Betfair Hurdle
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Great stuff Len you're the only person who put the horse up as a bet........Wilson gets half apoint for being the only other person to mention the horse in passing despite the rumours
swedish chef
At the Start
Well done Kalishnikov backers.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
Great stuff Len you're the only person who put the horse up as a bet........Wilson gets half apoint for being the only other person to mention the horse in passing despite the rumours
Cheers, Tanlic. Did I have a penny on him? Did I fvck! I’m not arsed, tbh, but he is in my work’s TTF - I’m the only person to have picked him. That win at Wetherby still sticks in my mind. He’ll be even better on good ground too.
TheBear
At the Start
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None of them sighted. That first year in open company just seems to be a write off for the lot of them every year.
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Thought I'd pass comment seen as this was a blood bath for me in terms of bets and that would fit in with every other years results as this just seems to be a bogey race for me. Irish Roe obviously disappointed badly whether you believe it was down to having a hard race last time, getting lost in a big handicap or the ground conditions she just didn't run her race at all. I'm thinking it was probably the latter of those and of course when we look back on the form it will show ground officially described as soft the same as the soft shown at Doncaster. I 'd have it as not much worse than good to soft at Donny and I think it was apparent to all that it must of been Heavy on the hurdle course on Saturday. When it was becoming more apparent that the ground was going to be Heavy I looked through for Heavy ground form Kalashnikov's second to Summerville boy didn't look good enough form to me but I had really forgot to take into account Len's thoughts that he had provided that there was genuine reasons for the defeat and perhaps I should have taken that into account. A few of the outsiders I put down ran o.k as did the shortlist of those tried in first time tack. Bleu et Rouge 2nd Spirit of the games 3rd Coeur Blimey 4th and Zalvados finished 7th if he hadn't stumbled badly after the last he may well have snatched 5th. Considering they had early morning prices of 14/1, 28/1, 25/1 and 40/1 respectively it wasn't a bad starting point to have them on an easy to compile shortlist. Lough Derg Spirit another who I thought had a decent chance finished 6th bet in fairness the ground probably accounted for his chances too. I did realise that it would probably end up soft on the day but didn't really figure that is was going to be quite as bad as that.
Trying to draw some positives from an assessment but that's fairly hard to do when you reach into your pocket and only feel your leg. With Call me a lord being a fairly large ante-post loser on the race as well I'm left licking my wounds. The irony of it all is that he for one would of relished conditions on Saturday and the excuse of not wanting him to be giving weight all round as a reason for not running is even harder to swallow when Nicky has allowed Jenkins to do exactly that. The only positive I drew from Call me lord not showing up here was that he might have an easier race in the Kingwell and it might serve as a better prep for Champion Hurdle. Given I've looked out my window this morning to see a covering of snow I'm now wondering whether Wincanton will even be on come Saturday which would leave him in no mans land without a prep. If that is the case then I think I've truly, truly dropped a bollock and an expensive one at that.
Had a real rough few weeks since Christmas punting wise and this was probably the worst, nothing I can do about it really just got to get back up, dust myself off and go again. The Call me Lord Champion Hurdle bet I'll leave in the lap of the gods and see what they come up with.
Trying to draw some positives from an assessment but that's fairly hard to do when you reach into your pocket and only feel your leg. With Call me a lord being a fairly large ante-post loser on the race as well I'm left licking my wounds. The irony of it all is that he for one would of relished conditions on Saturday and the excuse of not wanting him to be giving weight all round as a reason for not running is even harder to swallow when Nicky has allowed Jenkins to do exactly that. The only positive I drew from Call me lord not showing up here was that he might have an easier race in the Kingwell and it might serve as a better prep for Champion Hurdle. Given I've looked out my window this morning to see a covering of snow I'm now wondering whether Wincanton will even be on come Saturday which would leave him in no mans land without a prep. If that is the case then I think I've truly, truly dropped a bollock and an expensive one at that.
Had a real rough few weeks since Christmas punting wise and this was probably the worst, nothing I can do about it really just got to get back up, dust myself off and go again. The Call me Lord Champion Hurdle bet I'll leave in the lap of the gods and see what they come up with.
Hope it turns around for you Danny. These are the problems with betting ante post and the reasons you get the big prices. You can either be in a lovely position going into a race or have already done your balls before the white flag is raised.
We can't have it all unfortunately so just need to take the rough with the smooth. I had a shocker on Saturday , typified by Kylemore Lough but I backed two horses yesterday and they both won at decent prices. Still down for the weekend mind but only marginal now.
As for Jenkins, no idea what to make of him but his race was over after a couple of furlongs, you simply can't be that keen on that surface in that deep a race.
The eyecatcher for me was Verdana Blue. If I hadn't seen the race and somebody paused it approaching two out and asked me to predict where she'd finished I'd have never guessed 10th. She's 20/1 NRNB for the County and that interests me in the event Nicky sees sense and decides against sending her for the Champion and goes there rather than the Mares over the longer trip.
We can't have it all unfortunately so just need to take the rough with the smooth. I had a shocker on Saturday , typified by Kylemore Lough but I backed two horses yesterday and they both won at decent prices. Still down for the weekend mind but only marginal now.
As for Jenkins, no idea what to make of him but his race was over after a couple of furlongs, you simply can't be that keen on that surface in that deep a race.
The eyecatcher for me was Verdana Blue. If I hadn't seen the race and somebody paused it approaching two out and asked me to predict where she'd finished I'd have never guessed 10th. She's 20/1 NRNB for the County and that interests me in the event Nicky sees sense and decides against sending her for the Champion and goes there rather than the Mares over the longer trip.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Agree about Verdana Blue Wilson, she was the real eyecatcher on ground she hated. Definitely a 2 miler, she doesn't get home over the intermediate trip, however I did see connections were aiming at the Champion Hurdle.
As Desert Orchid alluded to earlier it's another Saturday that get's spoilt by rain on the day changing the ground, I make it the last 4 Saturday's it's happened.
As Desert Orchid alluded to earlier it's another Saturday that get's spoilt by rain on the day changing the ground, I make it the last 4 Saturday's it's happened.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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VB caught my eye too at one point but so did several others.
I'll look at the race more closely once that hard-copy form comes in but we've had the most valuable handicap hurdle [in Europe?] of the season, populated by runners that connections clearly regard as being well handicapped (since stablemates have contested less valuable races and won) and instead of finishing in the theoretical straight line across the course they've finished in a very long drawn out line right down past the final hurdle of a long run-in.
I reckon only the ground can account for that. I think we have had a finish of horses who acted accordingly in it. Kalashnikov has acted better than Bleu Et Rouge who in turn has acted better than Spiritofthegames et al and handicapping on pure ability has had very little to do with it.
And that annoys the buggery out of me.
You really are better off playing the puggies on days like that.
I'll look at the race more closely once that hard-copy form comes in but we've had the most valuable handicap hurdle [in Europe?] of the season, populated by runners that connections clearly regard as being well handicapped (since stablemates have contested less valuable races and won) and instead of finishing in the theoretical straight line across the course they've finished in a very long drawn out line right down past the final hurdle of a long run-in.
I reckon only the ground can account for that. I think we have had a finish of horses who acted accordingly in it. Kalashnikov has acted better than Bleu Et Rouge who in turn has acted better than Spiritofthegames et al and handicapping on pure ability has had very little to do with it.
And that annoys the buggery out of me.
You really are better off playing the puggies on days like that.
Maxbet
Journeyman
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I think there was a little more to it, than a finish of horse's that acted accordingly DO. It would be very hard to decipher what aspects of each horse was affected, and by what quantifiable measures. At the weights the first and second weren't very far apart.
I think Geraghty could have gotten a little closer too, he seemed to wait as long as possible, certainly until after the last, before letting his horse down.
I wouldn't even try to work out a rating on the race at all....whose to say the front runners didn't go to fast on the ground.
Far to many imponderables.
I think Geraghty could have gotten a little closer too, he seemed to wait as long as possible, certainly until after the last, before letting his horse down.
I wouldn't even try to work out a rating on the race at all....whose to say the front runners didn't go to fast on the ground.
Far to many imponderables.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
And the race won by a horse whose best surface is a lot less taxing than Saturday's. It could just be that Kalashnikov is and will prove to be a very good horse, of course. He's won a very competitive handicap in a mudbath, off 11st 4lb, as a 5-y-o.
I know, I'm hugely biased.
I know, I'm hugely biased.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Yes, Len, of course it could be and almost certainly is.
But would you have backed him if you'd known how taxing it was going to turn out? Even the trainer was expressing concerns before the off.
The horse has handled conditions better than the rest possibly despite preferring better. He might just have the facility that allows him to go through that ground with less inconvenience than others.
It will be interesting to see how the principals emerge from what looked like an attritional race. I hope it doesn't bottom them.
But would you have backed him if you'd known how taxing it was going to turn out? Even the trainer was expressing concerns before the off.
The horse has handled conditions better than the rest possibly despite preferring better. He might just have the facility that allows him to go through that ground with less inconvenience than others.
It will be interesting to see how the principals emerge from what looked like an attritional race. I hope it doesn't bottom them.
Double Handful
At the Start
If it's accurate that Kalashnikov will improve for better ground, it has to make him a player in the Supreme, surely?
The Supreme market is all over the place with really only Getabird (assuming Samcro goes Ballymore) putting up any performance of real note. And even that performance was in a very small field, from the front, in heavy Irish winter ground, against what really?? Mengli Khan not as good as we thought imo and Carter McKay beaten again since, granted up in distance, but by even weaker opposition.
The Supreme market is all over the place with really only Getabird (assuming Samcro goes Ballymore) putting up any performance of real note. And even that performance was in a very small field, from the front, in heavy Irish winter ground, against what really?? Mengli Khan not as good as we thought imo and Carter McKay beaten again since, granted up in distance, but by even weaker opposition.
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I have to say I'd be more than a little concerned about jumping to the conclusion or taking the word of the trainer that Kalashnikov will be a better horse on a better surface.
Where is the evidence of that ?
I haven't read the thing that you've read Len about the losing of a shoe and going slightly wrong in the Tolworth. In the aftermath the trainer as said the ground has beat him. In reality though if the excuse you've put up for him is valid may he have won the Tolworth if not losing a shoe ? If so then he'd have won a Tolworth and a Betfair hurdle on Heavy Ground, a horse that doesn't act on a surface does not do that. Its far superior to anything he' achieved on better ground to date although admittedly he's yet to be tested against better opposition on better ground but I certainly wouldn't be convinced that he'd be a better horse for it. From what I've seen so far he's relished the mud. Even without excuse in the Tolworth a 2nd wouldn't be awful form.
Where is the evidence of that ?
I haven't read the thing that you've read Len about the losing of a shoe and going slightly wrong in the Tolworth. In the aftermath the trainer as said the ground has beat him. In reality though if the excuse you've put up for him is valid may he have won the Tolworth if not losing a shoe ? If so then he'd have won a Tolworth and a Betfair hurdle on Heavy Ground, a horse that doesn't act on a surface does not do that. Its far superior to anything he' achieved on better ground to date although admittedly he's yet to be tested against better opposition on better ground but I certainly wouldn't be convinced that he'd be a better horse for it. From what I've seen so far he's relished the mud. Even without excuse in the Tolworth a 2nd wouldn't be awful form.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Supreme has the look of a haymaker year......Arctic Kinsman or Ebaziyan job. I’ll probably play the outers for small stakes.
Maxbet
Journeyman
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Wins through stamina test, outstaying everything, I'd have thought Ballymore surely?
Those two novice hurdles will depend on where Samcro goes although they keep saying the Ballymore I'm not to sure about that myself I wrote this a week or so ago over at another forum as to reasons why I thought he might go the supreme route but obviously this was before the Betfair was run.
After watching the Irish trials I have more questions than answers. I've said before that I'm pretty useless at translating Irish form and I always see Irish racing as a joke they are in on and we are not. How do you tell what Samcro is ? That race was run at a joke of a pace and has no real bearing how a race will be run at Cheltenham. That said Samcro looks like a beast.
I think sometimes the biggest clue is in what they don't say. Or translating something that they say without thinking.
"I wouldn't be worried about Getabird" the words from Gordon Elliots mouth.
Well I thought Getabird looked like a very solid prospect and won the race that Willie uses for most of his best Supreme Contenders. So that's some statement from Gordon. However, he knows where he's at doesn't he ? His Mengli Kahn ran second to Getabird so in a roundabout way is he saying if Menghli Kahn can get close to Getabird then he's certainly not coming close to Samcro.
With that given and due to some of the rest of the opposition falling apart somewhat does Gordon go for a race if he knows its in the bag.
Betting for the Supreme looks like this without Samcro.
Getabird 5/2 Who he seems to know he has covered
If the cap fits 9/1 Doesn't look anything special
Mengli Kahn 14/1 Gordons and he knows
Claimantfking 20/1 disappointed yesterday
Laurina Mares novice race
Apples Shakira triumph
After that your clutching at straws. So the question being If Gordon (who I think knows this) Convinces O'Leary that he can take this race with one bullet as if in his own mind he knows he's got Getabird covered then it looks a gimme I'm sure Gigginstown have plenty of other bullets they can spray at the Ballymore.
After watching the Irish trials I have more questions than answers. I've said before that I'm pretty useless at translating Irish form and I always see Irish racing as a joke they are in on and we are not. How do you tell what Samcro is ? That race was run at a joke of a pace and has no real bearing how a race will be run at Cheltenham. That said Samcro looks like a beast.
I think sometimes the biggest clue is in what they don't say. Or translating something that they say without thinking.
"I wouldn't be worried about Getabird" the words from Gordon Elliots mouth.
Well I thought Getabird looked like a very solid prospect and won the race that Willie uses for most of his best Supreme Contenders. So that's some statement from Gordon. However, he knows where he's at doesn't he ? His Mengli Kahn ran second to Getabird so in a roundabout way is he saying if Menghli Kahn can get close to Getabird then he's certainly not coming close to Samcro.
With that given and due to some of the rest of the opposition falling apart somewhat does Gordon go for a race if he knows its in the bag.
Betting for the Supreme looks like this without Samcro.
Getabird 5/2 Who he seems to know he has covered
If the cap fits 9/1 Doesn't look anything special
Mengli Kahn 14/1 Gordons and he knows
Claimantfking 20/1 disappointed yesterday
Laurina Mares novice race
Apples Shakira triumph
After that your clutching at straws. So the question being If Gordon (who I think knows this) Convinces O'Leary that he can take this race with one bullet as if in his own mind he knows he's got Getabird covered then it looks a gimme I'm sure Gigginstown have plenty of other bullets they can spray at the Ballymore.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
Hi Danny - please see this: https://www.instagram.com/p/BdpgenNHkMM/
Only on Amy Murphy's twitter account, so probably ignored by the racing press. Obviously I follow the horse, so I looked out for the news.
Anything AM says about Kalashnikov would have been ignored before Saturday because he was 33/1 for the Supreme. Do we now doubt the word of those most closely associated with K, given that they know him best? He's a machine, I tell you!
archie
Senior Jockey
Gordon isn't worried about Getabird because Samcro goes to the Ballymore (wins by 5l) and Getabird goes Supreme (wins by 5l). It's a 4/1 nrnb bog double.
I know we've got to fill in the next 4 weeks somehow but overthinking this just leads down a cul de sac.
I know we've got to fill in the next 4 weeks somehow but overthinking this just leads down a cul de sac.
I've also like Kalashnikov since his bumpers. The problem I have is that he's had a tough race on testing ground as an inexperienced horse. Not ideal for a tilt at the Supreme even if he does get his favoured ground. That said his current price is fair.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
I'd love to see Samcro V Getabird in the Supreme. Owned by the O'Leary's i think this may well happen.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
I like him a lot, Maruco, and everything you hear from connections is that he's a tough bugger. MTOY won the Betfair in similar conditions as a novice.