Celebration Mile

Galileo said:
I think the style of racing in America and Santa Anita will suit him perfectly. His form falls so far short of Goldikova partly due to the number of chances she has had against top class opposition...he has not had those opportunities. At around 10/1 I think he is good value for the Breeders Cup.
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He's a 123 horse in my book and probably didn't need to be anywhere near that today. Goldikova rates higher and will be getting weight for sex, plus I doubt Delegator can quicken as well as she did last time. I think she's improving too.
 
Goldikova is 4/6 for the Breeders Cup Mile - a top top class racehorse but at the prices she has to be opposed in a race like the mile.

At alot of the Breeders Cup mile races they go no pace and it turns into a sprint. He is ideal for this type of race. Whats more the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman are very likely to run in the Classic leaving very little else in the race.

He is a 123 horse who has not had the correct conditions to show his absolute best...much like Mastercraftsman prior to York.
 
+4.54s over standard, the form is not worth the paper its written on to be honest and everything played into Delegator's hands.
 
Can't have it that Delegator was at any sort of advantage over the the rest of the field because they crawled today. Bar Mac Love, he took longer to settle than anything else. We know he's got a good turn of foot off a decent pace, as he showed at Newmarket and Royal Ascot. He's a very good miler, good enough to win a number of Group 1's in an average year (he's at least as good as Ramonti), he's just rather unfortuante to be foaled the same year as Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. Hard to see him beating Rip Van Winkle at Ascot, but he isa Group 1 horse.
 
Certainly no argument from me that he is Group 1 standard. I think I slightly underestimated him prior to the St James's Palace, but not since. He was head and shoulders better than these today and while I agree he didn't settle well I also believe that the slow time allowed him to show off his finishing burst (which is impressive).
 
Disagree on the latter point. He's only a pound or two off PB imo and would have been close up behind in the Sussex imo.
 
Galileo said:
Goldikova is 4/6 for the Breeders Cup Mile - a top top class racehorse but at the prices she has to be opposed in a race like the mile.

At alot of the Breeders Cup mile races they go no pace and it turns into a sprint. He is ideal for this type of race. Whats more the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman are very likely to run in the Classic leaving very little else in the race.

He is a 123 horse who has not had the correct conditions to show his absolute best...much like Mastercraftsman prior to York.
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Goldikova only needs to run the same way as last time to win out the park. She can front run and dictate things for herself. Last time, on fast ground, she won a decent G1 by six lengths and five. The pace was fast and she cantered the whole way before leaving them for dead. I've gone very high for the performance, putting her on 132 and, as I said, I think she is improving. At 3lbs weight for sex, an opponent would need to be a 135+ horse to get to her. Only Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle are up there and she won't be taking them on. She's fully 6 lengths better than Delegator.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goldikova only needs to run the same way as last time to win out the park. She can front run and dictate things for herself. Last time, on fast ground, she won a decent G1 by six lengths and five. The pace was fast and she cantered the whole way before leaving them for dead. I've gone very high for the performance, putting her on 132 and, as I said, I think she is improving. At 3lbs weight for sex, an opponent would need to be a 135+ horse to get to her. Only Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle are up there and she won't be taking them on. She's fully 6 lengths better than Delegator.
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Without having the maths to back it up like you do, that is how I feel too.
 
desert orchid said:
goldikova only needs to run the same way as last time to win out the park. She can front run and dictate things for herself. Last time, on fast ground, she won a decent g1 by six lengths and five. The pace was fast and she cantered the whole way before leaving them for dead. I've gone very high for the performance, putting her on 132 and, as i said, i think she is improving. At 3lbs weight for sex, an opponent would need to be a 135+ horse to get to her. Only sea the stars and rip van winkle are up there and she won't be taking them on. She's fully 6 lengths better than delegator.
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agree
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goldikova only needs to run the same way as last time to win out the park. She can front run and dictate things for herself. Last time, on fast ground, she won a decent G1 by six lengths and five. The pace was fast and she cantered the whole way before leaving them for dead. I've gone very high for the performance, putting her on 132 and, as I said, I think she is improving. At 3lbs weight for sex, an opponent would need to be a 135+ horse to get to her. Only Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle are up there and she won't be taking them on. She's fully 6 lengths better than Delegator.
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And I am getting 10/1 against a 4/6 shot. I don't think I am arguing that Goldikova's form is much superior at this stage (it is reflected in the prices) - but she has had two seasons to get to it. I think at the odds Delegator is a more than fair price in a race that should bring out the best of him and take out the filly (or for some reason she runs below par, bad draw, no luck in running etc) and there is not much else in the race.
 
I'd agree with Gal, the BC mile is a tough enough race to dominate, especially as long as it's not at belmont, and one key burst often seems decisive. I'd say Delagator has a great chance on top form, one standout run from goldikova won't give me the idea he has less than a good shot at beating her.
 
Don't forget that Goldikova is proven over the course and distance, Delegator might represent each way value against her but nothing more.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Don't forget that Goldikova is proven over the course and distance, Delegator might represent each way value against her but nothing more.
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The course and distance is why I like Delegator so much....I think he will excell for the type of test the Breeders Cup Mile represents. For instance I would comfortably expect him to reverse form with Mastercraftman over the Santa Anita mile.
 
I wasn't that impressed with Delegator at Goodwood, I thought that he would have won with more in hand. He took longer to quicken away from the field than he should have against that level of opposition. I cant see him being fit for Rip van Winkle at Ascot and probably not Goldikova either in the Breeder's Cup.
 
Put Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle or Mastercraftman in the same position one and a half furlongs down (granted they wouldn't have been), and they would have struggled more. I don't think he could have been much more impressive given the way the race was run and the way he was ridden.
 
To be fair a Group 2 that is +4.54 seconds outside standard on a downhill track is going to suit a horse with a turn of foot.

I have no doubt if the race was run at a searching gallop then the stamina in Zacinto would have seen out the turn of foot in Delegator for sure, its an aspect I painfully overlooked and paid the price dearly.
 
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Delegator was impressive off a slow pace but it is a long way from that to see him beating Goldikova and Paco Boy and the much improved since the Guineas RVW
 
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