Champion Hurdle 2015

DO makes a very good point.

I would suggest many a Champion Hurdle winner would have won a similar race in a similar style during prep races in previous seasons. And Hurricane Fly is the perfect example of a horse you could easily rate at 150 many times if you didn't allow for the context of the race.

Visually TNO did something at the end of race that the majority said he couldn't do, and that was sprint away from his field. I've watched the race again and he scooted away from them when the button was pressed. He wasn't stopping at the line either and Hatch had to pull him up. Any other view of this is just plain wrong in my opinion.
 
clivex said:
Ec. You have made some bold and damning statemenrs about tno so posters will take you up on that

I risk repeating myself but a horse that finished two lengths off the winner after that passage is deemed to have no chance is one of the strangest things I have seen in this forum. Its illogical.
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I haven't made any damning statements..no more than anyone who says..i don't think that will win X race...thats what we do on here..we say whether or not we think horses will win certain races

well it was nearly 3 lengths he got beat

but..and DO has already mentioned a horse..Our Conor...imo TNO would have been beaten further than 2.75 lengths had OC stood up..as i think OC was a far better horse than Jezki and i do think that the race was robbed of something really special that day..another reason I think the race lacked was because i do not see MTOY as a horse that could get so close in a CH with a real star in the finish

but that aside..a horse getting interrupted as TNO did..in running ..isn't always as disadvantaged as much as people think..they get a breather at the point of interference..whereas yes the others take some lengths off that horse during the interference but the one suffering gains with a lull in his own pace and a chance to catch breath..then he restarts his effort. I also believe that that disturbance could have made TNO be played to his strengths..staying. People keep saying he has a turn of foot..he doesn't ..he's a horse that runs through horses that are tiring..hence he needs a strong pace in a championship race. If he was a speed horse..he would have beaten MTOY at speedy kempton..he didn't because he isn't that type of horse. In basic terms he's a slow horse who needs a fast race..whereas at Kempton he got a speed test and got outpaced by a horse who is a CH 3rd or 4th in a good year in MTOY.

just imo of course
 
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the sprint away is a deception of the eye though Maruco..think about what type of horse he "sprinted" away from as well..Vaniteux is a staying horse..so in reality TNO has slowed down less than Vaniteux..a slow horse who needs further..tricking the eye into it looking like he is quickening..that happens every day in races though..horses do not quicken generally..they just slow down less than those around them. Its an optical illusion.

I hear on RUK and C4 pundits saying..oh well he needs a true run race to show his turn of foot..when in fact they aren't showing a turn of foot and exactly the opposite is happening in those types of races..its rare to get a horse than can actually quicken off a fast pace..a real star usually..a speed horse may quicken in a slow run race showing a turn of foot..not a slow horse in a tough run affair who basically just runs at one pace whilst others burn out

remember Kelly Holmes winning that 800..or was it mile?..they went off hell for leather and she just went her own pace..at end of race it looked like she sprinted away from them..she didn't..they just slowed very quickly whilst she just kept going at same speed throughout.....but to the eye..she "quickened"
 
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The best way to view it is by what happens after they cross the line, particularly at up the Cheltenham hill. Tired horses stop to a walk almost immediately they hit the line. Horses with more to give need to be pulled up just as TNO did.

He had much more to give and a rating for the race doesn't allow for what he is able to achieve, only for what he did in the context of the race. Vaniteaux offers little more than an insight to how much more given he was dispatched easily.

Dont forget both Vatour and Josses Hill would have been in the Champion Hurdle mix this season without a switch to fences, and Gerraghty believes Vaniteaux has more potential then Josses Hill over hurdles.

And don't forget most people have been saying TNO is the slow horse that needs further!
 
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Maruco said:
DO makes a very good point.

I would suggest many a Champion Hurdle winner would have won a similar race in a similar style during prep races in previous seasons. And Hurricane Fly is the perfect example of a horse you could easily rate at 150 many times if you didn't allow for the context of the race.

Visually TNO did something at the end of race that the majority said he couldn't do, and that was sprint away from his field. I've watched the race again and he scooted away from them when the button was pressed. He wasn't stopping at the line either and Hatch had to pull him up. Any other view of this is just plain wrong in my opinion.
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He doesnt sprint away... he just doesnt slow down as much as the other horses.
 
EC1 said:
the sprint away is a deception of the eye though Maruco..think about what type of horse he "sprinted" away from as well..Vaniteux is a staying horse..so in reality TNO has slowed down less than Vaniteux..a slow horse who needs further..tricking the eye into it looking like he is quickening..that happens every day in races though..horses do not quicken generally..they just slow down less than those around them. Its an optical illusion.

I hear on RUK and C4 pundits saying..oh well he needs a true run race to show his turn of foot..when in fact they aren't showing a turn of foot and exactly the opposite is happening in those types of races..its rare to get a horse than can actually quicken off a fast pace..a real star usually..a speed horse may quicken in a slow run race showing a turn of foot..not a slow horse in a tough run affair who basically just runs at one pace whilst others burn out

remember Kelly Holmes winning that 800..or was it mile?..they went off hell for leather and she just went her own pace..at end of race it looked like she sprinted away from them..she didn't..they just slowed very quickly whilst she just kept going at same speed throughout.....but to the eye..she "quickened"
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I've held a similar view for a good number of years. I remember saying on here at the time if you have a top VHS recorder - the type that doesn't have 'visual noise' on FF then it was as almost good as sectionals for telling how a race had been run. The FF highlighted what speed horses were going relative to each other, which ones went too soon, etc. It was like sectionals for those that can't read them, eg me.
 
I think what EC1's findings suggest is the TNO's top speed isn't that much faster than other decent types. But would HUrricane Fly's top speed be that much faster?

imo ..yes it would

HF won most of his races without being asked serious questions or having to be hard driven...the only horse i've seen worry HF on a going day is when OC eyeballed him at the last and HF had to really battle..he was then asked..in a similar way that TNO was asked to respond..and he found more..against what was potentially a top notch 2 miler..not against a slow horse..as in in a horse like Vaniteux who we presume..presume wants further

if vanitieux now goes on to show he is a pretty good 2 miler..i'll hold my hands up and say that TNO's beating of him is worth more than it appears

we will have to wait and see....out of interest..does anyone think Vaniteux is a top 2 mile hurdler?
 
I get the point about other horses slowing and a winner slowing the least, but I'd suggest in this case it's worth looking at the race again.

Did all the others stop at the same time, and is it just coincidence that TNO ran away when Hatxh was more vigorous and drew the whip?

For the record I'm not on the TNO for the Champion Hurdle so I'm not making a case to fit an ante post bet. Jezki is the current value IMO, but it's unlikely I'll play until all the major trials have been run.
 
The Sussex is a bit extreme EC but the same concept. Not quite sure how far you expected TNO to win by.
Could bring Jezki in to it. Beaten by CCB in the Irish Champion. Different outcome in a proper race.

Anyway think we have passed enough time on this. We'll agree to disagree on this one. :)
 
In flat racing the overall time of a Group race won't necessarily be faster than a handicap over the same trip on the same day, but the winner of the Group race will generally have had to run faster at some point in the race than any horse has gone in the handicap.

The handicapper who can run fast at an even pace will be beaten when upped to a Group race by a horse that can go with him and then quicken.

Ok, these are big generalisations but I suspect they are broadly correct.

I wouldn't be confident saying the same thing about jump races. Plenty of good races in Ireland are won by a turn of foot but is the main criterion for success in championship jump races to do with the max speed a horse can produce or its ability to sustain a strong speed further than its rivals?
 
How do we judge HF's two CH wins?

The first in 2011 appeared to be a sprint that Peddlers Cross was always going to lose, but in 2013 HF was off the bridle between the second and third last and it seemed that he couldn't keep up with the pace that that RoR had served up (like the previous year but we know HF wasn't 100% in 2012). However, he then managed to get it back together and then outsprint RoR. How did the pace work there?

Genuine question, EC. I remain fascinated by all of this.
 
Len Madeiros said:
How do we judge HF's two CH wins?

The first in 2011 appeared to be a sprint that Peddlers Cross was always going to lose, but in 2013 HF was off the bridle between the second and third last and it seemed that he couldn't keep up with the pace that that RoR had served up (like the previous year but we know HF wasn't 100% in 2012). However, he then managed to get it back together and then outsprint RoR. How did the pace work there?

Genuine question, EC. I remain fascinated by all of this.
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Worth you taking a look at the previous Champion Hurdle threads, to get a view on that, Len. I can't afford to get sucked into another vortex!!
 
Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross both stopped in 2011 with their stamina shot Len (very poor renewal) Fly had used his tactical speed but grimly held on to just about out last a flakey stayer, albeit his own Neptune win (unlike The New Ones) was pretty close to being a par result suggetsing he should have stayed the better. I can only assume that the faster pace in the middle section had taken it's toll on Peddlers Cross

Both were well beaten by at about four novices running an hour earlier

:whistle:
 
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Len Madeiros said:
How do we judge HF's two CH wins?

The first in 2011 appeared to be a sprint that Peddlers Cross was always going to lose, but in 2013 HF was off the bridle between the second and third last and it seemed that he couldn't keep up with the pace that that RoR had served up (like the previous year but we know HF wasn't 100% in 2012). However, he then managed to get it back together and then outsprint RoR. How did the pace work there?

Genuine question, EC. I remain fascinated by all of this.
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i will put figures up later
 
It'll be interesting to see what explanations the Hurricane Fly apologists can come up with as he limps over the line as stretcher bearer for Peddlers Cross

"I don't understand maths and numbers" (E-) isn't good enough - must try harder
 
i think you getting confused with 2013 Warbler tbh

in 2011 it was a speedier test..2013 was the year when it was slower by far than the supreme..but wasn't the difference between the overall times partly put down to frost coming out of the ground and them churning the top off in the supreme..hence a direct overall time was a bit misleading
 
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Len Madeiros said:
How do we judge HF's two CH wins?

The first in 2011 appeared to be a sprint that Peddlers Cross was always going to lose, but in 2013 HF was off the bridle between the second and third last and it seemed that he couldn't keep up with the pace that that RoR had served up (like the previous year but we know HF wasn't 100% in 2012). However, he then managed to get it back together and then outsprint RoR. How did the pace work there?

Genuine question, EC. I remain fascinated by all of this.
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i'll try and keep this straightforward

for as complete accuracy as possible i'm not using the pars gleaned roughly from just 3 races as i did earlier in thread..i only used those 3 races to show what even pace...or close to it looked like from 3 known evenish races..an on the board demo...these are median par % from 19 races with the 2 fastest and 2 lowest removed to get a true ideal pace %

if anyone wants the Rooster Booster ones done using these more accurate pars..i'll post them..i doubt anyone will be bothered though..just offering thats all

so firstly..these are as accurate as can be gleaned unless someone has timed 40 races like:p..unlikely with the lack of interest:).

The last section isn't from the last hurdle..because this hurdle moved about 2009..so haven't bothered..but this will do to show pace spread

Just to add..if the % is higher than par % its slower than even pace

Even pace pars
H1 - H3 = 38.65%
H3 - H4 = 10.93%
H4 - H5 = 09.19%
H5 - H6 = 16.22%
H6 - H7 = 07.85%
H7 - FIN= 17.16%
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then look at the splits for each year

Hurricane Fly 2011
H1 - H3 = 39.01%
H3 - H4 = 11.14%
H4 - H5 = 09.17%
H5 - H6 = 15.67%
H6 - H7 = 07.77%
H7 - FIN= 17.25%

Total Race time from 1H to finish = 222.99

To put that into lengths faster or slower than even pace in each section just turn the % difference at each hurdle into time then divide by 0.20 to get a rough length

when done..it looks like this

Hurricane Fly 2011
H1 - H3 = 4 lengths slow
H3 - H4 = 2.3 lengths slow
H4 - H5 = 0.0 lengths even..well near enough
H5 - H6 = 6 lengths fast
H6 - H7 = 1 length fast
H7 - FIN= 1 length slow

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Hurricane Fly 2013
H1 - H3 = 37.68%
H3 - H4 = 10.53%
H4 - H5 = 09.06%
H5 - H6 = 16.22%
H6 - H7 = 07.69%
H7 - FIN= 18.82%

Total Race time from 1H to finish = 228.66

Hurricane Fly 2013
H1 - H3 = 11 lengths fast
H3 - H4 = 4.5 lengths fast
H4 - H5 = 1.5 lengths fast
H5 - H6 = 0.0 lengths even
H6 - H7 = 1.6 lengths fast
H7 - FIN= 19 lengths slow

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make of those what you will..i have discussed these to death and beyond in the past..and i'm sure no one wants to go there again

so will leave you with it Len
 
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I think 2011 is the more interesting one because there's so few hiding places for the Hurricanes apologists (if any). 2013 you argue about pace bias and not being able to make time up once it's been surrendered. The 2011 sections don't carry that explanation.

Basically the Supreme goes quicker through the early sections and then slows up. The Champion goes slower through the early sections and then speeds up. There was never that much between them though

By the time they reach the sixth flight both races are within a tenth of a second as I recall

Under these circumstances the Champion hurdlers should start to pull away and normally open up something like a 2 secs advantage by the end

Indeed as they clear the seventh hurdle I seem to recall the Champion hurdlers have gone fractionally faster

It's the final sections however that give the lie to Hurricane Fly's stamina. Both he and Peddlers Cross start to collapse dramatically despite duelling with each other. This isn't one of those eased down performances that affect times. They're both flat out, but empty.

The Supreme horses however are running on under the same pressure. All four of them beat the Champion horses from a standing start in effect. We know who they are now of course (Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre & Cue Card) but they all saw the Supreme out under very similar conditions, better than the Champion hurdlers saw the feature race out over the same C&D

If mad Colin ever decides that he can't win a Gold Cup, and that the Ryan Air is a consolation he doesn't want again, he'd have options at 2 miles on this evidence
 
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From RP analysis, 2011 CH.

The previously unbeaten Peddlers Cross was following a well-trodden path having won last year´s Neptune Investment Novices´ Hurdle and it was still likely the best of him had yet been seen. He tracked his front-running stablemate and was asked for his effort nearing three out. However, he is more of a grinder than a speed horse and would have ideally enjoyed more of a test. That made him a sitting duck for the winner, but his attitude once headed was brave and he pushed him all the way to the finish.
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Completely agree with the above summary, and his win in a truly run Neptune, and his later victory in a 22f chase, also give lie to the notion that he didn't last home.
Had his pacemaker (Overturn) set a similar pace to one he did a year later, PC may even have won it.
 
It's the more likely explanation in truth. Peddlers didn't have the speed, Hurricance didn't have the stamina. Both finished off slowly but one had to win. Both were soundly beaten by the novices, but critically both of them slow down significantly in the final section - that's the bit that no one's been able to explain. The novices scream away from them. The only explanation were if they collided - but they don't. If Peddlers were staying on, then he'd stay on same speed, or at least be able to match the novices. Both horses run very slow though compared to the previous sections and comparative sections. Why?
 
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