EC1 said:
I'll just bring something up re MTOY

Has run twice now at left handed Newbury and lost both at 8/11 & 4/11...and lost albeit to a good un at LH Aintree

Has run 3 times right handed ..won all 3
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True....but he also comes out as the best horse at the weights in all three defeats; including both at Newbury. :cool:
 
MTOY has a much better chance in the Supreme rather than in the Tote on than mark

But in general I dont think he will win Neither of them.
 
To win the Schweppes off 149, MTOY would need to be the best novice we've seen since Golden Cygnet.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. I know which one I think.
 
Hardly DO. If Golden Cygnet was around and was carrying 11 stone against the likely opposition he'd win by a hurdle but he'd need to be good that's for sure.

Darlan looked the likely winner last season and he was off 146 and he never ended up the top novice


If he's as good as Darlan he's probably not that badly in. There's 140 horses and 140 horses and more than a few wouldn't win a hot handicap like this off any mark.


Nicky Henderson will have a very good idea if MTOY is good enough or not.

Let's not forget who else we are dealing with here.....JP McManus and Jonjo. GMOOH may well have won last year but for being badly hampered by Darlan's fall and he'll end up with 11st4lbs on his back if the talented Maurice Linehan rides..he's also got the magical O'Neill "PU" next to his name. Jonjo has never been under any illusions about the horse he knew he wasn't good enough for the Champion Hurdle but he also knows he's good enough to win any handicap going and 2 or 3 lbs extra doesn't make a whole lot of difference to him when he's on song.

JP also has It's A Gimme as well who ran Raya Star to 1/2 length so he's not short of ammo.


tbh I doubt if we'll see the JP millions come for any of them unless It's A Gimme is a old fashioned plot. Darlan and GMOOH went off at double figures last year and they may well have finished first and second with luck.

As DO says MTOY would have to be some horse to win this and probably would have to be as good as Golden Cygnet before JP would be getting stuck in.

If I end up backing another horse in the race having backed Cotton Mill already I would be more inclined to back Cash and Go than any of the JP runners.

While his more illustrious table companions are taking dead aim at the Champion Hurdle this has been his main target since day one.

He looks a rock solid horse and the type that might actually be thrown in. He ran a cracker in the Racing post and Nicky will know a lot more about him by now. He's off 145 but it wouldn't surprise me if he's improved 7lbs since then
 
Desert Orchid said:
To win the Schweppes off 149, MTOY would need to be the best novice we've seen since Golden Cygnet.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. I know which one I think.
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Like I said earlier, it's a stiff task for any novice, but the suggestion that MTOY would need to be the best since Golden Cygnet to be winning it is wrong, DO. It might only need an early-150's performance to take the spoils.
 
Grasshopper said:
Like I said earlier, it's a stiff task for any novice, but the suggestion that MTOY would need to be the best since Golden Cygnet to be winning it is wrong, DO. It might only need an early-150's performance to take the spoils.
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A horse rated in the mid-high 130s would need to put up a 150 performance to have a chance. You don't win big handicaps unless you're a lot better than your OR.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A horse rated in the mid-high 130s would need to put up a 150 performance to have a chance. You don't win big handicaps unless you're a lot better than your OR.
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DO, if you argue that it will take a 150+ performance to win a Betfair Hurdle, then you're basically arguing that a horse rated 149 has less to find to win such a race, than a horse rated "high-130's".

Are you arguing for MTOY or against him. It's genuinely unclear to me. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
DO, if you argue that it will take a 150+ performance to win a Betfair Hurdle, then you're basically arguing that a horse rated 149 has less to find to win such a race, than a horse rated "high-130's".

Are you arguing for MTOY or against him. It's genuinely unclear to me. :cool:
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i'd think its easier for a 149 horse to put a 150 in than a 135 as well..unless Barney Curley trained the 135 one;)

the usual statement i read in these big handicaps is you need to be 10 lb+ ahead of your mark..your rating is actually irrelevant as long as you are actually in the weights
 
In my figures he needs to put a 165 or better to win on OR149, with than leves of form he wins a Supreme 19 out 20 years.
 
At the risk of upsetting some people on here - which is not in the least my intention but I'm conscious that it's either that or I'm patronising - but I get the impression some people don't understand handicapping.

You need to be at least 10lbs better than your official rating to win a normal renewal of a top handicap.

I've never said it takes a 150 performance to win this race. I've said it would take that level of performance from one rated in the mid-high 130s to be in with a chance. If the likes of MTOY, rated 149, runs in the race, he'd need to hit the low-mid 160s to have the same chance.

The handicapper's job is to equalise each runner's chances. It is therefore entirely logical to conclude you need to be better than your rating to win a handicap and the better class the race the further ahead of your rating you need to be (barring certain circumstances). That's why runners with form in the better handicaps come out and win weaker races.

Once again, apologies if this is coming across as patronising.
 
Assuming GMOOH runs off top weight, that puts MTOY on 11.3, which is an unprecedented (AFAIAA) weight for a novice to win this with. The nearest I can find in the past 30 years is Sharpical (11.1), in a year when the top weight ran off 145.


Edit
Agree with DO, whatever wins this is bound to go up by 9lbs or so - automatic.
 
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If it's aimed towards me, DO, you've nothing to apologise about. However, I do think you're perhaps guilty of thinking that there is some handicapping 'Eldorado' that some have reached, and others have not.

It isn't the case.

How one frames/handicaps a races is entirely down to taste. We all assimilate a race using the same bare facts, and we all apply it in a myriad of different ways. Some differences are subtle; others significant; and the ultimate arbiter of whose method was best applied in any given race, is the P&L column.

Your statement perhaps reflects the "They just don't get it!" exasperation we all feel at times, but it does carry the slightest touch of the Holier-than-thou about it. Better that we just agree that we all apply the available measures in different ways, and until someone starts posting from their Monaco-berthed yacht, it's all a no-score-draw.

:cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
but it does carry the slightest touch of the Holier-than-thou about it.
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... which is exactly what I didn't want to do so I would re-extend my apology to anyone else who feels the same.

I do make modest profits year on year, mainly from punting in handicaps, but obviously I punt a lot more losers than winners, as does everyone.
 
Taking my take on JP's a step further I noticed to date Nicky Henderson has 2 horses prominent in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The betting would indicate they have similar chances both being 10/1 shots.

You have to ask yourself if it were Nicky Hederson's who wanted to run a novice in the Betfair Hurdle which would he run? My Tent Or Yours or River Maigue.

River Maigue rated 136 by the BHA would be getting 13lbs of My Tent Or Yours rated 149 by the BHA unless I am missing something.?????? If the latter is capable of winning this he must be a stonewall certainty of the Supreme if those ratings are correct.

I keep wondering if they could be thinking they can win this again with Get me Out Of Here. Despite the commentator saying he was pulled up last time he wasn't. He pulled himself up for some reason like he had hurt himself or pulled a muscle. Ritchie was still riding him when he suddenly jinked right and stopped..

JP could do a lot of harm to the bookies backing him EW at long odds and a lot more if he were to win but not completing at Kempton is a worry.

Then you have It's a Gimme. He is a bit of an unknown but any handicapper with 10st5lbs coming out of Jackdaw with so few runs under his belt has got to be respected. His last run was on heavy ground so it can be ignored and he's already won at the track

As far s I'm concerned MTOY is a Red Herring and has no chance. Get Me Out Of Here if there's no ill effects will be bang there at the finish and It's A Gimme could be a handicap snip despite going up for his 2nd behind Raya Star.

But like always when trying to second guess JP and Co this post should carry a government health waring.
 
Desert Orchid does have a point though, Grass.
Better prize money does attract better horses, and as the most valuable handicap hurdle of the season, this race invariably pulls a plethora of unexposed animals of that ilk. It naturally follows that the winner (and, probably, the next 3 or 4 home) will need to improve considerably on anything shown previously.
MTOY may be that kind of horse,. but it would need a truly exceptional performance - for a novice carrying his projected weight - to do so. GMOOH won it, and Darlan might have, but I doubt either of them would have, carrying a similar impost.
Having said all that, I hope he runs; otherwise the market will be shot to bits, and I might just save on him, anyway.
 
Like I've said twice already, reet - it's a tough ask for a novice at the best of times - least of all one running off a mark of 149.

MTOY probably needs to run to the kind of mark it would take to win a Supreme Novices, to be at the business-end in the BetFair. Self-evidently, it would need to be a very good performance at Newbury, but "truly exceptional" is too strong, in my view. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
DO, if you argue that it will take a 150+ performance to win a Betfair Hurdle, then you're basically arguing that a horse rated 149 has less to find to win such a race, than a horse rated "high-130's".

Are you arguing for MTOY or against him. It's genuinely unclear to me. :cool:
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This sounds wrong to me. Dessie said it would take a 150+ for a horse in the mid-high 130s to win the Befair.

So effectively, you would need around 12lb in hand.

So this doesn't need that MTOY would only need to "find" a few pounds. It means he would have to have at least 12lb in hand, so he would need to be of sufficient quality to be rated in the low-mid 160s to win.
 
Sorry for being thick, but isn't arguing My Tent Or Yours needs to be 12 pound ahead of the handicapper a clever way of saying, 'if he wins the handicapper will raise him about 12 pound'.? We all know he will be raised if he wins, but can we really prove anything regarding his ability to defy the mark before the race?

He does appear high enough in the weights at first glance, certainly compared with GMOOH, and it definately would be more appealing when trying to find a well handicapped one if he was carrying 10 pound less, but I think in the end it will be more about whether he is growing up fast enough, and improving sufficiently enough to win the race, rather than a few pound in the handicap. If he gets beat a length then you could argue different of course.
 
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its interesting how its generally assumed by many here that you need 10+ to win a top handicap..but on the other thread people are then saying it was wrong to lift Sunnhill boy that margin..for winning a "top Handicap"

make yer minds up ;)
 
Marble said:
Sorry for being thick, but isn't arguing My Tent Or Yours needs to be 12 pound ahead of the handicapper a clever way of saying, 'if he wins the handicapper will raise him about 12 pound'.? We all know he will be raised if he wins, but can we really prove anything regarding his ability to defy the mark before the race?

He is high enough in the weights, and would certainly be more appealing trying to find a well handicapped one if he was carrying 10 pound less, but I think in the end it will be more about whether he is growing up fast enough, and improving sufficiently enough to win the race, rather than a few pound in the handicap. If he gets beat a length then you could argue different of course.
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Aye marb, but he'd be an extraordinary novice to go into the Supreme off c160.
That, for me, is what he's up against.
 
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