Caspian Cavier Gold Cup 16th December, Chelters

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Marb

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This looks like one of the best possible renewals since this races inception several years ago, and worth a thread of its own.

Waiting Patiently tops the anti-post market at 8-1.

The one I'm considering personally is Foxtail Hill. He's a proper Cheltenham specialist, has already beaten some decent horses including Saphir Du Rheu and Le Prezien. I thought 147 was still a rating he could win off, but I'd welcome any feedback. I'd definitely put a line through the last day, he's better than that.
 
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I think the ground beat him the last day Marb. He'd certainly give you a run for your money but I doubt there would be much value in backing him ante post as compared to backing him on the day as if it came up soft again on the day then I think you'd have done your dough. I haven't had much of a look at the race myself Marble I've included Guitar Pete in a speculative e/w double at 33's for the craic, if he lines up on better ground then he's probably a 12's poke. In all honesty though on better ground even though Foxtail Hill beat Le prezien over 2 mile here I have a suspicion that the latter will turn out to be grade 1 material at this kind of trip and as such would stand a decent chance in this. I'll probably have a good look at this race on Monday so hopefully I can post some more detailed thoughts then.
 
As some of the more....er.....esteemed (!) members of the Forum would doubtless tell you, you need to go back a lot more than 'several' years to find the inception of this race. It certainly pre-dates my involvement in the sport, which started in 1991. Not sure if it was called anything before the 'Massey-Ferguson', but that's how it was referred to by the blokes I first started watching racing with.

I had a look through the entries last night, and - truth be told - I found them just a little underwhelming. I've backed Henderson's Casablanca Mix with Coral (20/1) - principally on the strength of his run against Willoughby Court, and his win at Huntingdon (only upped 3lbs after an impressive outing). A mark of 138 looks fair to me.
 
Grasshopper said:
As some of the more....er.....esteemed (!) members of the Forum would doubtless tell you, you need to go back a lot more than 'several' years to find the inception of this race. It certainly pre-dates my involvement in the sport, which started in 1991. Not sure if it was called anything before the 'Massey-Ferguson', but that's how it was referred to by the blokes I first started watching racing with.
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Yeah, I realised my mistake shortly after posting, I wish I'd had a headmaster like you when I was 13!
Thanks for your feedback, Danny. I'll get back to you.
 
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Danny said:
I think the ground beat him the last day Marb. He'd certainly give you a run for your money but I doubt there would be much value in backing him ante post .
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I don't see how Foxtail Hill can get any bigger than 16's, Danny.
The price can only go one way, imo, and that's shorter, but a lot depends on who participates, who is actually declared, which includes Foxtail Hill as well.
There's no guaranteed winner which is why they go 8's the field.
Re-the ground, I need to investigate further.
 
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Danny said:
I think the ground beat him the last day Marb. .
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I'm not sure about this you know, Danny.
He finished midfield in 8th, was hardly pulled up, and he'd beaten Saphir before on soft. Possibly he had hard race when beating Le Prezien? Nigel Twiston Davies had the winner this day anyway with Splash O Ginge, so as it turned out, he had all bases covered.
I'd definitely give Foxtail another chance, but I await more opinions!
 
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Grasshopper said:
As some of the more....er.....esteemed (!) members of the Forum would doubtless tell you, you need to go back a lot more than 'several' years to find the inception of this race. It certainly pre-dates my involvement in the sport, which started in 1991. Not sure if it was called anything before the 'Massey-Ferguson', but that's how it was referred to by the blokes I first started watching racing with.

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I have to say though although I hate the renaming of races that have been long standing as it just confuses the life out of me and I too referred to this as the "Massey-Ferguson" for a number of years after they dropped that name but I do like the name Caspian Caviar as it seems to simply roll off the tongue. Wasn't this one year called something awful like "The Andy Stewart Spinal Injury fund chase" or something like that after his son ? hurt himself skiing. I realise it was probably for a good cause but it was a name that made me shudder a bit.
 
Marble said:
I'm not sure about this you know, Danny.
He finished midfield in 8th, was hardly pulled up, and he'd beaten Saphir before on soft. Possibly he had hard race when beating Le Prezien? Nigel Twiston Davies had the winner this day anyway with Splash O Ginge, so as it turned out, he had all bases covered.
I'd definitely give Foxtail another chance, but I await more opinions!
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I can see where your coming from Marb and I suppose there might be a difference between soft and soft. I thought it was Heavy ground in the race of a thousand names and I'm fairly sure they changed the description after it to Heavy. He did beat Saphir but he was a stone lower in the handicap so you could be entitled to think perhaps he was well enough handicapped at that point to do so in spite of conditions and not because of them. Perhaps I've been a bit dismissive in merely saying soft ground would kill his chances what I actually meant to say was the better the ground the better chance I believe he has.


Actually just to add to this although I should probably put it in the rant thread my biggest bugbear with this sport is with the accuracy of going descriptions. Its all very well having all the fancy info on breathing ops and I hear people calling for horses racing weights which is great but if in this day and age you can't get an accurate description of the ground they are running on then its pretty much all pointless. Going stick ? 5. something at Newbury Hennessy meet "gd-sft" 5. something at Haydock Betfair meet "Heavy". To the Bha or who ever is in charge you don't put the Chimney on before you build the house. Basics first !
 
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Danny said:
would kill his chances what I actually meant to say was the better the ground the better chance I believe he has.
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Yeah.. I'd go along with this.

Nothing much tickling my fancy this weekend, so I've tried to find the right one for next Saturday.
 
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If you are tempted Euro just hold your bets mate as I think he's entered up for the Sefton at Aintree tomorrow.
 
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Confirmations – Caspian Caviar - Clan Des Obeaux, Vaniteux, Kylemore Lough, O O Seven, Le Prezien, Starchitect, Foxtail Hill, Max Ward, Long House Hall, Romain De Senam, Ballyalton, King's Odyssey, On Tour, Splash Of Ginge, Kilcrea Vale, Deauville Dancer, Guitar Pete.

No Go Conquer. I can see myself backing Kylemore Lough again here, although I thought O O Seven ran well fto.
 
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No Casablanca Mix either. I'm a dab hand at picking NRs in these early-closers.

I thought Fry had said after the BetVictor that he intended going steadier with Kylemore Lough, to try to get to know him a bit better? You might want to hold-off backing him until he's confirmed a definite runner, Euro.
 
I thought I'd fluffed up backing Guitar Pete Antepost as I lazily assumed as he'd made the line up for the Bet Victor he'd make it for this race. When I checked he was 36 on the list haha. I'd also forgot that as it was run on the other course its limited to 17 runners rather than 20. It appears I've got slightly lucky with a mass defection.

I'd agree Euro with Kylemore Lough standing a better chance this time. Harry Fry in the big Saturday handicaps has had Fletchers Flyer (Badger Ales ) Minella Awards (fixed brush) American (Hennessy) and of course Kylemore lough all fancied all went fresh to the race and all disappointed badly( May have all pulled up off the top of my head I can't remember). Fletchers Flyer ran a much better race in the London National on his second outing. Kylemore likley to be 3 times the price than he was in the Bet Victor and holds a better chance in my view although I'd think he'd be thereabouts rather than win.

I haven't had a proper look at the race so I'll post further thoughts when I have but I'd still stand by the opinion that Le prezien on better ground will make up into a Ryan Air horse this year whether or not there is something better handicapped on Saturday I'm not sure yet but he will be difficult to beat here given a better surface.
 
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Foxtail Hill is in....was chatting to Rory Delargy on Facebook about him the other day, apparently (according to Rory), he's handicapped to the hilt... but is a decent enough animal when given too much rope:) I agree on the too-much-rope front, but still think 147 is a fair mark based on the form he's shown.

Last time I looked ground is forecast as good-soft.
 
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I took 16/1 Long House Hall this evening.

There has to be a chance he won't run but if he does turn up I suspect he might be the type punters could latch on to.
 
Danny said:
I have to say though although I hate the renaming of races that have been long standing as it just confuses the life out of me and I too referred to this as the "Massey-Ferguson" for a number of years after they dropped that name but I do like the name Caspian Caviar as it seems to simply roll off the tongue.
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I disagree Danny, but don't fancy having a roe about it.
 
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