Where would the others be running? Not an exact science doing counter factuals.
Champion Chase 2020
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Where would the others be running? Not an exact science doing counter factuals.
yeah i was 95% sure this would be the case, just thinking out loud as if he did come here he'd have to be considered
what should be is a long debate with no obvious answer
i think altior will go off fav though assuming there's no dodgy vibes out of 7b or the ground is horrific
I still like Chacun Pour Soi for this. I have a doubt over what Defi has really had to do to win his 2 mile chases so far. and as I've said previously I don't believe he has yet run to 160 over 2 miles. that doesn't mean he can't of course. Chacun also though beat him fair and square at Punchestown. I've heard the excuses and I don't buy them.
Having said all that I want Altior to win. I won't back him though because I don't think he will. At Newbury I have him running within a pound of his Champion Chase run last season and he looked pretty fit with Handerson on a retrieval mission, so I don't imagine he'll be improving again in March.
The problem for him is that both Chacun and Defi are improving horses, and in the case of the former I'm pretty sure he's already improved past Altior's current level of form. Defi also could, but I suspect there's nothing between Altior and Defi right now.
The x-factor in the race is they've all got to jump, and that's where Altior has an advantage with experience on his side. If he wins it will because the others make a mistake, and I reckon they've both got a mistake in them.
So for me it's head Chacun, heart Altior, and Defi in a couple of multiples as insurance and not a lot to lose on the race one way or another. I've also got Dynamite Dollars ew at 33's as a bit of back up. He's entitled to improve past Sceau Royal and I have him as the most likely to pick up the pieces if any of the big three fall short.
Having said all that I want Altior to win. I won't back him though because I don't think he will. At Newbury I have him running within a pound of his Champion Chase run last season and he looked pretty fit with Handerson on a retrieval mission, so I don't imagine he'll be improving again in March.
The problem for him is that both Chacun and Defi are improving horses, and in the case of the former I'm pretty sure he's already improved past Altior's current level of form. Defi also could, but I suspect there's nothing between Altior and Defi right now.
The x-factor in the race is they've all got to jump, and that's where Altior has an advantage with experience on his side. If he wins it will because the others make a mistake, and I reckon they've both got a mistake in them.
So for me it's head Chacun, heart Altior, and Defi in a couple of multiples as insurance and not a lot to lose on the race one way or another. I've also got Dynamite Dollars ew at 33's as a bit of back up. He's entitled to improve past Sceau Royal and I have him as the most likely to pick up the pieces if any of the big three fall short.
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Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Maruco;732502 So for me it's head Chacun said:PN has said since last weekend he might have a look at a handicap for Dynamite Dollars
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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The point with Altior
is that he has won races in which he was in trouble, and has posted very high figures and speefigures many many times
Chacum has posted a good speedfigures last time but not sure a delicate horse running so fast on good ground as a prep is ideal
Delfi, I dont see him improving , is still young but too many battles to think he is improving,
He has not beaten nothing in the calibre Altior has been doing, Lostintranslation is overrated and Un Des Sceaux is not the horse he was and less over the minimum distance in slowly run races
Altior is the percentage call by a long way
is that he has won races in which he was in trouble, and has posted very high figures and speefigures many many times
Chacum has posted a good speedfigures last time but not sure a delicate horse running so fast on good ground as a prep is ideal
Delfi, I dont see him improving , is still young but too many battles to think he is improving,
He has not beaten nothing in the calibre Altior has been doing, Lostintranslation is overrated and Un Des Sceaux is not the horse he was and less over the minimum distance in slowly run races
Altior is the percentage call by a long way
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Like who? Min. Min, the horse who sees the Cheltenham hill and hits a brick wall.
Defi improved from the Shloer to the Tingle Creek and again at Ascot imo where he was eased considerably once he’d put the race to bed so every reason to believe there’s more to come
May well not be enough to beat Altior but I reckon the latter will have to improve on his last two CC wins
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May well not be enough to beat Altior but I reckon the latter will have to improve on his last two CC wins
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Gaz's Way De Solzen
Conditional
I think it is clear to see how much Defi Du Seuil has improved this season. Chacun Pour Soi did a number on him at Punchestown in April but they both look like different horses in their seasons to date, for differing reasons.
It will be a very close race but I think it will be Defi Du Seuil beating Altior, not by much, with Chacun Pour Soi in 3rd.
It will be a very close race but I think it will be Defi Du Seuil beating Altior, not by much, with Chacun Pour Soi in 3rd.
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