Champion Hurdle 2015

EC, This all comes down to pace which we agree is key.
For example, sorry to the jumping fanatics to bring the flat in to it but let's take Kingman in the Sussex for example, he beat Darwin a length or so. We know that is not his true superiority over Darwin. Pace in the race only allowed him to beat him that far. Where would Darwin have finished in a Guineas.
My own view is that TNO won pretty easy enough without showing his optimum as the pace didn't allow it.

Just my view :)
 
Frankel said:
EC, This all comes down to pace which we agree is key.
For example, sorry to the jumping fanatics to bring the flat in to it but let's take Kingman in the Sussex for example, he beat Darwin a length or so. We know that is not his true superiority over Darwin. Pace in the race only allowed him to beat him that far. Where would Darwin have finished in a Guineas.
My own view is that TNO won pretty easy enough without showing his optimum as the pace didn't allow it.

Just my view :)
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you took it to the extreme with that race...but the point is valid...you can't fully the measure the performance in simplified ways..but there isn't a lot more can be done with limited data..data is key.

interesting that it comes up with similar ratings to the form view though

but probably only minorly interesting..but we got to talk about something..march is a long way off

i'll just add again..if you missed it..TNO won't win the CH
 
EC1 said:
you took it to the extreme with that race...but the point is valid...you can't fully the measure the performance in simplified ways..but there isn't a lot more can be done with limited data..data is key.

interesting that it comes up with similar ratings to the form view though

but probably only minorly interesting..but we got to talk about something..march is a long way off

i'll just add again..if you missed it..TNO won't win the CH
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I did bring it from a different angle that's true.

I'll also add just in case you missed it. Jezki should be fav. :cool:
 
Frankel said:
EC, This all comes down to pace which we agree is key.
For example, sorry to the jumping fanatics to bring the flat in to it but let's take Kingman in the Sussex for example, he beat Darwin a length or so. We know that is not his true superiority over Darwin. Pace in the race only allowed him to beat him that far. Where would Darwin have finished in a Guineas.
My own view is that TNO won pretty easy enough without showing his optimum as the pace didn't allow it.

Just my view :)
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This is it. he did what he had to do as the race unfolded. Why did he need to go any faster? It was six lengths of something? Why did he need to win by more?
 
But he couldn't win more..that is key to the analysis..he was at full stretch..that is one bit that is obvious...he showed his full powers from the last..and actually started showing before then

if he had won easily..i'd say yes maybe he could have gone faster..i also was generous in the rating..i gave him more than he showed..the wfa for one..baby should have another 4lb allowed..but i crossed that off..i also added 5lb..for those who think he won easily

i'll add again..this race was no jog and sprint..it had a lull..but a million miles away from a jog and sprint..in a jog and sprint the 2nd horse would have been badly outpaced like Reet has already said..he wasn't he was run away from by a horse that had more quality than him..and what exactly is vaniteux's level anyway?..its 6 length ahead of a 133 hoss..on that form..lets see what he does over the coming weeks

if it was a soft pace..how come 156 rated Zamdy man folded like a pack of cards..surely would have kept going with an easy lead?
 
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No. He is always rousted along a bit at end of races. That's his style. He wasnt hard ridden as you say. He wasnt stretched to the limit at all.
 
he was a full tilt from what i watched..i don't see easily or comfortably in the RP comment either..for a horse that won easy.. twiston was doing a good impression of animal off muppet show on his back..a bit odd a jockey going off like that when there is lots left under bonnet

don't forget..even though i don't agree..i added 5 lengths to his effort..free gratis imo..and still you think he could have won 5+ more lengths..really?
 
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It is not at all obvious that TNO had given everything in the Bula, EC1. That is the imponderable in all this, and what renders any rating questionable (both ways), because it is based on wholly subject measurement.
 
why was the jockey so animated then Grass?.in my experience a horse with loads in hand usually has a jockey nearly motionless on its back..i'll repeat..i gave him 5lb extra to appease the idea he had something more..how much more should add to a fully driven out horse..10 lengths 20?
 
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He just went when he wanted to. Harchibald wasn't rousted. brave inca was. Different horses are ridden in different ways . He was pushed out. That's all
 
Have to say EC I think you are wide of the mark on this one.
TNO has run well within himself up to the last then stretched away giving weight. Who he beat is slightly irrelevant as he only ran to how the race unfolded.
He would have looked more impressive had they started racing further out.
From the 2nd last Hargam was asked for a certain amount of effort. TNO was well within himself yet still ran faster so that alone is slightly misleading.
I'll mention the Sussex again. He won a length. Run it again and he could have won it 5 lengths.
 
Frankel said:
Have to say EC I think you are wide of the mark on this one.
TNO has run well within himself up to the last then stretched away giving weight. Who he beat is slightly irrelevant as he only ran to how the race unfolded.
He would have looked more impressive had they started racing further out.
From the 2nd last Hargam was asked for a certain amount of effort. TNO was well within himself yet still ran faster so that alone is slightly misleading.
I'll mention the Sussex again. He won a length. Run it again and he could have won it 5 lengths.
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in what way was this like the sussex stakes?..can you not read the figures?..the sussex stakes was the slowest race in the history of racing..its not a comparison with this at all in reality...do you really think Vaniteux would be there if it was?..why didn't Zamdy Man keep going off a pace you say..against all evidence..was like the sussex stakes..surely he would been chasing TNO all the way even when headed..with such an easy lead


one reason zamdy weakened..and the pace slackened at top of hill was he had had enough..strange behaviour for a hardened 156 front runner i would think of an apparently easy lead.

now i'm definitely have a lie down..well going to watch me xmas hamper come to fruition..hopefully:)
 
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EC1 said:
why was the jockey so animated then Grass?.in my experience a horse with loads in hand usually has a jockey nearly motionless on its back..i'll repeat..i gave him 5lb extra to appease the idea he had something more..how much more should add to a fully driven out horse..10 lengths 20?
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The jockey was a claimer who lucked into the ride in a G2, on a Champion Hurdle prospect. What were you expecting - an impression of Carberry?

That's not the point anyway.

The point I was trying to make is regarding the danger in comparing TNO's last-sector time from yesterday, against that of a juvenile in last season's Triumph......and then trying to mark TNO down on that basis. It's a very bare time-assessment, and does not appear - at face-value, at least - to account for the way the Bula was run, or the ease of TNO's victory. Even if we agree that 'ease of victory' is a questionable measurement (you have your view, I have mine), it must at least make you think twice about the validity of the time comparison with the juvenile?
 
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EC1 said:
in what way was this like the sussex stakes?..can you not read the figures?..the sussex stakes was the slowest race in the history of racing..its not a comparison with this at all in reality...do you really think Vaniteux would be there if it was?..why didn't Zamdy Man keep going off a pace you say..against all evidence..was like the sussex stakes..surely he would been chasing TNO all the way even when headed..with such an easy lead


one reason zamdy weakened..and the pace slackened at top of hill was he had had enough..strange behaviour for a hardened 156 front runner i would think of an aparently very easy lead...

now i'm definitely have a lie down..well going to watch me xmas hamper come to fruition..hopefully:)
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The whole point is EC that he is more than a length better than Darwin. Pace dictates a race and how the horse is ridden.
Simple really, he's better than them.
We clearly saw this race differently.

Think maybe you should :cool:
 
Even clockers will agree that it's a different game timing the Flat, as opposed to the Jumps.

Any time/pace references to events played-out under the Gaylord Code, should therefore be struck from the record, and saved for a separate Thread under the main Racing Forum. We can all ignore it from there, with one less click. :cool:
 
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Grasshopper said:
Even clockers will agree that it's a different game timing the Flat, as opposed to the Jumps.

Any time/pace references to events played-out under the Gaylord Code, should therefore be struck from the record, and saved for a separate Thread under the main Racing Forum. We can all ignore it from there, with one less click. :cool:
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:D
 
Why race in the UK is a good Champion Hurdle trial in the last 10 years given the winner has been Irish trained most of the time. Bloody stats and trends.
 
Grasshopper said:

The point I was trying to make is regarding the danger in comparing TNO's last-sector time from yesterday, against that of a juvenile in last season's Triumph......and then trying to mark TNO down on that basis. It's a very bare time-assessment, and does not appear - at face-value, at least - to account for the way the Bula was run, or the ease of TNO's victory. Even if we agree that 'ease of victory' is a questionable measurement (you have your view, I have mine), it must at least make you think twice about the validity of the time comparison with the juvenile?
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you don't read things thoroughly..i haven't compared his final sectional against a juvenile in last years Triumph...what are you talking about Grass?

this is what gets me..people don't read things properly..just takes a few minutes..but then spend more time replying to say its irrelevant

i'm not saying its a great way to assess it..what i am saying is we have so little to actually put a figure on that race..well i've put a figure on it using two different ways

Yes Frankel..strangely enough i understand pace..if i were you i'd read the what you backing thread a bit..95% of my selections are based on pace analysis...and give very good rewards

and no..its not so easy over twigs to do the same...but when you get two races ..on the same day..you can have a play at having a stab

comparing that race to the sussex..the slowest race in history...is pure nonsense...yes i'm sure TNO is worth a mark up..i gave him one..i also favoured him on the WFA...and he still didn't do much damage to a young hurdler with his amazing dash up the hill. His time from the last..with the lull in pace,,,should have blitzed a young hurdlers time.

no its not set in stone..no its not totally 100%..but its better than posting one line ..oh that was a good win..well..was it a good win for potential CH winner..not imo

we will see over the season how good TNO is champion wise..evidence i've seen over the last 18 months is he will come up short

as he is one of leading contenders..his races deserve scrutiny so we can actually have some idea what they are worth
 
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My mistake in transposing - it was the Pars you used from a previous Festival jvenile race - the analysis related to relative-times of Hargam versus TNO.

It was an honest mistake, and in no way means I've failed to read your posts correctly. Indeed, I've spent a great deal of time trying to get my head around this, and I reach the same conclusion every time i.e. it's no more/less a scientific approach than any other form analysis......and like all other types of form analysis, if you interpret things a certain way, it can lead you down a dead-end.
 
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I think what EC1's findings suggest is the TNO's top speed isn't that much faster than other decent types. But would HUrricane Fly's top speed be that much faster?

I'm not sure there is that much of a difference between a Grade 3 horse's top speed and an average Grade 1 horse's. It's the ability to sustain speed over a greater distance that sets them apart when it matters. Now and again you get a top Gr1 horse which has a really fast top speed - in which case it will always be favoured by a slower pace - and sometimes you get one that has both the speed and the ability to sustain it over further, in which case you end up with a champion, perhaps of a generation.

At the risk of upsetting my friends across the pond, I still can't get my head round the idea of Hurricane Fly, who has picked up weak Gr1 upon weak Gr 1 due to his toe, being in the same league as Istabraq who had it all.

TNO's best chance might be off a strong pace but I'm also among the ranks of the unconvinced that he would have won last season with an uninterrupted passage. We remain in a depression as far as top 2m hurdlers are concerned. We're still a good bit above Flakey Dove territory but still some way off the mid-high 170 category. Maybe something will come along this season but I'm not convinced we've seen it yet.

Edit - I should add, I really haven't taken any kind of in-depth look at the Champion Hurdle yet. I'm probably subconsciously still trying to get over Our Conor who I think was the type I've been looking for.
 
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Ec. You have made some bold and damning statemenrs about tno so posters will take you up on that

I risk repeating myself but a horse that finished two lengths off the winner after that passage is deemed to have no chance is one of the strangest things I have seen in this forum. Its illogical.
 
Clivex
Maybe you'd like to explain why TNO was completely done for toe, during 'that passage' - without your usual insults, for preference?
 
Grasshopper said:
My mistake in transposing - it was the Pars you used from a previous Festival jvenile race - the analysis related to relative-times of Hargam versus TNO.

It was an honest mistake, and in no way means I've failed to read your posts correctly. Indeed, I've spent a great deal of time trying to get my head around this, and I reach the same conclusion every time i.e. it's no more/less a scientific approach than any other form analysis......and like all other types of form analysis, if you interpret things a certain way, it can lead you down a dead-end.
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i actually combined Triumph hurdles and Conty Hurdles to give a bigger sample to get the pars..unfortunately they move the hurdles which i had to explain..and i have re timed using the proper hurdles just to compare the two races on the day

no i'm not saying its any more scientific..but it does give a numeric picture of what we watched that is a bit more in depth than AvB.

Don't forget in all this..TNO would have had to carry 4lb more for wfa to make this a level playing field with Hargam...i didn't penalise him for that..and on top gave him 5 more lengths for supposed ease.

Both methods..AvB using OHR of placed horse come up with a similar figure for TNO...which for me makes it interesting and does put a decent evaluation on the race

It certainly hasn't told us anything that should in any way alter TNO's price for the CH

I'm just wondering..and someone else has mentioned this..is ...how many races are they going to put into TNO in total this season before he runs at CH?

Personally i'd love to see the top hurdlers run like they used to in the 70's..but if only one is consistently running i'm getting the feeling they will leave any chance of winning behind.
 
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