Champion Hurdle 2015

i don't see them running that slow Warb..that burst between 5+6 would have taken sting out

the last section from 2 out is only a length slower than par??

to see slow from 2 out..i'd be looking at 2013
 
Compare them against the novices on the clock over the sections

2011 was a muc fairer comparison and to be honest, Champion hurdlers flat out, shouldn't be getting turned over by novices if they were really that good - something strange happened. What?

With the benefit of hindsight, we might conclude now that the novices were exceptional and the champion hurdlers ordinary?
 
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EC1 said:
i don't see them running that slow Warb..that burst between 5+6 would have taken sting out
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It shouldn't have done so to the extent that it did. Champion hurdlers should be able to absorb a short injection of pace. These are apex animals after all. They only arrive at the 6th flight at the same split as they do in the Supreme. It's not as if they've gone batshit crazy or anything
 
As with the Mo Farah analogy, horses race against other horses, not the clock.
PC took it up a fair way out, then had a protracted battle with Oscar Whisky (another who needed further). He'd little left to give when Hurricane Fly came at him, who then did what he had to, to win - much as he did 2 years later.
The Yanks went to 120yd sectionals to pick up the nuances of pace they missed over the full furlong: the notion that it can be fully understood over much larger sections (differing in length, and with obstacles and undulations thrown in for good measure) just doesn't cut it, imo.
 
Warbler said:
I think 2011 is the more interesting one because there's so few hiding places for the Hurricanes apologists (if any).
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Your ongoing use of the phrase "Hurricane Fly apologists" only serves to make you look like even more of a tit than normal.
 
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Apologies, Warbler....on reflection, that was a bit harsh......though I'm sure you can understand why I bit.

PS. Even a blind-man can see that HF has nothing whatsoever to apologise for, and by extension, neither do his supporters. You can quibble about make-believe time/pace theories as much as you want, but where will it lead you? Knock 4, 5....maybe even 6lbs off the Master Rating you hold for him?

Fair enough. Even if parsimonious clock-watchers want to drag him down, they can't do it by very-much. Whichever way you massage your numbers, it still puts him in the "Top-class category" any way you look at it. The when you add his consistency, his jumping fluency, his gameness and his longevity (despite multiple setbacks as a 5/6yo), then - even if you want to crab his Rating - you and the rest of the naysayers have to concede that the overall package was one which should be considered exceptional.

On reflection, it probably wasn't harsh enough.

You and the rest of the doubters can all go and fu*ck yourselves with a cold stone. :D

PPS. Just kidding about the cold stone bit......sort of.
 
wtf are you on about..no one has crabbed HF..Warbler is just winding you up and you have bit

so don't use Warbler baiting you to rubbish something that is NOT pulling HF down..there are no make believe times..they are the pace scenarios based on the times at each hurdle...they don't run HF down at all..they don't mention ratings....the only person running HF down is Warbler ..not based on the pace figures...i doubt he has even looked at them as he has his own view...that view is nothing to do with the pace figures posted

i'm sorry to say this..but when you come out with complete bollox like above..it makes you look like a bit of dummy...which you aren't

stop biting at his baiting..and stop knocking figures that just tell you where the pace is in a race..thats all they are..they don't run HF down at all..they can't..THEY ARE NOT ABILITY RATINGS

now stop being daft
 
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EC1, I refer you to Warbler's use of the term "apologist". The inference is clear, so have another think about whether HF is being crabbed or not.

I credited Warbler with being more than a common troll, but maybe you're right, and this should just be allowed to descend into a thread for yanking people's chains, rather than an assessment of the race - though I have to say, you advocacy of the "wind-up" approach to thread-development, is somewhat surprising.

Let's see how it goes.

PS. If you can find ANYWHERE on the thread where I've "knocked" the pace-figures, I'll give you a million quid. I may have queried or disagreed with the conclusions you draw from the figures, but I have never once questioned the numbers, because to do so would make me an idiot.
 
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I'll just put an argument to Warbler..that HF fans should spot straight away about the 2013 running

Warbler.and me thought HF needed a speedy race ..we didn't think he would relish a test..i admitted after the race i was wrong.

Look at where he goes even pace..at the 6th..not forgetting they went too fast early..IF he hadn't then got after HF and tried to close the gap between 6-7 hurdles..just gone even pace there too..he would have won by 10 lengths..because those in front..walked from 2 out. As it was HF outstayed them..but with that little extra saved between 6 & 7..would have won very easily. It can also be argued he could have sat further off earlier..and won even easier than that.

this is what you should be challenging Warbler about..the figures support HF being able to outstay..stayers...which he did anyway..but he could won even easier.

My theory about that race and the Supreme is that when they raced in the supreme the ground appeared to be better than it actually was to the jockeys..still some frost below the surface..so when they went out for the CH they went faster than was conducive to the ground then. To back this up..watch how slow jockeys ride early when they know the ground is bad...they ride noticebly slower. Its not to that extreme but that ground was softer in the CH than the supreme due to teh frost coming out. The early pace was too strong...and the finish from two out was extremely slow due to them going way too fast early..I think Ruby thought they wouldn't come back..hence he went after them between 6-7...when in fact..the ground/pace had emptied them and he could have sat at same pace there and absolutely blitzed them after 2 out

thats not a criticism of Ruby..its a result of deterorating ground and jocks riding as though it was better ground.

so the figures actually support HF being even more superior than the winning distance in 2013..when you buy lengths at the wrong time..it costs you late..he basically didn't need the buy between 6-7..but he didn't realise how sapping the ground was..so made his best judgement call..based on how he saw the race panning out..but was tricked by the ground.

this is the argument you should be using...forget 2011..2013 was when HF confounded such as Warbler and me...The figures are helping you and complimenting HF.
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC1, I refer you to Warbler's use of the term "apologist". The inference is clear, so have another think about whether HF is being crabbed or not.

I credited Warbler with being more than a common troll, but maybe you're right, and this should just be allowed to descend into a thread for yanking people's chains, rather than an assessment of the race - though I have to say, you advocacy of the "wind-up" approach to thread-development, is somewhat surprising.

Let's see how it goes.

PS. If you can find ANYWHERE on the thread where I've "knocked" the pace-figures, I'll give you a million quid. I may have queried or disagreed with the conclusions you draw from the figures, but I have never once questioned the numbers, because to do so would make me an idiot.
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read above post Grass

when i get a horse wrong..i admit it..i don't think many people are capable of doing that

and..some people like baiting:)
 
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EC.....I started off by saying I wasn't grtting dragged back into the HF vortex....and I'm sticking to that. Everything that could be said has already been said at some stage over the last 5-6 years, and there is nothing new to analyse or add.

I have no desire to challenge anyone on the minutaie of the numbers, because all form can ultimately be argued either way, and I accept the fact that others don't rate HF as highly as I do. And whilst I'm generally happy for the horse's record to do the talking, I will intervene if I think he is being misrepresented......much as I did about a thousand posts back with ole Foghorn Leghorn! :D

My wider swipe (which was meant to me humerous rather than malicious) was directed at 'naysayers'. Given your correctional-treatment was completed in 2011, this obviously didn't include you anyway. :)
 
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i'd read the post above..no one is dissing HF..apart from Warbler..for whatever reason i don't care...the pace figures enhance him for 2013..completely the opposite of what you think

thats it for me on this now...Len asked for the figures..he got them

lifes too short
 
Thank you, all, for moving this debate on - all fascinating stuff. And thanks for the figures, EC.

Now then, how did the great horse get beat last year? A year older, not as speedy, other horses had a greater preference for the ground? Shall we just leave it at that?
 
jury is still out Len would think..i'd like to see him go there with a good chance..and be there at the last..it keeps the past form going a bit...he is still one of the best horses at a hurdle i've ever seen..him and Make A Stand ..just superb at the hurdle..they hardly break stride..Make A Stand is my favourite hurdler since the 70's..superb to watch
 
Yes, he flew at them on lightning fast ground in 1997. Never to be repeated, sadly. I loved watching Sea Pigeon on the bridle coming to the last.
 
Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle chance may really be over by the time they cross the line in the Istabraq Hurdle. Whilst the Morgiana was great from a health-of-the-soul perspective, I'd be surprised if Jezki wasn't turned-out much fitter next time - though the counter-balance is that conditions (small-field, soft ground) will likely play in HF's favour. I think it would need to be verging on unraceable at Cheltenham, if he was to have any sort of realistic chance in the next Champion Hurdle.

As far as I'm concerned, anything he does now, is a bonus to what he's already achieved, and I will view it in that context.

EC1, I realise it was only Warbler that was covertly having a pop....that's why my post was directed at him....the rest was just typical waffle on my part.
 
i understand Grass..no probs..yes even if he places it would be something...but what will happen if he wins?..the roof will come off

Aye Len..i didn't include the 70's ones..so many legends in one decade..how i miss those warriors..and they weren't shy racing them against each other..that was what made it so great

hard to pick a favourite from the..Sea Pigeon was one..i loved watching him...Night Nurse..never stopped running..

I actually managed to back a few winners of it then..i backed Sea Pigeon with Francome on...never backed Monksfield..in the 80's i remember backing Gaye Brief who was decent..but not in the same barcket as those glory years
 
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Grasshopper said:
Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle chance may really be over by the time they cross the line in the Istabraq Hurdle. Whilst the Morgiana was great from a health-of-the-soul perspective, I'd be surprised if Jezki wasn't turned-out much fitter next time - though the counter-balance is that conditions (small-field, soft ground) will likely play in HF's favour. I think it would need to be verging on unraceable at Cheltenham, if he was to have any sort of realistic chance in the next Champion Hurdle.

As far as I'm concerned, anything he does now, is a bonus to what he's already achieved, and I will view it in that context.
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agreed. if we get soft/heavy ground at leopardstown he'll rightfully go off fave. he seems to perform better there than anywhere else.
 
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The only reason the ground deteriorated in 2011 was to make the figures fit for a highly nebulous (nay, totally barmy) theory.
 
i can only put the sectional figures up..i didn't make the them up..check them out..they are the times passed at each hurdle...if you can turn the 2013 into a slow run race..then lets see some work from you..rather than throw away lines with a total worth of zilch

i find the most dismissive people..also the most lazy...prove me wrong..put some work in for once..our cat can put up throwaway comments

add a bit of value for once rather just plain old belittling

are you capable of that?

you have got away deriding people..well mainly anything i put up...lets see what you are actually worth for once

i'll wager another derisory comment...you very good at it..but then again..no effort is required

i think you are lazy in your views..go on ..prove me wrong

you are one of those who makes your mind up about a horse..you also thought HF needed a speed test..you aren't able to admit you are wrong..a big failing imo

don't reply unless you can back up your argument..i've heard enough rubbish from you on this very subject..always put in the same rude way

so lets see what you made of..for once
 
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when you have compiled your theory

i'll ask you to explain this..which backs up my theory of fast pace and slower ground..or one or the other..or a combination of both

Champagne Fever ran pretty evenly throughout..was ridden to perfection..everybody seems to agree with that view

his time from the last hurdle to the line was 13.4 seconds

HF time from last to line was 15.9 seconds

just 2.5 seconds different.:blink:....over that short a distance of ground...and yet you say they went slow early in the CH and the ground was the same

i don't think so..but you do

what on earth could have caused a CH field to slow so much?..i wonder what it is
 
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If you want a true reflection of Hurricane Fly's ability it would be better to consult a fishwife Len. :cool:
 
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EC
Despite your assertions and aspersions, I've covered this ground plenty enough in the past, and given full and logical reasoning why the 'pace collapse' rationale is seriously flawed, and without need to invent spurious circumstances to justify that view. Go back and check if you wish - others must be totally bored with subject.
Suffice to say that the 2 horses your theory has as outstayed have since won over a deal further, while the one whose stamina supposedly won the day continues to mop up steadily run 2 milers.
Stick the personal junk where the monkeys stows his nuts, eh.
 
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reet hard said:
EC
Despite your assertions and aspersions, I've covered this ground plenty enough in the past, and given full and logical reasoning why the 'pace collapse' rationale is seriously flawed, and without need to invent spurious circumstances to justify that view. Go back and check if you wish - others must be totally bored with subject.
Suffice to say that the 2 horses your theory has as outstayed have since won over a deal further, while the one whose stamina supposedly won the day continues to mop up steadily run 2 milers.
Stick the personal junk where the monkeys stows his nuts, eh.
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poor

i tell you what..i'm not interested in it..and i'm definitely not interested in your view..mainly because..you haven't got one bar trying to be a smarty ..just wasting my time.

no more now on this from me
 
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