Boylesports Hurdle

Absolutely gutted about Macs, as i know the owners will be. Terrible shame, they had some times with him.
 
I'd like to see McCoy reunited with Blythe Knight first, before dismissing his chances completely. My own ratings told me that these two, (their Aintree race was the fastest 2 mile novice hurdle of last season) and to a lesser extent Katchit had the best chances of making into open company from last years crop. They also told me that Ebaziyan and Clopf would be found out for the jog and sprint merchants that they were, (although able to get away with as novices) because they just got lucky with the way key races panned out for them. I was similarly suspicious about Sublimity as he ran a slow race for different reasons and can't help wondering whether if he inherrited a champion rather than winning it on true merit. For the time being though I'm prepared to reserve final judgement on his case, as the excuses were made beforehand, and he deserves another chance. Mind you, only one subsequent Champion winner in the last 17 years failed to finish in the first two on seasonal debut, and that was Flakey Dove in the 25F West Yorkshire hurdle. Today's run was hardly consistent with the profiel of a Champion, and I'm verging towards the initial theory that he might be a bit of a phoney.

How do you rate Afsoun Dessie? if it transpires he's run to form, then Sublimity's only a couple of lengths nearer based on their Champion running, which suggests that he's not placing come March
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 15 2007, 03:53 PM
The overall impression I got (mainly from comments such as "Katchit beaten on merit" and "his exertions are catching up with him I fear") was that Katchit didn't run an encouraging race yet Sublimity did.
Click to expand...
In terms of winning Champion Hurdles I think that is definitely the case. The betting near the off strongly suggested that Sublimity (who of course also carried 4lb more than Katchit) would badly need the run and he clearly emptied out in the closing stages.

Katchit ran perfectly respectably, but he was easily put in his place by Harchibald last time and had every chance but wasn't good enough today. I can't think of any reason why he would win a Champion Hurdle unless at least 3 or 4 of them run below form on the day.
 
Sizing Europe leads Osana in November.

EUROPE TEAM LOOK AHEAD
By Thomas Deane, PA Sport


Henry de Bromhead was unsurprisingly buoyed by Osana's impressive success in the Boylesports.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The County Waterford-based handler saddled Sizing Europe to get the better of David Pipe's youngster in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle last month.

And while a host of Champion Hurdle protagonists battled it out at Prestbury Park on Saturday, de Bromhead saw his five-year-old's prospects boosted while he remained safely in his stable.

Of Sizing Europe, who has an upcoming engagement at Leopardstown, de Bromhead said: "He seems in great form at the moment so hopefully he'll make it to the Festival Hurdle (December 29).

"I'm really pleased with him and it was good to see Osana run so well at Cheltenham on Saturday. There was definitely a smile on my face after I saw that.

"He did give us 6lbs in the Greatwood, but it's still very encouraging and he was impressive there.

"We're chipping away grand with him at the moment but we'll bide our time and take things one step at a time."

While de Bromhead feels this year's hurdling blue riband is beginning to look up for grabs, he believes last season's Champion Hurdle hero Sublimity ran a good race in fourth at the weekend.

"The Champion is starting to look open and nothing really stands out at the moment," he added.

"I thought Sublimity ran very well though. He looked like he'd come on for the run and I'm sure John Carr has just one race on his mind."
 
More than one person mentioned to me that Carberry appeared to be having a look down at Sublimity as he approached the last to check that everything was ok. Wouldn't be too put off by his run although if the race were run tomorrow then I'd rather be a Harchi backer as he looks back to his best.
 
Yes, and someone has mentioned on TRF that the same thing happened in one of Sublimity's races before the ChH, apparently you can see it on the ATR video but I can't work out which race he means. It was suggested that the horse suffers form slight intermittent lameness which accounts for why he is both lightly raced and a bit in and out. On balance I've come down on the side of Sizing Europe for the CH and he's a cracking e/w at 10/1 with Laddies

Someone who is in the syndicate that owns Katchit also mentioned he is going to be rested now and allowed to strengthen til nearer Cheltenham. I wouldn't be at all surprised on the day to see Penzance used to draw the sting from Osana, to Katchit's advantage. Penzance is flat bred, has front-run, and is unlikely to be going for any other race in his own right at the Festival. It's the kind thing Elite would agree to as they have a big members' marquee and they really love to have a runner there esp in the top races, it makes members so happy.
 
I thought that Katchit ran a blinder considering the start they gave Osana . Sublimity didn't look anywhere near fully wound up and was brought last into the paddock

MJ on the other hand looked a picture and was very intelligentand interested in the paddock - his death is an absolute sickener

Straw Bear looked to blow up too . I would not be put off Sublimity for the Ch though but Katchit and Osana now deserve to be seen as serious contenders.
 
Straw Bear's biggest problem is the enormous bursting he suffered at Cheltenham. Not only will the possibility of him bursting be omnipresent for all his runs, the horse may well remember it and prefer to look after himself rather than exerting himself unduly.
 
True SL...but just think fences might just give him something to have a bit more interest in. He was never the most fluent of hurdlers.
 
I agree there - I was looking forward to him going over fences immensely until the Festival, he looks a real chasing type. Although he still has the talent to be a nice type you have to be worried about his bleeding, I know I would be! Although it is true that most horses bleed to some extent, often undetected, that was a horrendous bursting he suffered in March.
 
Yes, yes, yes.....he stayed well enough in the Kingwell, the Fighting Fifth, the novices' hurdle at Liverpool....:P

Can't see any reason why he can't make a nice 2 mile chaser if he doesn't burst on a regular basis.
 
Difficult to know what to make of Sublimity. I wouldn't rule him out of winning a Champion but that really offered very little encouragement. He travelled well enough but was beaten very quickly and a bit too early for my liking. Carr was quite consistent about saying he was likely to be a bit undercooked but had hopes he'd be fit enough.

At the moment I'd make Harchibald a longish priced favourite.
 
Last week I was laughing at Mark Winstanley and his cavalier approach to money. Now normally he is among the more humble in admitting his misfortune, but no mention of Sublimity or that the 4/1 he "burgled" off Corals is a bigger price today. I can cope with that though, afterall if he were to start every column with an apology for the week previous he'd never have enough room to write.

This weeks whine is reserved for Nick Mordin instead (more of a love / hate figure, where's Winmstanley I just tend to pity, and more so for his signature style of writing in rhyming slang).

This is what Mordin wrote;

"I actually made reference to this when writing about the Arc this year. (a theory he's developing called population, and concerns how clusters of horses emerge at the same time in certain regions or countries etc). He continues....."I suggested that the winning run of three year olds in the big French race might well be about to end if the results of the earlier big races of 2007 were a guide. :eek: I noted that the three year olds had not done well in the three other big European middle-distance races in which three-year olds took on their elders: the King George, the Eclipse and the Grosser Preis von Baden. In the past 30 years the stats showed there had been nine seasons in which three-year olds had taken two or more of these contests. In only one of those nine years did an older horse win the Arc. However, in 21 years where older horses won two or more of the big races, they went onto take the Arc 11 times."

Well in the first case the reason behind 3yo's not doing very well in this years King George is quite easily explained. None of them lined up Nick!!! The Preis von Baden involved the 3yo Adlerflug narrowly failing by a neck to win the race, and the Eclipse, as has been well documented might have been a different affair or not? In short you're dealing with fine margins, and the reason for the high number of 3yo entries in the Eclipse was tactical rather than anything else, as they were essentially supplied by the same stable as a part of a wider picture.

What I do find slightly staggering though, is his attempt to re-write history :eek:

Since when did Nick Mordin tell us a 3yo wasn't going to win?

Le Coquerelle
Airmail Special
and Zambesi Sun

were all tipped up vociferously by him at various times in the season
 
I'm surprised you bother to read him any more Warbler - he's lost the plot!

How can anyone understand what the relative merits of horses are when they just watch them on YouTube :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: There's no substitute for going to the track and seeing what they look like, how they behave in the ring, how they go down, and how they run - also in fact how they seem AFTER they have run. Did they enjoy winning? - or did they come into the winners' enc glazed in the eye, head down, done in? Do they want to rqace again? - stats can;t tell you those things, and they are imo paramount.

There is something to be said for speed stats as a tool; but only in conjunction with: the evidence of one's own eyes, info from people like Chris with proper gallops reports, info from people with 'ins' to various yards, knowledge of breeding, etc etc... But this guy can barely remember what a horse looks like norty In such circumstances it's v easy to sit and work out systems from trends - and in the event vanish up one's own orifice.
 
Headstrong - I think it dangerous to write off people's methods because they do not conform to how traditionalist would have you believe it has to be done - namely those things that you list above.

Many successful punters and shrewd judges rarely visit a racetrack.

The vast majority of my bets are placed on horses that I have never seen in the flesh and I pay next to no attention to how they behave either pre or post races. That is not to say that I completely ignore it if a horse is sweating up badly, but the money is usually down by then for both the winning and the losing bets.

I struggle to follow Mordin's chain of thought sometimes, but watching horses on Youtube is probably paying a lot more attention to them than many punters ever will.
 
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