Betfair Hurdle

Right okay I understand now. An interesting discussion.

But even in the event he wins the race, gets raised about 12 pound, does that catagorically make him a 160+ horse? In theory yes, in practice no.. If he got stuffed in the Supreme as mighty happen after a hard race in the Betfair, he'd probably end up in the mid 150's for the start of next season, so things would even themsevles out would they not? And even then he might put in a couple of average runs and end up where he is now in the handicap?....but have a Betfair Hurdle under his belt by the same token..! Maybe the quicker they go up can mean the quicker they go down in the end?

I just think what is likely to stop him winning will be one of the other 20+ horses in the race...:)
 
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Bar the Bull said:
This sounds wrong to me. Dessie said it would take a 150+ for a horse in the mid-high 130s to win the Befair.

So effectively, you would need around 12lb in hand.

So this doesn't need that MTOY would only need to "find" a few pounds. It means he would have to have at least 12lb in hand, so he would need to be of sufficient quality to be rated in the low-mid 160s to win.
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Dunno, reet. Maybe I misread DO's post, but if he means what you say, then it basically applies across the board, does it not i.e. any horse, no matter its rating, needs to find 12lbs to win a Betfair Hurdle?

I might be missing something. I've not really had the time to absorb the dialogue fully, or commit my own thoughts fully to the wider "handicapping" debate. Might be the weekend before I can get my napper fully around this. :cool:
 
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Surely it can't possibly apply across the boards? Every horse who has a mark is supposed to be able to dead heat with all the others and past results prove they weren't anything like 12lbs well in.

More than a few who have won the race never won another race over hurdles once the handicapper put them up 10 or 12lbs.
 
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I agree with that, I was just pulling Grassy up on his flawed logic.

This logic being that if DO said a 150+ performance for a horse in the mid-high 130s to win the Befair, it would mean that MTOY needs less as he is already rated closer to that mark.
 
Tanlic said:
Surely it can't possibly apply across the boards? Every horse who has a mark is supposed to be able to dead heat with all the others and past results prove they weren't anything like 12lbs well in.

More than a few who have won the race never won another race over hurdles once the handicapper put them up 10 or 12lbs.
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You could say the same about Hennessy, Grand National, even Cambdridgeshire & Ebor winners, none of which alters the fact that they've needed to run to that mark on the day.
 
Grasshopper said:
it basically applies across the board, does it not i.e. any horse, no matter its rating, needs to find 12lbs to win a Betfair Hurdle?
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It might not need to find 12lbs. It might simply be 12lbs better than its rating.

The better class of handicap the further ahead of the handicapper the winner needs to be, all other things being equal.

The handicapper might not put the winner up 12lbs (unless it absolutely hacks up) but 7 or 8 would probably be his opening thoughts. If it's a bunch finish it would probably be closer to 5lbs since the conclusion would be that nothing was particularly well handicapped.

It often happens that a big hike in the ratings for a win in a top handicap means it is a long time before the horse can win again, eg Carruthers. But sometimes the improvement curve is so steep or the horse's true ability has been so well disguised the hike does not stop it following up.

Henderson has such a strong team, anything he runs, especially if Geraghty opts to ride it, has to be taken very seriously regardless of how badly handicapped it might appear on its bare form. The perfect example of this was Oscara Dara the other week.
 
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So I did some analysis of past winners of the race.

Year-------Winner-------Rating in Race-------Hiked by-------Best Form (Diff from Newbury rating)
2012-------Zarkandar-------151-------9-------17
2011-------Recession Proof-------134-------3-------12
2010-------GMOOH-------135-------15-------25
2008-------Wingman-------124-------10-------10
2007-------Heathcote-------126-------7-------7
2005-------Essex-------144-------8-------14
2004-------Geos-------149-------5-------5
2003-------Spirit Leader-------131-------9-------19
2002-------Copeland-------142-------14-------15
2001-------Landing Light-------133-------13-------33
2000-------Geos-------139-------15-------26
1999-------Decoupage-------135-------13-------31
1998-------Sharpical-------132-------13-------17
Average----------------10.3-------17.8

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+

So the average winner of the race was hiked 10.3lb. And he was running in the race at a mark 17.8lb lower than the handicapper would ultimately believe them capable.

Note for Geos's second win, I only looked to the future, not his past form.

What does this prove? Fúck knows.
 
Great post lads.
You all may remember Family Ways, A JP owned Arthur Moore trained handicapper who was placed in 3 or 4 Irish Sweeps/ Ladbrokes hurdles, an Imperial Cup, a County hurdle, (maybe a Schweppes/Betfair) amongst other top handicaps who won just one hurdle race in all that time.
Proves that these races take some winning and to win just one , just once is a job very well done.
 
reet hard said:
You could say the same about Hennessy, Grand National, even Cambdridgeshire & Ebor winners, none of which alters the fact that they've needed to run to that mark on the day.
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I can't have that at all Reet.

If horse "A" is rated 150 for talking sake and is beaten a neck by by Horse "B" rated 140 who was receiving 10lbs then horse "B" has run to a 151 which is very likely the mark he'd get.? I hardly think so

I'd say he's run to 140 + about 4 ounces because if he had to give horse "A" 1lb a week later I reckon he'd get his ass kicked.
 
Horse B has run to 151 if you rate the race through Horse A, and you believe Horse A has run to 140. Other measures you take on the race may bolster that view; or they may not.

It is the ultimate in inexact science....which is a large part of it's appeal.
 
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Tanlic said:
I can't have that at all Reet.

If horse "A" is rated 150 for talking sake and is beaten a neck by by Horse "B" rated 140 who was receiving 10lbs then horse "B" has run to a 151 which is very likely the mark he'd get.? I hardly think so

I'd say he's run to 140 + about 4 ounces because if he had to give horse "A" 1lb a week later I reckon he'd get his ass kicked.
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it doesn't work like that though in big races Tanlic unless half a dozen finish with a length of each other

in your scenario you are talking like its a 1k handicap at Kelso.

if a top race has spaces between the first 6 home then the first and 2nd will go up..they can't leave the 2nd horse on the same mark and rate the field backwards

if they did you would get a horse running 3rd..its best life run probablyin a top race....and actually being dropped a few lbs for the lengths beaten..as i said before..you can't reverse handicap races as it make a nonsense

your scenario

Horse A 150 carries 11.00
Horse B 140 carries 10.04
Horse C 138 carries 10.02

dist = nk..1 length

Horse A stays on 150
Horse B stays on 140
Horse B drops to a 137 in future as it was beaten 1 length
 
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Grasshopper said:
Horse B has run to 151 if you rate the race through Horse A, and you believe Horse A has run to 140. Other measures you take on the race may bolster that view; or they may not.

It is the ultimate in inexact science....which is a large part of it's appeal.
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I understand that but it goes back to what I was saying about the Kim Muir rule of thumb...if something wins the race give him 11lbs and to hell with it.

I don't think any real thought goes into it at all..........some horses he has put up in the past needed an extra 10 or 11lbs on their backs like they needed a hole in the head......In fact he'd have been as well putting a gun to their heads because their winning days ended there and then

You can virtually justify anything after a race like this. A ran below form C ran above form and bingo you get the magic number,

The fact is the system is as weak as p1ss and that's why Timeform exists and are forever disagreeing with them
 
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Timeform is weak as p1ss too, though.

I don't get the Kim Muir angle but it makes perfect sense to make your starting point a recognition that the better class of race the more it takes to win it. Top handicaps are won by horses a long way better than their official mark. Weak handicaps - class 6 say, are won by whatever runs well on the day because they're running in Class 6 because they've been gubbed in Class 5.

The Betfair is right up at the very top of competitiveness.

In terms of ball park figures, I reckon you could allocate something along the following lines in terms of how far in front of ORs the average winner might be.

Class 2 - 12lbs
Class 3 -10lbs
Class 4 - 8 lbs
Class 5 - 7lbs
Class 6 - this is the dross that can't win off their current mark and the form is seldom reliable.

Irish marks are generally lower and it would not be unreasonable to reckon a Class 2 winner is at least 18lbs better than its Irish OR (until they get to the level at which the Irish & UK marks are 'harmonised'.)
 
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I'm probably going to have to get cracking with looking at this race. I thought it was towards the end of Feb for some reason but I see it's a fortnight away this Saturday. I'm going to be in Spain (7th-17th) so will force myself to visit a local hostelry to see the race.

I intend to keep an eye on those with entries in the Champion Hurdle as that tends to be a rough indication of the regard in which the horses are held.
 
the horses entered in the ch are
Baldur success
Cash and go
Claret cloak
Cotton mill
Cause of causes
General Millar
Pearl swan

of the above cotton mill the neptune does through up champion 2 mile hurdlers only need to mention istrabeq and hardy eustace i dont find it a positive for the horse he was stepped up in distance afterwards as if connections think he needs further rather than shorter he did travel well in neptune so a fast run 2 miles should suit

pearl swan runs in a bmper for jumpers tomorrow i dont think he is held in the sam regard as zarakander and his form isnt as strong

the 2 that interest me are from the greatwood cash and go and cause of causes the latter i thought was given a strange ride in the greatwood in hindsight perhaps the ladbroke was the target cash and go was a good 2nd and may have excuses for the ladbroke given his connections strike rate in the betfair and he will have probably geraughty on board he is the one of interest for me at present
 
Marble said:
I'm interested in His Excellency at double figure prices. The horse has only raced for David Pipe since August, before that was with Gordon Elliot in Ireland. Has a clear preference for a left-handed track, and I think his second to Shooters Wood giving weight away at Cheltenham was good, then decent third behind Sanctuare show the horse is in reasonable form, and whilst he's unlikely now to be a world beater over fences there could be a big run in a handicap hurdle in him. I got the impression from watching one of his races there could be a lot of improvement in the horse if they can work it out, been noted as flashing its tail more than once and jumped awkwardly but still finished second two starts ago at Cheltenham. He also won a grade 2 juvenille hurdle at Leopardtown in December 2011, so a horse with ability and if he goes for this off a light weight I wouldn't lay you 33/1 thats for sure.

A brilliant race you're right about that, Tanlic.
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Races tomorrow in the 4:10 handicap hurdle at Chelters, hoping he can show what he can do...
 
Snap Tie is an interesting entry. Unfancied in the betting at present, but has always run well on the big occasion (3rd Supreme Novices, 2nd Christmas Hurdle, respectable 7th in the Champion Hurdle), Briareus was once 6th in the Champion Hurdle and we all know he would have won this race on the bridle a month before if it hadn't been abandoned.

Whether Snap Tie retains the old form I'm referring to may be questionable, but he did win a 25 runner handicap hurdle at Punchestown last season after a 3 year absence, and is so lightly raced that I can't necessarily rule it out that he will run well, even at the ripe old age of eleven. I just want to see whether he gets declared to run at the 5 day declaration stage tomorrow before I have a dabble..
 
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