Betfair Hurdle

Actually had a think about this I was looking at what would frame the weights and as I did so I realised how condensed the handicap becomes without Defi. Henderson and Bromley seemed to be concerned that if they ran Call me a Lord under Top weight that he'd be giving lumps of weight away to better handicapped horses. The way I see it is if CML carried top weight everything down to No.33 on the card (remembering a max of 24 runners) would carry 10-12 or above which would mean he'd only be giving away a stone to a handful of runners if that. If they were that concerned about the weight they could always jock up a claimer.

Thought i'd give in a mention as without Defi and CML You could be looking at Campeador topping the weights perhaps ? In which case the majority of the field will carry 11 stone or more I'd have thought so if you were thinking of backing something high up in the weights its probably not going to be that much of a burden.
 
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I had similar thoughts yesterday, Danny.

I wouldn't be surprised if the top five came out but something has to carry top weight!

Anyway, here are my first-trawl figures - I haven't taken 10-0 as bottom weight in expectation of the foregoing so anything eventually running from out of the handicap will have to have its rating adjusted accordingly:

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Owner[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
(171++)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CHARLI PARCS (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-00[/TD]
[TD]J P McManus[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAQUISARD (FR)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]9-03[/TD]
[TD]M K George[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]? e[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]JENKINS (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[TD]Pump & Plant Services Ltd[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]? +p
-pen[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GWAFA (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-09[/TD]
[TD]Saleh Al Homaizi & Imad Al Sagar[/TD]
[TD]Paul Webber [/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NIETZSCHE[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-01[/TD]
[TD]D Gilbert, M Lawrence, A Bruce, G Wills[/TD]
[TD]Brian Ellison [/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PROJECT BLUEBOOK (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]J P McManus[/TD]
[TD]John Quinn [/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MERI DEVIE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[TD]Andrea & Graham Wylie[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VEINARD (FR)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]9-11[/TD]
[TD]T D Howley Jnr/J N O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott IRE[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BIRCH HILL (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]9-03[/TD]
[TD]G Thompson[/TD]
[TD]Sophie Leech [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAMPEADOR (FR)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-06[/TD]
[TD]J P McManus[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott IRE[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MISTER MIYAGI (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-02[/TD]
[TD]Ben Turner & Jay Tabb[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton [/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIVIN BERE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Chris Giles[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]? y[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CHARMING ZEN (FR)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-05[/TD]
[TD]Sullivan Bloodstock Limited[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]136[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WISHFULL DREAMING[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]9-08[/TD]
[TD]Mrs Diana L Whateley[/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy [/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD](172? y)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VERDANA BLUE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-00[/TD]
[TD]Crimbourne Stud[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SILVER STREAK (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-02[/TD]
[TD]L Fell[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams [/TD]
[TD]133[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAN OF PLENTY[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]9-06[/TD]
[TD]G Thompson[/TD]
[TD]Sophie Leech [/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HIGH BRIDGE[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-03[/TD]
[TD]Margaret Ferguson[/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BLEU ET ROUGE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-01[/TD]
[TD]J P McManus[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[167pt][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LOUGH DERG SPIRIT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-07[/TD]
[TD]Grech & Parkin[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]POPPY KAY[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-06[/TD]
[TD]Aiden Murphy & Alan Peterson[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs [/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WILLIAM H BONNEY[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-03[/TD]
[TD]Mr & Mrs R Scott[/TD]
[TD]Alan King [/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MASTER OF IRONY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-02[/TD]
[TD]Highfield Racing 6[/TD]
[TD]John Quinn [/TD]
[TD]133[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NIGHT OF SIN (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-01[/TD]
[TD]Simon Brown & Ron Watts[/TD]
[TD]Nick Williams [/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PINGSHOU (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-03[/TD]
[TD]Ann & Alan Potts Limited[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MOON RACER (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]Prof Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Drew[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe [/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]o d[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KALASHNIKOV (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Paul Murphy[/TD]
[TD]Amy Murphy [/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]REMILUC (FR)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[TD]Gilbert & Gamble[/TD]
[TD]Chris Gordon [/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIESE DES BIEFFES (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-06[/TD]
[TD]Sullivan Bloodstock Limited[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ZALVADOS (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]9-12[/TD]
[TD]D C Mercer[/TD]
[TD]Oliver Greenall [/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEFI DU SEUIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[TD]J P McManus[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]? +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CALL ME LORD (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-07[/TD]
[TD]Simon Munir & Isaac Souede[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ELGIN[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-06[/TD]
[TD]Elite Racing Club[/TD]
[TD]Alan King [/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WILLIAM HENRY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-06[/TD]
[TD]Walters Plant Hire Ltd[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]IRVING[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-04[/TD]
[TD]Axom XLIX[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]o d
(172)
[+][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LAGOSTOVEGAS (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-02[/TD]
[TD]John Donohue[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MISTERTON[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]Wilkin, Orr, Boileau & Sim[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry [/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CHTI BALKO (FR)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]D G Carrington[/TD]
[TD]Donald McCain [/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MONT DES AVALOIRS (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Mrs Johnny de la Hey[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAME ROSE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-09[/TD]
[TD]Carl Hinchy[/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson [/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KARALEE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-09[/TD]
[TD]Susannah Ricci[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KAYF GRACE[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-09[/TD]
[TD]James and Jean Potter[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BEN DUNDEE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[TD]CJones[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott IRE[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[TD]N W Lake[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton [/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LALOR (GER)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-06[/TD]
[TD]D G Staddon[/TD]
[TD]Richard Woollacott [/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KNOCKNANUSS (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-04[/TD]
[TD]Hail Sargent Evans[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore [/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WATERLORD[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-04[/TD]
[TD]Matthew Taylor[/TD]
[TD]Donald McCain [/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LOSTINTRANSLATION (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-03[/TD]
[TD]Taylor & O'Dwyer[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]IRISH ROE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-03[/TD]
[TD]Peter Atkinson[/TD]
[TD]Peter Atkinson [/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MAGIC DANCER[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]9-07[/TD]
[TD]Mark E Smith & The Magic Partnership[/TD]
[TD]Kerry Lee [/TD]
[TD]124[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]COEUR BLIMEY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10-01[/TD]
[TD]Keith Harris & Tom Gardner[/TD]
[TD]Susan Gardner [/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]+? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CLIFFS OF DOVER[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-00[/TD]
[TD]John & Barbara Cotton[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]o ++[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VOIX DU REVE (FR)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-00[/TD]
[TD]Andrea & Graham Wylie[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins IRE[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][167p][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BIDOUREY (FR)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]9-08[/TD]
[TD]Brocade Racing[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe [/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]{174o}[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Anyway, here are my first-trawl figures - I haven't taken 10-0 as bottom weight in expectation of the foregoing so anything eventually running from out of the handicap will have to have its rating adjusted accordingly:[
Click to expand...

Anything running 7Lb out of the handicap, only has to put a claimer up to run off their correct mark!
 
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Depends on which 7lb claimer mate some are like having a 10lb penalty in my view. You always really have to take into account whether the claimer is worth his 7lb imo.
 
One of my father's betting mantras was "a 7lb claimer is a 7lb penalty".

I think it held good 50 years ago but I've long been of the opinion that, while in the majority of cases I see a claimer as a negative, there are certain ones who are worth at least part of their claim. How people arrive at the evaluation of the claimer is entirely subjective.

In a really big race, would I prefer to see a 7lbs claimer on my horse or Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, Nico de Boinville?

It might depend on the race and/or the claimer. Few claimers get the chance in Graded races but in the big handicaps they tend to be in demand if they're good enough.

I think individual punters need to take each case on its merits.
 
I have my eye on Knocknanuss who has never been out of the first two, is improving each race and was barely blowing after winning off top weight l/t/o - I have a gut feeling this horse is already a mid 140's horse and could be well handicapped? However, he may not get in and may not handle a big field handicap. I also see no value in the prices of any of the horses at this stage and can't see my selections price changing much before the day of race.

This horse was purchased by Willie Mullins after winning a PTP in 2015 for £180,000 but ended up with Michael Winters. He won a NHF Race in June 2015 easily beating the likable Peregrine Run and the moved to Moore at the end of 2015. Didn't see a racecourse again until May 2017 and imo hasn't stopped improving since.
 
swedish chef said:
I have my eye on Knocknanuss who has never been out of the first two, is improving each race and was barely blowing after winning off top weight l/t/o - I have a gut feeling this horse is already a mid 140's horse and could be well handicapped? However, he may not get in and may not handle a big field handicap. I also see no value in the prices of any of the horses at this stage and can't see my selections price changing much before the day of race.

This horse was purchased by Willie Mullins after winning a PTP in 2015 for £180,000 but ended up with Michael Winters. He won a NHF Race in June 2015 easily beating the likable Peregrine Run and the moved to Moore at the end of 2015. Didn't see a racecourse again until May 2017 and imo hasn't stopped improving since.
Click to expand...
You're not alone. He's my second preference after Lalor.
 
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FWIW, Frank Berry reported yesterday that Defi Du Seuil's target is the Irish Champion Hurdle, so weights potentially will rise.
 
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All but guarantees Lalor a run. Least I'm getting a run for My money.

Still liking Kayf Grace for this, sticking forecast on it as well.
 
I would think Lalor's participation may be doubtful still, Double J, given he was trained by Richard Woollacott.
 
The one that really beams out at me at this stage is Irish Roe 25/1 with BFSP and Paddy power. Despite going up a stone for her last 3 runs I still have her as well handicapped. I'll post full thoughts if she makes the cut (still needs 6 to come out). She's entered up for the Mares race at Doncaster this weekend where looking at the entries she could well be facing animals who are supposedly rated vastly superior to her in the handicap. I think if lining up there she will run a big race and quite possibly advertise that she still has a fair bit up her sleeve. I'm not saying she'll win at the weekend as she's a full 16lbs wrong officially of market leader Marias benefit on Saturdays terms. Call me lord was my first ante-post hit of the season with not running in this and fairly likely that this could be my second but I can't resist a decent bet at 25's.
 
I'd say you're practically guaranteed to get a run, Danny.........or at least, you will comfortably make the field on numbers.

Mullins has three above yours, and will almost-certainly run a maximum of one, and likewise, Henderson has four above you, and likely will only run two maximum........and that's without looking at anything else.
 
Yeah Elgin supposedly going to Wincanton for the elite as well. That's what I thought that it would actually make the cut but be interesting to see what happens if taking her chance in the mares race on Saturday. I could have it all wrong but if I have her right then 25/1 will looks massive come the day. I had a good first part of the season but since returning after Christmas just been having a bit of a wobble and things starting to not quite go my way so that's tempering confidence atm. This game certainly knows how to keep you humble.
 
I suspect there might not be a cut this year. We might not get a full field.

I'm more than happy to see Cliffs Of Dover still there. I was tempted to go in again with the Nicholls reps down to two and the other one seemingly exposed but the horse doesn't appear to be attracting any attention in the market so i'll continue to lurk for a wee while yet in case there is some doubt about its participation. I imagine very soft ground might be a concern.
 
Danny said:
The one that really beams out at me at this stage is Irish Roe 25/1 with BFSP and Paddy power. Despite going up a stone for her last 3 runs I still have her as well handicapped. I'll post full thoughts if she makes the cut (still needs 6 to come out). She's entered up for the Mares race at Doncaster this weekend where looking at the entries she could well be facing animals who are supposedly rated vastly superior to her in the handicap. I think if lining up there she will run a big race and quite possibly advertise that she still has a fair bit up her sleeve. I'm not saying she'll win at the weekend as she's a full 16lbs wrong officially of market leader Marias benefit on Saturdays terms. Call me lord was my first ante-post hit of the season with not running in this and fairly likely that this could be my second but I can't resist a decent bet at 25's.
Click to expand...

Perfect today please run.
 
Good shout, Danny. Do you think she might be flattered by today's run? Not sure what possessed the fav's jockey to put her so far clear like that so early but she did hold 'your' lass at bay. Maybe she was idling?
 
Maybe but they were a long way clear of the rest a few of who'm would be more highly rated than Irish roe I think. You could look at it the other way that they give marias benefit a soft lead ? I'm not sure I'll have a better look at it when I get chance but first impression is that she'll certainly have a bit in hand officially.
 
Danny said:
My reading of it is Bromley thinks he's got a serious champion hurdle candidate and doesn't want him to have a hard time in his prep...my reading is more likely to be tainted by wishful thinking though haha :ninja:
Click to expand...

Our Merlin did the form no harm today anyway, running off effectively 11 lbs higher than when beaten by CML.

Beaten 2.5 Lengths today and CML (at his ease) beat him 3+ Lengths last day.

Better ground likely to see CML to better effect too. I've had a pop EW at 40/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle
 
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Double Handful said:
Our Merlin did the form no harm today anyway, running off effectively 11 lbs higher than when beaten by CML.

Beaten 2.5 Lengths today and CML (at his ease) beat him 3+ Lengths last day.

Better ground likely to see CML to better effect too. I've had a pop EW at 40/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle
Click to expand...

It was a very unsatisfactory race, though, and Our Merlin was gifted a ten length start and an easy lead. I reckon more than half that field weren't off an inch and I wouldn't trust the form in the coming weeks.
 
Re-CML I'd be caught somewhere between both those views, who knows ?

Re- Irish Roe Des I couldn't really take it in earlier as I was in the middle of doing my brains today strange really as the day has posed some positives from an ante-post perspective. Do I think she's flattered by proximity to Marias benefit or do I actually think Marias Benefit it worthy of 152 rating then probably not. What I would say though is that back in 3rd and 4th you have a 139 rated and 140 rated who are 7L and 8L who've run close enough to each other to suggest that's realistic. Irish Roe has put 7 lengths on them and is rated 134. I think even a conservative estimate of 144 gives her 10lbs in hand and that in itself is justification for her being one of the market leaders come off time in the Betfair providing of course she lines up.
 
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