Black Caviar

I wasn't aware of her origins until I read her essay in this year's Racehorses. I fell for Desert Sun when he won a maiden at Donny as a 2yo and followed him over a cliff for the next two years. He was my biggest ever bet at the time for the following year's 2000 Guineas (a race I listened to on a battered old transistor radio at half-time under the Stretford End). The only time I didn't back him was the only time he won a race. Pleased he made his mark at stud (sired Sunline) and he was a fantastic looking animal. Something he passed on to his grand daughter.
 
I remember he did take the eye and has proved better at stud, as the sire of three-time Australian horse of the year Sunline, than he ever did on the racecourse (which isn’t saying a lot). Useless in the Guineas and failed to win at Group level despite his good looks (...bit like me in that respect) :(
 
Is Black Caviar a lay at 4/6.The race is over a month away,she has to travel from the other sideof the world and we don't know what the ground will be like.
 
They all get beat if they turn out enough. We'll probably only have an idea of how good she is when that happens.
 
LUKE said:
Is Black Caviar a lay at 4/6.The race is over a month away,she has to travel from the other sideof the world and we don't know what the ground will be like.
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If she turns up its a write off IMO. Nothing will get near her.
 
After watching the Duke of York, BC could be getting on the plane for Ascot at about the moment these jump from the gate in the Diamond Jubillee and still beat them. Anybody laying BC is praying she does not show up. She'll slaughter these mutts.
 
I fear it is too late already. They'd need to have started to beat her.

She must win by half the track if she's anywhere near as good as everyone says?

Our sprinters are such an average bunch that they can't even decide who is the best amongst themselves. Mayson and Tiddliwinks have met twice this season. First time Mayson was 1st and Tiddliwinks last. This time Mayson was last and Tiddliwinks 1st. That sums up our sprinters pretty neatly I think.
 
Zenyatta said:
I fear it is too late already. They'd need to have started to beat her.

She must win by half the track if she's anywhere near as good as everyone says?

Our sprinters are such an average bunch that they can't even decide who is the best amongst themselves. Mayson and Tiddliwinks have met twice this season. First time Mayson was 1st and Tiddliwinks last. This time Mayson was last and Tiddliwinks 1st. That sums up our sprinters pretty neatly I think.
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Doesn't that suggest, not that our sprinters are average, but that our sprint races are hugely unreliable as betting mediums? The sheers randomness of UK sprints may be what beats Black Caviar.
 
rorydelargy said:
Doesn't that suggest, not that our sprinters are average, but that our sprint races are hugely unreliable as betting mediums? The sheers randomness of UK sprints may be what beats Black Caviar.
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There is nothing random about BC. The sheer randomness of UK sprints is due to the overall mediocrity of the horses running. Pretty sure if Frankel was sprinting we would not be talking about any sort of randomness. If she turns up BC will set the record straight in about a month.
 
rorydelargy said:
Doesn't that suggest, not that our sprinters are average, but that our sprint races are hugely unreliable as betting mediums? The sheers randomness of UK sprints may be what beats Black Caviar.
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Wise words they are pretty random.

In addition I was highly sceptical about the so-called Budapest Bullet at Haydock when putting up Sole Power to put that one in its place. The hype that Overdose was a special horse was curiously unfounded though.

I hold Black Cavier in much higher regard than Overdose but she’ll come up against proper sprinters at Ascot (not the dross that many are making out). While I’d give her a good chance I doubt she’ll prove an odds on chance.
 
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I think their unreliability is a product of their mediocrity. No one horse is sufficiently better than the rest to overcome even the slightest problem in running/lack of fitness/slow break etc. I am pretty confident that they aren't all good anyway.

If Black Caviar isn't a proper odds on shot I would be amazed. Their 2nd grade sprinters regularly come over and win at Ascot and by all accounts she is much much better than anything else. Therefore, I can only assume that she will do the job in fine style.
 
Zenyatta said:
I think their unreliability is a product of their mediocrity.
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Any field lining up at Ascot will be better than mediocre, they'll be proper sprinters trained to the bone with local experience. Don't think otherwise. Black Caviar may well prove good enough to win, but it won't be a penalty kick.
 
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SteveM said:
Any field lining up at Ascot will be better than mediocre, they'll be proper sprinters trained to the bone with local experience. Don't think otherwise. Black Caviar may well prove good enough to win, but it won't be a penalty kick.
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Nothing personal SteveM but don't think you have much of a clue as to Australian sprinting. It'll be a penalty kick. Not big on ratings but hers are otherworldly (see Sam Turners latest post on that in the RP) and the times she produces again and again as a whole and sectionals on the bridle simply tower over anything British runners could muster even once. Personally I'm salivating at the thought of Moody holding court after she has demolished this lot. I'll be very downcrest if she is beaten. The Budapest Bullet was a hype machine plain and simple with no weight to his performances. Even then he looked like winning the Abbaye in that ignominious year where they blew the start. BC is in a completely different universe
 
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She's a world beater over sprint trips in Oz and, if she runs in the King's Stand, they won't even catch her dust, but she wouldn't be the first good sprinter from down under not to last home over possibly the stiffest 6f in racing.
I know she's won at 7f, but around a very sharp track in an ordinary time on g/s ground that probably equates to our concrete, and she'll find it more difficult to burn them off up the Ascot slope, particularly if the ground's testing.
Not saying she'll lose, or in way decrying her achievements, but I suspect the Golden Jubilee won't be the procession many anticipate.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Will she destroy them, or will it be a 2-3 length bridle job?
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If she destroys them (which I doubt) she'll be entitled to take on Frankel in the Sussex. As it is she may well win, but you would need to be winged Pegusus to destroy the sort of field she will meet at Ascot.
 
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brendanr said:
Nothing personal SteveM but don't think you have much of a clue as to Australian sprinting. It'll be a penalty kick. Not big on ratings but hers are otherworldly (see Sam Turners latest post on that in the RP) and the times she produces again and again as a whole and sectionals on the bridle simply tower over anything British runners could muster even once. Personally I'm salivating at the thought of Moody holding court after she has demolished this lot. I'll be very downcrest if she is beaten. The Budapest Bullet was a hype machine plain and simple with no weight to his performances. Even then he looked like winning the Abbaye in that ignominious year where they blew the start. BC is in a completely different universe
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With no offence taken, I have more of a clue than you might think. Haven’t I already said that I hold her in much higher regard Overdose? It’s all very well to say now that Overdose “was a hype machine”, but few were saying that before Haydock, when I was also told I didn’t know what I was talking about for putting up Sole Power.

Australian sprint races are what it’s mainly about out there and the general standard is very good. But to suggest an admittedly very good performer is going to come to Ascot and be handed the race for turning up is in my opinion naive in the extreme.
 
I was, and had a good laugh at those Overdose = machine fans.

This horse however is something different Steve and won't be beaten. :)

Luke, I'd keep your money in your pocket - there are much better 4/6 shots to lay every day of the week.
 
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Out of interest who are the non-mediocre sprinters Steve to which you refer?

Hoof It still has the potential to be half decent, Society Rock ran a pleasing race on his return, Bated Breath might improve a bit, Moonlight Cloud could be decent (think I am right in saying she was below par on Champions Day), Nephrite could be alright but looks more likely to run in the Jersey from what I gather.

They are a few who could be half decent but Black Caviar is supposed to be nearly as good as Frankel. That is a different level altogether.
 
Zenyatta said:
Out of interest who are the non-mediocre sprinters Steve to which you refer?
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It's early yet to be sure who is lining up. But the general standard here is much better than you imagine. On the day there will no doubt be a couple of dangers, or more.
 
I just can't see any of the sprinters over here being good enough to giver her a race. I hope I'm wrong but I think she'll win easily.

One things for sure I'll be watching the race on Attheraces with either Simon Holt or Richard Hoiles commentating. I dread to think how overly patriotic Jim McGrath is going to be with Black Caviar. His commentary in the past on these sprint races has been so biased towards the Australian horses.
 
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