Betfair Hurdle

The very fact Defi Du Seuil is entered raises the eyebrows and the stage is set.
Cast your mind back to JP's pair Hargam and Movewiththetimes ...Hargam who absolutely hates soft ground was nothing more than a plant to keep the formers weight down

Defi is rated 17 lbs higher than the mare which means she'd get 10 stone and Charli Parcs 10st5lbs

I spoke to a certain young lady who when I asked about the latter she confirmed a couple of months ago the Betfair was the plan

The big question is..is he good enough


Enter the Grassy one :0)
 
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For what its worth my opinion.

The Betfair hurdle

So last Saturday I worked through a handicap hurdle and found 2 horses Our Merlin and Gassin Golf who I believe were both perhaps well handicapped and more like 130 something horses than low 120's. Struggling to split the pair I just played the reverse forecast as I believed the rest looked fairly treated at best and the Favourite looked up against it as a 5yo trying to give nearly 2 stone to the pair and he'd been less than impressive on reappearance. Well that idea went up in smoke as favourite Call me lord not only beat them but did it with the minimum of fuss. Our Merlin and Gassin Golf finished 2nd and 3rd with a bit to spare over the rest of the field which left me cursing my luck as I was left with the feeling that I'd bumped into something a bit special. As one idea goes down in flames another one does arrive from the ashes.

What If my initial workings weren't too far out ? What if the pair I've backed were indeed running to about 130 something ? Its not beyond the realms. Our Merlin fell into the could be anything category before hand after winning lesser events in a bloodless manner. Gassin golf we already know a bit more about and although he's not the most reliable of yardstick he's been rated as high as 141 in the past and on his day ( well supported this day with tack reapplied ) then he's more than capable of running to 130ish. So If I'm right with that opinion then Call me Lord with only half a dozen runs under his belt as a 5yo has conceded near 2 stone to both and beat them as he liked. Its not beyond the realms that the handicapper who has raised him to 152 might be a bit short of the mark. I'd have him high 150's and that's without taking into consideration that at his age he should be progressing naturally anyway.

That said I've taken 14/1 for him about this antepost in the hope that its on the agenda.

More importantly though I've utterly abused the NRNB in the Champion Hurdle Market 40/1. Single and some e/w doubles which I'll fill you in on shortly.

If he wins the Betfair he'll be a 160 rated 5yo on the up going to the Champion. If he fails to win the Betfair then you should by all accounts be getting refunds on the Champion hurdle bets.

With the Champion Hurdle field looking weaker than hospital tea 40/1 NRNB is a complete no brainer fill yer boots.

Before anyone throws any yukky 5yo Champion hurdle stats at me. Don't bother, I'll tell you in advance, they are minging !
 
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Just in the Betfair hurdle market he's 16's with laddies which if you can do there price boosts, boosts to 18/1. It wasn't showing that Ladbrokes had a market on oddschecker which is most annoying as I've had a decent single at 14's. 'kin numpty. Thought I'd flag the price so no-one else makes the same mistake if they fancy a few quid.

I didn't really want much more on for that event as I don't know whether he's an intended runner but couldn't resist an E/w double with Double Shuffle in the Cup at 40's.
 
I know where you are coming from Danny but I put a line through Call me lord as soon as I saw 153? that's 4lb higher than MTOY got and he beat God's Own by 10 lengths prior to the race.
a 10lb rise for beating Our Merlin who last won off 100 is a disgrace.

Robin of Locksley won the seller today beating a 100 rated horse into 3rd by 22 lengths today giving him 6lbs

CML gave his fella 27lbs and a 3 length beating which is much the same but he gets a 153 and Robin will get a 132-135 at most.

It's one thing fancying the horse Danny and he could win the race but using donkeys to justify a rating is not recommended.
 
Our Merlin did last win off 100 but won 15L on the snaff. To suggest that is a realistic reflection of his own ability is ridiculous. There were other horses in the field well behind them its not like it was a 3 horse race. I'd be very surprised if our Merlin doesn't end up mid 130's by the end of the season.

Opinions vary of course.
 
yes they do and I look at it like this

Our Merlin beat Gassin Golf 3 lengths getting 6lbs and the4 rst were beaten by the home turn

Gassin Golf is a consistent loser who has won the grand total of 1 hurdle race in his life and the last time he ran on heavy ground finished stone last.

Giving weight to monkeys is how Arkle ended up on that crazy 212..people should realise taking weight off slow horses does not make them go a lot faster they just go slow longer.
 
The Phillip Hobbs trained Poppy Kay is catching my eye. She's come a long way since she started hurdling, looks as well-handicapped as anything else in the entries. She's entered in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and goes on any ground too, which I tend to think is a sign of a good horse.

I may invest a little anti-post at 20's.
 
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I don't plan to get involved early with this race. I've got a good record in the race but have lost out ante-post too often in recent years. I also think the County is challenging it for importance in the minds of connections regardless of the difference in prize money.

But I'll always want something with the potential to run well in the Champion Hurdle on my side.
 
I've doubled Lalor e/w with William Henry this weekend in the Lanzarote. Fancy a big run from both, the latter to actually win which I've also had a few points on in a single.
 
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Also heard a few things positive about 'Kayf Grace' without looking at any form I couldn't tell you too much myself to be honest.
 
Tanlic said:
yes they do and I look at it like this

Our Merlin beat Gassin Golf 3 lengths getting 6lbs and the4 rst were beaten by the home turn

Gassin Golf is a consistent loser who has won the grand total of 1 hurdle race in his life and the last time he ran on heavy ground finished stone last.

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I can also see where your coming from regards Gassin Golf and although he's not getting any younger he has twice placed in Imperial Cups over course and distance finished 3rd off 131. He was beaten 5 lengths in a Scottish Champion Hurdle off 141. He had a year out through injury and produced very little last year but its not beyond the realms of possibility there were reasons for that. He finished a 12L second to Remiluc trying to concede 15lb's to him and he's rated 139 now. He's then tried a longer trip then had a fall next time and a couple of poor efforts in the spring. The Heavy ground finishing last defeat was first time out with no headgear or tongue tie so if your putting that forward as Heavy ground form its a sample group of 1 and a poor 1 at that. Also CML has beaten him 6 lengths giving him 21lbs but wasn't fully extended to do so in fact he could have beaten him on those terms on the bridle. He was only shaken up after the last to put away Our Merlin so just on that basis the beaten distance is flattering to the second and third.

We can talk collateral form lines until the cows come home but it still makes not absolutely no difference to the bet I'm suggesting. Yes I've had a decent bet on him for the Betfair and at 14's its a fair enough bet. The bet I'm suggesting is the better option is 40/1 for the champion hurdle NRNB.

Would you agree that if he doesn't win the Betfair Hurdle or do something spectacular elsewhere in between now and March then he won't run in the Champion Hurdle - Money back.

If he did win the Betfair Hurdle off 152 what price do you think he'd be for the Champion ? 10's ?

The most likely outcome is a Non runner of course but there is no harm in trying.

I think you might get a pointer in around a weeks time when the Champion Hurdle entries are made. I don't know who makes the decisions on the Munir horses whether its Henderson or Bromley. If it is Bromley I don't think there are many better judges in the game myself and if he decides he's worth an entry then its probably worth taking notice of with regards his chances in the handicap.
 
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Double J said:
I've doubled Lalor e/w with William Henry this weekend in the Lanzarote. Fancy a big run from both, the latter to actually win which I've also had a few points on in a single.
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Well done with William Henry, Double! :)
 
Cheers, helping cure my hangover this afternoon anyway. Had William Henry in a double with Waiting Patiently as well. Couldn't watch the race so will check it when i get home.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I don't plan to get involved early with this race. I've got a good record in the race but have lost out ante-post too often in recent years. I also think the County is challenging it for importance in the minds of connections regardless of the difference in prize money.

But I'll always want something with the potential to run well in the Champion Hurdle on my side.
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From the Champion Hurdle thread:

Desert Orchid said:
The one that caught my eye in that list is Cliffs Of Dover for Nicholls.

Considering he trains the likes of Old Guard, a horse not far off 160, and didn't even enter him for the race, as well as so many other decent hurdlers in the stable, it's eyecatching - to me at any rate! - that he's entered the 145-rated Cliffs Of Dover who has been off for a full year.

Nicholls presumably rates him a 160+ hurdler so I've taken him ante-post for the Betfair Hurdle at prices in the 30s. He might not get there but if he turns up on the day it's unlikely he'll be that kind of price.
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The stable’s Zarkandar won the Betfair off 151 on his 5yo seasonal debut and went up to 163 for following up with a solid run in the Champion Hurdle, eventually going up to 168 for winning the Elite off that mark the following season. If Cliffs Of Dover is anywhere near that ball park the current 33/1 will look like Christmas come ten months early.

But he has to get there.

He might be another John Constable (NR in the Betfair off 139, well beaten off the same mark in the County and eventually came good at the end of last season and is now entered for the Champion off 156) or Blue Bajan (well beaten off 128, went up to 146 for winning the Swinton off a higher mark and eventually was rated - rightly or wrongly - 160).
 
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Tanlic said:
All I am saying is...JENKINS get on :0)
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That's a strange selection Tanlic coming from someone who thought Call me lord had been harshly treated with a 9lb rise for what he did at Sandown.

Jenkins raised 11lb for beating Don Bersy 5L who'd been beaten 21L and 25L lengths in his last two starts over similar trips off similar marks. He's done Hurricane Hollow 10L who was 33L behind Call me lord last time out not that I'm saying that's a realistic reflection but it hardly advertises solid form.

Jenkins completely flat out all the way so don't think he had much left to give.

He was in first time blinkers so not guaranteed that he'd reproduce that improved form next time.

And just to put the icing on the cake he ran down several flights and was jumping right handed and is about to switch onto a left handed track.

Any thoughts ?
 
On first run-through, I'm drawn to Couer Blimey, but not at all drawn to a price of 20/1. Was hoping he'd be overlooked and twice that price.
 
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