Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Champion Chase 2020
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Strange as he’s almost certain for the Ryanair. Providing Chacun beats him next time out.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's over a barrel given the price range he goes for. Defi, Altior, Chacun and APT are the only plausible winners and the latter is the only one over 5/1
Double Handful
At the Start
I'm praying that A Plus Tard does indeed go for the Ryanair as I have him at 20/1 for it.
But I must admit I'm starting to get nervous that Henry will fancy a crack at the much more prestigious QMCC!
Almost hope they don't meet at the DRF - that one or the other is pulled due to the ground or something else.
Bet365 have clipped Min into 4/1 Fav for the Ryanair this morning - hopefully that's just in preparation of them going NRNB soon.
Also, Oddschecker indicating that Unibet have gone NRNB on the Ryanair race now. Seems strange that they would on that race but not on any of the championship races.
Might just be an oddschecker error - but if it's real, and you can get on, 6/1 Min NRNB for the Ryanair is a good price imo - especially as cover for A Plus Tard, if you have him at big prices.
I’ve got A Plus Tard at 25s and Min at 8s for the Ryanair. They’ll be my only 2 selections. I’ll wouldn’t have had A Plus Tard myself, but stuck a few quid on out of courtesy of people on here racing him up. Indeed I’m praying connections go here, but I did worry about the Champion Chase after he beat CPS.
365 have now gone NRNB
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Yeah, I'm in the same boat with A Plus Tard. 16s and 20s ap for the Ryanair. I'm a bit concerned he might not stay given it's on the new course. I can't have Min, for me he deffo doesn't properly stay in top company. The John Durkan's he's won doesn't prove **** all and the Melling was a joke race - prefer Duc de Geneivres at the prices.
APT will go for Queen Mother if he beats Chacon at the DRF. I'll likely back him in that race just for a bit of compensation.
APT will go for Queen Mother if he beats Chacon at the DRF. I'll likely back him in that race just for a bit of compensation.
Double Handful
At the Start
Very strong position, Double J.
Min has 2 previous failed attempts in the QMCC, and having now showed multiple good runs and wins in 2m 4f races with the ability 2 stay the trip consistently.
Added to the fact that Ricci has Chacun Pour Soi in the same colours and the stable also have Cilaos Emry for the QMCC.
You'd have to think Min is long odds on to line up in the Ryanair this year.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Min seems to be OK when allowed to dominate in small fields.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Min's wins in 2m4 races does not prove he stays well enough to win over that trip at the Festival. Shattered Love nearly collared him in the JD last season and he was all out to beat Hardline this.
Double Handful
At the Start
We've clearly viewed the Min form differently, Euro. He's 3/3 over 2m 4f races in the past 14 Months - all Grade 1's.
And on different going descriptions and different tracks (Punchestown Undulating and Aintree Flat) to show me he does consistently get the trip.
As a 9 yo now, I think he's matured over time enough that he can stay 2m 4f.
I'd suggest the more relevant stat to opposing him is his Cheltenham form, as he's never won there.
I've come round to the view that I suspect he might just not like that track.
As for Duc de Geneivres, I'd be way quicker to crab that form. He fell into a woeful Arkle last year and I think his 3 runs this season strongly prove that he's barely, if even, a 160 horse. Like think about it, his best run all season (which was a massive step up on his first 2 runs) was a 2L defeat to the 156 rated Bun Doran! That's the same serial loser Bun Doran who just detests getting his head in front!
Min = a solid proven 170 horse over 2m 4F
DDG = a lucky Arkle winner who is at best a 160 horse
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Min is not a proven 170 horse at Cheltenham, that's the crux of it really. DDG is a stab in the dark just in case i need to protect APT
granger
Senior Jockey
Min is a good horse but zero from 3 at hq
I don't doubt that he stays 2m4f but hard to justify him in March
I don't doubt that he stays 2m4f but hard to justify him in March
Double Handful
At the Start
Last year in the QMCC was obviously a very bad run, but too bad to be true - regardless of what track it was at.
Twice before that at Cheltenham he was only ever beaten by a peak Altior.
Altior ran to an OR 175 when he beat Min in 2018 QMCC. I'd suggest that put Min's run at HQ very close to 170.
And all 3 of Min's Cheltenham runs have been on the Old Course -maybe the Ryanair on the New course will suit him better?
I fully appreciate I'm being somewhat pedantic here, but I just don't think it's as cut and dry to say he hates Cheltenham track or is not a 170 horse at Cheltenham.
As stated earlier in the thread, I'm on A Plus Tard at 20/1 - but i absolutely fear Min lining up - and taking 6/1 about him now as cover makes sense to me.
Double Handful
At the Start
DDG at 14/1 doesn't represent value imo (you may already be on at bigger prices?).
I'd much prefer Real Steel at 20/1 in the same colours as a stab in the dark cover bet.
He will prove to be a much better chaser than Duc De Genievres in time, if he's not already (Think they have the same OR at present).
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
In theory he ran to a nice rating but in practice he was weak as **** at the finish. He's not the sort of horse who's gonna hit the line hard over 2m4 on the new course with the likes of Frodon setting a decent pace in front. He's fine as a cover bet for APT but that's it given how weak the race will likely be.
Double Handful
At the Start
Harsh imo. It only looked weak relative to the turbo charged finish from Altior who put 7 Lenghts into Min in the last 1/2 Furlong when powering up the hill.
Min still put 11 Lengths into the 3rd and 16 Lengths into the 4th. His finish was strong compared to them, but only looked weak relative to Altior.
Look at how he finished off the John Durkin. He was briefly headed after 2 out, but the exuberance and stamina he showed to produce that jump at the last and then stay on strongly to win. I'd argue he did hit the line hard that day, which I would even mark up stamina wise, considering it was his first run of the season.
I think the only reason Punters could take a very strong stance against Min is if they've been burnt by him in the past.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
That's a bold statement DJ especially if you look at their course form. Think I know which one I'd have on side in a match bet.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Little of that, but I think he's a little like Kemboy. Bomb proof when he gets a nice easy time in front but that doesn't happen at the Festival hence both horses will be too short in March.
swedish chef
At the Start
Cilaos Emery should be in that list Euro - He beat Ballyoisin 7L, hands and heels in receipt of 3lb. Ballyoisin best A Plus Tard nearly 3L giving that horse 9lb. Cilaos Emery jumps and travels well and will be a danger to all.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Yeah, he'd have made more sense for Pricewise. Unless the horses he put up in the other races (have no idea, presume Gold Cup and CH) are also Mullins and he wanted to vary it a bit
He went for a Mullins horse in the CH (Sharjah), with a saver on Not So Sleepy but Native River in the Gold Cup
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Native River? That's a terrible pick