Betfair Hurdle

Another 2 that catch my eye for it are Lough Derg Spirit and Misterton. Lough Derg only put up 1lb for finishing second to London Prize who looked to be going alright in the Greatwood until falling. Misteron who was second in the greatwood is steadily progessing. I'm probably drawn to them more as I think this race just suits horses that will run off the front end. I probably won't have much more involvement until closer the day now.

I just noticed that Double Jay has Lalor in a double if I've read that right with William Henry who won the Lanzarote so that would be some bet if he could pull that off and looks to stand a fair chance if Lalor can just make the cut, needs 12 to come out so possible. Fingers crossed you mate that you get a run for your dough.
 
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Danny said:
That's a strange selection Tanlic coming from someone who thought Call me lord had been harshly treated with a 9lb rise for what he did at Sandown.

Jenkins raised 11lb for beating Don Bersy 5L who'd been beaten 21L and 25L lengths in his last two starts over similar trips off similar marks. He's done Hurricane Hollow 10L who was 33L behind Call me lord last time out not that I'm saying that's a realistic reflection but it hardly advertises solid form.

Jenkins completely flat out all the way so don't think he had much left to give.

He was in first time blinkers so not guaranteed that he'd reproduce that improved form next time.

And just to put the icing on the cake he ran down several flights and was jumping right handed and is about to switch onto a left handed track.

Any thoughts ?
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Saturday comes to mind :0)
 
Grasshopper said:
On first run-through, I'm drawn to Couer Blimey, but not at all drawn to a price of 20/1. Was hoping he'd be overlooked and twice that price.
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I was on last time, disappointed with the jumping, I really was. A place chance is the very best I could give him, personally, but I still think others make plenty more appeal.
 
Tanlic said:
Saturday comes to mind :0)
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Don't know if that's in reference to Call Me Lord's appointment in the champion hurdle trial but I very much doubt he goes there or at least I hope not as I've backed Ch'tebllo earlier in the week for that reckoning on a no show from CML.

If he is turning up there then I have seen some layers on the machine with uber Nuts!
 
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Danny said:
I just noticed that Double Jay has Lalor in a double if I've read that right with William Henry who won the Lanzarote so that would be some bet if he could pull that off and looks to stand a fair chance if Lalor can just make the cut, needs 12 to come out so possible. Fingers crossed you mate that you get a run for your dough.
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Ill be honest I didn't realise how much of a good bet it was till the Monday when I fully came round.
Only stuck a speculative each way bet on and I could make near enough a months wages should it come in. (I don't bet big)

At the time Lalors form is nothing spectacular. But when flicking through entries and prices for this race I remember the horse coming a few lengths behind Mr One More. A horse I think highly of and have backed him in competitions on this and AP for Cheltenham.

Lalor also beat Summerville boy who went and franked that form just a couple of weeks ago. Should he get in the race i won't be surprised to see jim go off favourite and run a blinder in this.

My main bet is Kayf Grace who I've already had a few quid on singly, Lalor returns the biggest profit though.

Couldn't quite tell you if it's likely 12 will drop? Looking through I can probably account for about 8.
 
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I can offer you some encouragement, Double J.

Last year Veinard and Eddiemaurice, entries 40 and 41 made the cut off 126.

Lalor is entry 36 off 137.

If I were a betting man (*cough*) I'd bite the hand off anyone offering me evens Lalor's rating makes the cut.
 
Danny said:
Don't know if that's in reference to Call Me Lord's appointment in the champion hurdle trial but I very much doubt he goes there or at least I hope not as I've backed Ch'tebllo earlier in the week for that reckoning on a no show from CML.

If he is turning up there then I have seen some layers on the machine with uber Nuts!
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Nope..Ascot
 
[FONT=&quot]Call Me Lord heading for Wincanton rather than Newbury next month[/FONT]
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My reading of that is that they don't think it well enough handicapped or that they fancy one or more stablemates so much more.
 
My reading of it is Bromley thinks he's got a serious champion hurdle candidate and doesn't want him to have a hard time in his prep...my reading is more likely to be tainted by wishful thinking though haha :ninja:
 
Tanlic said:
Cheers Danny backed him several times so it gives me the opportunity to take my stake out and leave a decent bet to nothing.
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Considering how keen he was all the way that is one hell of a performance well played mate.
 
Thanks Danny..but I have to thank a certain young lady who marked my card. I wouldn't have crossed my mind otherwise.

I also had a couple on him at 2.1 to be in the first 4 and my Aussie bet came up today so I am in clover.

Having a bet on Brain Power at 2.12 to be in the first 2 which seems like a stealing money to me..now we got rid of David Mullin who just steered Bonbon Au Miel home in great style LOL
 
Double J said:
Ill be honest I didn't realise how much of a good bet it was till the Monday when I fully came round.
Only stuck a speculative each way bet on and I could make near enough a months wages should it come in. (I don't bet big)

At the time Lalors form is nothing spectacular. But when flicking through entries and prices for this race I remember the horse coming a few lengths behind Mr One More. A horse I think highly of and have backed him in competitions on this and AP for Cheltenham.

Lalor also beat Summerville boy who went and franked that form just a couple of weeks ago. Should he get in the race i won't be surprised to see jim go off favourite and run a blinder in this.

My main bet is Kayf Grace who I've already had a few quid on singly, Lalor returns the biggest profit though.

Couldn't quite tell you if it's likely 12 will drop? Looking through I can probably account for about 8.
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Double, what price did you take on Lalor, I hope you don't mind me asking?

I've looked at the race entries again. I like Lalor for the same reasons.

I checked oddschecker just now, thinking as Lalor was from a smaller stable, he'd be about a 20/1 chance.

How and when did he go to 10/1? Was Lalor put in at that price or has he been backed into 10's?

Good luck with your double, btw.
 
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Oh and a horse that finished quite some way behind behind Lalor the last day, Martin Keighleys, Spice Girl, is entered in several novice hurdles this week!
 
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Marble said:
Double, what price did you take on Lalor, I hope you don't mind me asking?

I've looked at the race entries again. I like Lalor for the same reasons.

I checked oddschecker just now, thinking as Lalor was from a smaller stable, he'd be about a 20/1 chance.

How and when did he go to 10/1? Was Lalor put in at that price or has he been backed into 10's?

Good luck with your double, btw.
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Thanks..Probably need good luck, looking like 12 need to drop. Didn't even take that into consideration. More a pissed up thing trying to be clever. How Lalor came into the market I really don't know, but got 10/1 and 7/1 On William Henry.

Pays just under 1500 off my £15 e/w. Sure I'll get BOG so not too worried if there is a slight drift. Least I think I do, still learning about different bets and field sizes etc.

As I said, people probably stake a lot more than 1500 just in singles, I unfortunately don't have the means to do such a bet. Hoping if I learn the game enough I will one day be able to do so.

Certainly make one very happy Mrs of mine if this comes in. (Not told her yet)
 
Double J said:
As I said, people probably stake a lot more than 1500 just in singles, I unfortunately don't have the means to do such a bet. Hoping if I learn the game enough I will one day be able to do so.
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Erm don't think there is many staking to those levels on a regular basis bud. Maybe a few of the short odds boys yeah but doubt most regular punters who punt at decent prices can firstly get that much on and secondly have a bank roll that sustains those sort of bets for long losing runs. I watched a thing Hugh Taylor did where he put a 10% strike rate through a random number generator 10 times for a cycle of 500 bets at a time. The longest losing run was 51 bets which is what you could expect if your backing 10/1 shots regular that would still make you a winning punter. So roughly to be on the safe side if you ever hope to be punting £1500 quid a time on 10/1 pokes then make sure you have a bankroll of about 80k first haha.

Money is all relative mate if you can win a months wages by betting £30 then that's a fantastic achievement and nobody is going to look down on that if they do they are an utter dickhead.
 
Danny said:
Erm don't think there is many staking to those levels on a regular basis bud. Maybe a few of the short odds boys yeah but doubt most regular punters who punt at decent prices can firstly get that much on and secondly have a bank roll that sustains those sort of bets for long losing runs. I watched a thing Hugh Taylor did where he put a 10% strike rate through a random number generator 10 times for a cycle of 500 bets at a time. The longest losing run was 51 bets which is what you could expect if your backing 10/1 shots regular that would still make you a winning punter. So roughly to be on the safe side if you ever hope to be punting £1500 quid a time on 10/1 pokes then make sure you have a bankroll of about 80k first haha.

Money is all relative mate if you can win a months wages by betting £30 then that's a fantastic achievement and nobody is going to look down on that if they do they are an utter dickhead.
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Even if I had a bank roll of 80k I wouldn't be staking such bets. This is more of an interest, mainly from my late Grandad who was a bookie for Dunne Bookmakers. Couldn't even tell you if they where a national brand or not, just the local one to us before Betfred took over it.

I only tend to bet on weekend racing as well as my knowledge of the lower class handicap horses is pretty poor. Unfortunately with my career and hours I don't have a lot of time to really find some value.
If I can ever get to a level of yourself or the other knowledgeable posters I'll be more than happy.
 
Double J said:
Sure I'll get BOG so not too worried if there is a slight drift. Least I think I do, still learning about different bets and field sizes etc.
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I suggest you check your account, Double J. I very much doubt you'll have BOG. As far as I know that's only on offer from a few firms for Cheltenham.

If you have the readies, you could always deposit £1320 at Betfair and lay Lalor to about £120 and guarantee a small return regardless of the result (letting the place portion ride) and also if it gets taken out somewhere along the way. I know I would think about it but would almost certainly let it ride unless I ended up fancying something else a lot more.

As I said recently, though, you should have no worries about making the cut. I reckon it's long odds-on to make it.
 
I'm almost halfway through my initial trawl of the weights and already I'm thinking one or other of Hendo and/or JP will win this.

Hendo is picking up all these big Saturday handicap hurdles and you can't help thinking he's holding back one or two he thinks are better-handicapped.

Some are owned by JP but he also has smart types with other trainers and he'll surely have been told which of them are likely types for the race he likes to target.

Having said all that, if I'm right about Cliffs Of Dover I probably don't need to worry :p
 
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