Champion Hurdle 2015

TNO was outpaced turning for the hill last year, that is unquestionable.

What is questionable is whether it was as a result of the earlier incident and having to make up the ground. I'm not convinced it was as due to the way the race panned out he didn't need to use up too much effort.

All that said, take that away this year and Sam will be able to have him handier and kick on earlier, making it more about stamina - ala Rock On Ruby - and if that is the case then he is a major player.
 
Problem with that approach, Lee, is that there's no guarantee he could 'kick-on' hard enough to get Jezki off the bridle over 2m. In my view, TNO would simply tow faster horses into the race, and always be vulnerable to something that can quicken off a strong pace over the minimum trip.
 
Grasshopper said:
Problem with that approach, Lee, is that there's no guarantee he could 'kick-on' hard enough to get Jezki off the bridle over 2m. In my view, TNO would simply tow faster horses into the race, and always be vulnerable to something that can quicken off a strong pace over the minimum trip.
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Agree with every word of that

TNO would smash up the Aintree hurdle
 
I would have thought that the idea of kicking on was to take the speed out of them? And it would do so a/la roR
 
clivex said:
So on that basis nor did mtoy . He ran in the Xmas hurdle too and was stretched

Its a bit strange to say that "looked like" an unlucky run after what happened. It's inconceivable that he would not have been closer

I think he's the main contender on a number of fronts. There is abolsutely nothing wrong with having a bit of extra stamina for the ch. plenty have haven't they?
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Did MTOY win the CH though?...and at Kempton he was ridden further back than TNO..to use the speed he has against the stamina of TNO...neither horse there showed anything special with their closing times to suggest they are top notchers

I think neither he orTNO are not ideal candidates for a CH..i actually think MTOY would have been beaten further in the CH had Our Conor completed...because OC never had an issue beating Jezki on previous form.

The Christmas hurdle is a good race for checking a CH contender and TNO failed to run the last section in a time that suggests 2 miles is his forte.

Like i said..in the CH..TNO was in a 2 mile race..until he got hampered..his race then turned into more of a stamina test that suited him..if he had not been hampered he would have been beaten further imo as he would have been sat with and the speedier types would have got away from him

I hope he wins for you and those who back him..to me he will be outpaced and then they will go back to 2.5 miles where he belongs. There is a fine line with having that bit of extra stamina for the CH and having too much..he's got too much.

Look at his form..all the best is over 2m4+. The stayers hurdle would be more in line with his profile..the CH is just a pipedream.
 
Flat out 'kicked on' for the last 1/2 mile of a soft ground Xmas hurdle - and still didn't have the speed.
 
I've watched the replay of last years race countless times. TNO was impeded as we all know but by 3 out he was back in the mix, without STD having to get after him. It was when they kicked on after 3 out that he got outpaced and then ran on again up the hill.
He then won the Aintree Hurdle but hardly smashed it up, in fact he was all out to win.
I'm pretty sure that the winner will come from Ireland again, Faugheen ticks all of the boxes for me.
 
There is so much selective interpreatation here. Tigger you are seemingly dismissing the impeding as if it had no bearing at all. That is completely unrealistic.
 
clivex said:
Tell you what. Why dont you watch the race?
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Reet is right I reckon, clive.

TNO was pretty-much flat to the boards all the way up the straight, with MTOY sitting comfortably in his slipstream. TNO never took him off the bridle at any stage. It's only MTOY's questionable constitution that allowed TNO to hang-in with him after making a hash of the last....imho.

Either way, there's no evidence to suggest that TNO could lay it on thick enough, to get a top-end 2-miler in trouble - he'd merely set things up for them (again, imo).
 
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Imo, it's MTOY's stamina that is questionable, rather than his constitution. He tanked for much of the Xmas hurdle, yet still TNO didn't have the speed to drain what was left of his energy.
 
Grasshopper said:
Reet is right I reckon, clive.

It's only MTOY's questionable constitution that allowed TNO to hang-in with him after making a hash of the last....imho.
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that is the difference on that day for certain...and again i'll mention the sectionals..which i said after the race did not suggest that TNO had the speed to win a CH..he was at full throttle so his time was the best he could muster ..whereas MTOY looked like the speed horse waiting to pounce..but then didn't find what visually he looked to be offering ...both horses were questionable for a CH for two different reasons..TNO..not fast enough..and MTOY not finding what he looked like delivering
 
TNO was outpaced in the Champion though exaggerated as the ground he lost early on clearly had an impact. Yes Sam was rowing along but also clearly aware not to throw the full shebang to early after what went on early. You can make a case for him picking up the pieces late on though I feel that is slightly unfair. Would Jezki or Tent have finished closer with same scenario, I would say doubtful. They certainly wouldn't have won imo.
Having said that TNO is clearly an in running play for punters. I think he will need the race to have fast early/mid fractions to have a chance of winning.
Jezki will be hard to crack again I think.
 
this is the point though isn't isn't it?..if Jezki or MTOY had had same interference they would have lost by further than TNO as they aren't stamina horses..it would have wasted their speedier energy..whereas with TNO it played to his tank of petrol that plays out more slowly over further

the fact TNO made the ground up tells you he can stay on...not speed on

we are back to the old argument...if you had a top mile and half horse on the flat...would you keep running him at a mile?
 
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Grasshopper said:
Problem with that approach, Lee, is that there's no guarantee he could 'kick-on' hard enough to get Jezki off the bridle over 2m. In my view, TNO would simply tow faster horses into the race, and always be vulnerable to something that can quicken off a strong pace over the minimum trip.
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granger said:
Agree with every word of that
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I'd be inclined to agree also but I believe that's his best chance and there are different ways of 'kicking on'. Rock on Ruby didn't turn on any afterburners, he just gradually kept increasing the temp sufficiently enough to catch others napping and get horses like your old stalwart Hurricane Fly playing catch up and he had the stamina to see it through.

A similar approach 'may' work for The New One given his proven stamina and while my money will probably go elsewhere nearer the day, I certainly wouldn't be ruling the Twister horse out.

Jezki on the other hand appears to have no such question marks and I'd have him very slight favorite at this point.

Faugheen still has so much to prove regardless of how good he looked in his novice year and there has to be a very slight doubt he'll even turn up for the race given his connections.
 
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to be fair..if you can't remove a horse like TNO from calculations then i don't see how you can differentiate between most horses ..so you might as well just back the first five in the betting on the day and leave it at that

in this game you don't get it written in stone telling you X horse won't win at top level at X trip..you have to work it out..sometimes from small amounts of evidence...but if you can't do that then you will end up being unable to decide what is what from the first 5 in most grade 1 races
 
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The point I was trying to make EC is that Sam clearly waited longer than intended to throw the kitchen cink at him because of what happened earlier.
As for the flat argument. Plenty are capable of racing outside their optimum depending on ground and pace.
 
i know plenty can race outside of limits..but if you had a G1 horse that won 1.5 mile races..would you keep running him at 1 mile?

You have to test the water yes..they tested it twice against decent oppo with TNO..once in Xmas hurdle and once in the CH...in neither race did he look anywhere near the horse he had at further..so why keep doing it when there are longer distance prizes there for the taking...2.5 m 3m staying races he would be mopping up,,lots of easy coin there for a horse of his level..at those trips

how many more races before they do that..10?..never?

its just daft imo..and illogical
 
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Yep see what your saying EC but maybe he is entitled to another crack on the back of what happened. Like most I think he'll probably come up short.
 
Phil Turner (Timeform) on last years race

Would The New One have won without meeting that early interference? I don't think so. Obviously he made up a lot of ground, but he was doing it at a stage of the race where the taps hadn't really turned on and I think people can get a bit carried away when they see a horse making up ground like that.
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