Black Caviar

SteveM said:
Yes I am better than to get sucked in on a 1/2 shot at this stage from a different hemisphere.

Black Caviar is capable of very running consistently in the mid to high 120s. This of course is a very good standard and a few pounds clear of the next best, but is short of the second coming. If she’s off a little and one or two others from a handful capable of 120+ improve on their personal best it will be a race. It is absolutely wrong to believe all she has to do is turn up. She would probably need to run to close to her best to win. You’ll find a handful of the younger horses will run well beyond their current marks in this race and I don’t expect BC to be one of those that improves on her best. Worthy favourite, yes. Odds on chance at this stage? have a look at yourself.

I’ve not gone through the likely line up in any great detail yet (there are still up to around 60 of them to consider) but if you press me for alternatives at this stage look at Moonlight Cloud or Bated Breath. Horses like Sepoy and Foxwedge aren’t that far behind her on Australian form and are younger and improving. Society Rock, Krypton Factor. These set a good standard and are all double-digit prices between 14/1 and 20/1. There are more exotic choices if you are so inclined. BC has to give 4lb to the 3yo colts and 7lb to the 3yo fillies many of which will improve on their current marks. Boomerang Bob is 66/1 and actually ran the fastest single quarter of any of them in the Guineas before getting tired. Fire Lily is 50/1. Black Caviar is 1/2. Worth opposing? You bet she is. I’ll decide nearer the time on my choice.
Click to expand...

This race is not a betting prop for me. It's all about one of the best racehorses of the modern era travelling half way around the world for a few bills to showcase her prodigious talent.
 
Gamla Stan said:
She should be 1/10.
Click to expand...

You can have that all with me all day long. She has somehow been elevated to the status of a Frankel. When in fact whichever horse wins this race it will be run only to the sort of ratings she has been running to.

She's not only not in the same street as Frankel, she's in a different hemisphere and having to run in this one.
 
Man you just dont want to get it. There will be no "whichever horse wins this race" nonesense. The winner is already home the only question that remains for me is whether Moody has had enough of this kind of attitude you are exhibiting to unleash her to full effect one time and shut you Brits up. :) :D
 
Maybe I don't get it then. I've said my bit. I reckon she'll have a race to run if she lines up. I'll narrow the 57-odd down nearer the time for you.;)
 
Cannot wait for her to get her ass over there and rub some more salt into the lovely wounds of some very bitter British, who seem to have this typical attitude of "she is from Australia they don't beat world class performers." Seriously some people need to get over it, BIG TIME.

Why can't people appreciate a true champion, who can run under 10 seconds for a furlong, who is literally one of the greatest racehorses (definitely the best sprinter of the last 50 years) of the modern era who just canters in such an amazing style, like she did last weekend in the Goodwood Handicap under a hold whilst the others she races are in an outstretched gallop.

People seem to have a short memory of what happened in March with Ortensia. The last time they met, Ortensia was 7 lengths behind the world champion, and Black Caviar was still at a hold in a canter. Yet Ortensia came out and won against the creme de la crop in Dubai. Most wise people downunder will tell you asides from a weak Group 1 win in Perth, her best efforts have been at Group 2 to 3 level.

Come down here and I can guarantee most horses at sprint distance would fail, and miserably. Cannonball ANY ONE?!?!?!? Was 0.3 lengths 2nd in Europe in the Group 1 Golden Jubilee. His first start in Australia he was over 9 lengths from the winner, and then 16 lengths to the winner at his next start. The best effort from him was 2nd in a weak Group 3 Handicap event.

My only hope for the champion is she makes it to Europe in one piece, does a hit and run assault and comes back to Australia, finishing with the Group 1 Patinack Farm down the straight 6 during Cup week.
 
SteveM said:
She's not only not in the same street as Frankel, she's in a different hemisphere and having to run in this one.
Click to expand...

She's 6lbs inferior to Frankel on official rankings.

What's going to give her a race Steve? Her closest rival is 6lb behind her (Krypton Factor) and that was on a different surface.
 
I love BC, and have just got very cross at the realisation how much I can't afford to go to ascot to see her (tho will have a mich better view on the telly I'm sure!)

Genuine question tho - the only other amazing sprint mare that springs to mind is Lochsong (who I also adored) how much better is BC than her?

(or how stupid will I now seem if L wasn't a sprinter at all buy I'm pretty sure she was??!!!)
 
Streets ahead Trudi....

SteveM - Black Caviars tote return on her last race = $1

Make of that what you will..... :)
 
I think he will struggle at the weights. Being Aussie he'll presumably have to carry a chip on each shoulder.
 
Grand Armee said:
Why can't people appreciate a true champion, who can run under 10 seconds for a furlong, who is literally one of the greatest racehorses (definitely the best sprinter of the last 50 years) of the modern era who just canters in such an amazing style, like she did last weekend in the Goodwood Handicap under a hold whilst the others she races are in an outstretched gallop.
Click to expand...

No one’s disputing she’s not a champion simply that at 1/2 a month before the race she’s opposable.

But she’s not the best in the past 50 years. Even if we go back to 1970 there are a dozen or so rated as good or better.

This list isn’t an exhaustive list but would include: Dayjur, Moorestyle, Habibti, Thatch, Stravinsky, Balidar, Never So Bold, Sanford Lad, Huntercombe, Marwell, Lake Coniston, Lochnager, Sharpo. You have to go down the list until you find something like Lochsong, Thatching or Cadeaux Genereux to find her level, which is admittedly a fine level to be at.

Jim McGrath made an amusing comment today about Australian trainers starting off with World Champions and working their way up.;)
 
SteveM said:
No one’s disputing she’s not a champion simply that at 1/2 a month before the race she’s opposable.

But she’s not the best in the past 50 years. Even if we go back to 1970 there are a dozen or so rated as good or better.

This list isn’t an exhaustive list but would include: Dayjur, Moorestyle, Habibti, Thatch, Stravinsky, Balidar, Never So Bold, Sanford Lad, Huntercombe, Marwell, Lake Coniston, Lochnager, Sharpo. You have to go down the list until you find something like Lochsong, Thatching or Cadeaux Genereux to find her level, which is admittedly a fine level to be at.

Jim McGrath made an amusing comment today about Australian trainers starting off with World Champions and working their way up.;)
Click to expand...

thats some list of sprinters..your problem being we don't have owt like them at the moment

its no use opposing horses just because something else is 10/1 if the one you are opposing is near on unbeatable

the only way you see her being beat is if she underperforms..well..if i brought her over here and thought she wasn't a 100% when she had settled then i wouldn't run her..only a fool would..so if she runs it will be at her best..so whats the point in opposing her?..yer might as well just oppose summat at Huntington or Ludlow thats at least got a chance of losing
 
Last edited:
Okay. I think otherwise. Like I say I'll get back when I've sifted through the 57. We have Haydock to come yet and there are plenty improving faster than she is. In fact at six in a different hemisphere I'd be very surprised if she can reproduce her best.

I've had my say for now.;)
 
Bar the Bull said:
Using Timeform ratings, only Dayjur and Moorestyle are better than Black Caviar.
Click to expand...

The RP International site has her on 130 the same as Cirrus. What does TF have her at? All of those on the list are at least 130 on Portway Press standings.
 
Last edited:
135 sounds high to me. The RPRs don't go back that far so am using Portway Press ratings (i.e. Randall and Morris harmonising TF and RPR). What are the pure TF figures for those on my list?
 
Last edited:
I repeat my question....

What's going to give her a race Steve? Hay List is a 129 sprinter at his best and he can't lay a finger on her.

It's mental that she's a bigger price than SYT was for the POW last year.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I repeat my question....

What's going to give her a race Steve? Hay List is a 129 sprinter at his best and he can't lay a finger on her.

It's mental that she's a bigger price than SYT was for the POW last year.
Click to expand...

See my earlier post where I mention several. But as I've said I'll return on this when I've been through the 57-odd entries in detail. You seem to be missing the point that others will be improving at a relatively quicker rate, when she in all likelihood will not reproduce her best.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Timeform rate her 135.

How did you get RPR ratings for the horses above?
Click to expand...

Timeform founded by your namesake Phil Bull has the most complete rating system historically. Abernant the top rated sprinter since ratings began at 142 ish if memory serves.Racing post first published in mid 1980s so a lot of the above do not have RPRs. Official handicappers only began universal ratings in the last 10 to 15 years so heresay and sites such as this are your only man. Blood on the keyboards territory if the ongoing Camelot saga is anything to go by so please type carefully. :)
 
SteveM said:
I’ve not gone through the likely line up in any great detail yet (there are still up to around 60 of them to consider) but if you press me for alternatives at this stage look at Moonlight Cloud or Bated Breath. Horses like Sepoy and Foxwedge aren’t that far behind her on Australian form and are younger and improving. Society Rock, Krypton Factor. These set a good standard and are all double-digit prices between 14/1 and 20/1. There are more exotic choices if you are so inclined. BC has to give 4lb to the 3yo colts and 7lb to the 3yo fillies many of which will improve on their current marks. Boomerang Bob is 66/1 and actually ran the fastest single quarter of any of them in the Guineas before getting tired. Fire Lily is 50/1. Black Caviar is 1/2. Worth opposing? You bet she is. I’ll decide nearer the time on my choice.
Click to expand...

Bated Breath would need to start running now to beat her. If you fancy him then you might as well back Little Bridge and Curren Chan against her (great EW bets given race make up).

Hilarious that Bated Breath is half the price of Curren Chan and Little Bridge, goes to show how lazy and domestic based UK compilers are. They both beat him last year and have proven record of running to the level of our dross sprinters.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Bated Breath would need to start running now to beat her. If you fancy him then you might as well back Little Bridge and Curren Chan against her (great EW bets given race make up).

Hilarious that Bated Breath is half the price of Curren Chan and Little Bridge, goes to show how lazy and domestic based UK compilers are. They both beat him last year and have proven record of running to the level of our dross sprinters.
Click to expand...

Okay we'll see. I disagree with you that she should be a 1/10 shot and reckon there will be something from the other 56 worth taking her on with at available odds when the dynamics of this race are fully considered.
 
Back
Top