Champion Hurdle 2015

wilsonl said:
I'd be inclined to agree also but I believe that's his best chance and there are different ways of 'kicking on'. Rock on Ruby didn't turn on any afterburners, he just gradually kept increasing the temp sufficiently enough to catch others napping and get horses like your old stalwart Hurricane Fly playing catch up and he had the stamina to see it through.

A similar approach 'may' work for The New One given his proven stamina and while my money will probably go elsewhere nearer the day, I certainly wouldn't be ruling the Twister horse out.
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Rock Ruby was another that didn't have the speed to win a Xmas Hurdle, but got lucky in the Champion as Overturn set such a searing pace, and the Fly and Binocular didn't perform.
Maybe TNO will have similar sort of luck, but I'd bet againsst it.
 
You can pick holes in Binocular all day long.
Also the Fly around Cheltenham. Though not sure we wanna be opening that whole can of worms again.
 
Agree with all The New One Negativity
But the record of horses who stay well winning the Arkle should ensure that is the 2016 winning enclosure he stands in.
 
The problem he'll face is unlike Overturn in the RoR race and now the JP trained horses, his connections don't have anything they can use as a pacemaker who given sufficient lead could win the race himself.

Maybe he'll try and make all - or at least from some way out - which may have been the plan last year prior to the interference.
 
Paddy Power has priced up the Morgiana

Hurricane Fly 10/11
Jezki evens
Tiger Roll 10/1
Melodic Rendevous 14/1
Little King Robin 14/1
King Of The Picts 33/1
 
The Fly could have one last dance here. Bound to be ahead fitness wise than in previous years. Just a stepping stone for Jezki.
 
I don't know why they don't just go for the World Hurdle with the New One and get it over and done with.

He could of course win the Champion Hurdle but IMO only if Jezki doesn't reproduce the same type of form he did back in March.

When I saw Vautour win at the Festival I thought he'd be the one to follow in the Fly's footsteps but it would seem WM sees it differently.

When you are wrong you just need to stand up and admit it and learn from you mistakes.

The way I look at it, if he thinks Faugheen is the better horse for the job then he must be some tool as I would have given Vautour one helluva chance of winning.

That makes Faugheen very hard to oppose so I will stick with him unless something tells us he's not as good as he has looked to date.

It's a pity MTOY is out for the season. AP was amazed he found so much after pulling so hard and they would surely have had a great chance of reversing places with Jezki if he learned to settle.

With him gone it looks like a straight shoot out between the front 3.

No surprise The New One is/was favourite. Pretty much par for the course with the bookies.

Year after year when the first major contender appears the bookies cut them drastically.

The betting should read IMO Jezki 7/2 Faugheen 4/1 The New One 5/1

Jezki is the reigning champion and was even more impressive when he kicked Hurricane Fly aside like he was nothing in the Fly's favourite type of race

The New One would need the race to be run at a zillion miles per hour as he doesn't seem to possess enough natural speed to outrun the other two.

No matter what way you look at it Faugheen is a novice who needs to improve almost a stone on ratings to win a Champion Hurdle but in realty probably about 4 lbs is nearer the truth
With WM training him that should not be a problem

There's a lingering doubt about Jezki. Would have have beaten Our Conor? and was Hurricane Fly only a shadow of his old self when he beat him.

Faugheen looks the most sensible bet at the moment but 7/2 is a bit stingy
 
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If Timeform ratings are anything to go by, Faugheen needs to find about 6lbs to be going close in a Champion Hurdle.
 
the morgiana is tricky imo...lots of mixed messages...is HF always inferior to J now?...could HF beat him FTO..then again HF has looked rusty on FTO run before

what do you think about the race Grassy?
 
Grasshopper said:
If Timeform ratings are anything to go by, Faugheen needs to find about 6lbs to be going close in a Champion Hurdle.
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6lbs is largely immaterial at this stage of the season. In fact I'd take that as a huge positive if that's all it has to find since a good novice can still improve a stone in its second season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
6lbs is largely immaterial at this stage of the season. In fact I'd take that as a huge positive if that's all it has to find since a good novice can still improve a stone in its second season.
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Agreed......if the mark for Faugheen is accurate, he should put himself right in the picture with normal progression. Personally, I have my doubts about quite how highly they have rated him on the back of his Punchestown win - they have him about a half-stone clear of Vautour, and I'm not convinced there's that much between them.
 
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EC1 said:
the morgiana is tricky imo...lots of mixed messages...is HF always inferior to J now?...could HF beat him FTO..then again HF has looked rusty on FTO run before

what do you think about the race Grassy?
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I'm trying hard not to give it too much thought, EC1!

Hoping for the best, but if Jezki is on-song, there's no real reason to think that HF can turn the form around from last spring.......old bones.
 
Desert Orchid said:
6lbs is largely immaterial at this stage of the season. In fact I'd take that as a huge positive if that's all it has to find since a good novice can still improve a stone in its second season.
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agree...and i know we don't see it a lot but there is always chance of a horse that can go through handicap ranks and improve 20 or 30lbs..your Collier Bay..Make A Stand types

many horses will improve a lot more than 6lbs from now until CH day..to be fair at this stage..its just a complete guessing game..you could put 10 horses up and still not get the winner
 
i'm not totally sold on him being gone at the game tbh Grass...what is leading people in that direction is that a horse as consistent as he has been only has to throw in two losses and it looks that way in relation his 1111111 form. It will be a very interesting race that is for sure.
 
EC1 said:
i'm not totally sold on him being gone at the game tbh Grass...what is leading people in that direction is that a horse as consistent as he has been only has to throw in two losses and it looks that way in relation his 1111111 form. It will be a very interesting race that is for sure.
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I'm not sold on the idea either, EC - but time catches-up with them all, and it's hard to see how he could win another CH at 11yo. The Stayers, however, is a different matter! :ninja: :lol:

The Morgiana generally isn't that well-contested, and I doubt we'll learn a great deal from it, to be honest.
 
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EC1 said:
agree...and i know we don't see it a lot but there is always chance of a horse that can go through handicap ranks and improve 20 or 30lbs..your Collier Bay..Make A Stand types

many horses will improve a lot more than 6lbs from now until CH day..
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Maybe this one, one of Ruby Walshes dark horses on Paddys website

ARCTIC FIRE. Ran a blinder in the County Hurdle and bolted up at Punchestown. It’s a long shot but this is a horse we have always liked who could, just, progress in a Champion Hurdle-type horse. Will be worth following early in the season.
 
I just wonder if he will be anywhere near 100%.

He looked pretty fit 2 year ago when he beat C Cee B and won all his races including the Champion Hurdle.

Last season however he obviously that fit beating Marito (138) by only 1 1/4 lengths.

If he is responding well to work you could be right but I can't see WM pulling out all the stops to get him 100% at the age of 10 coming on 11years old

Jetzki who trounced him in the Racing Post won his first two last season and tbh you have to ask does he need to be 100% to beat the Fly again?

Trainers are creatures of habit especially when a plan has already worked once.

I reckon she'll want to win this and maybe another then let him down a bit and come back guns blazing for the Champion Hurdle

Jezki at around even looks the best bet to me
 
Wicklow Brave interests me today -as I see it they will want to get him relaxed after his performance at Cheltenham where he got really stewed up at the start.Might be one to back at big odds in running.
 
Will be against Tiger Roll in the place market-thought he made heavy weather of winning at Cheltenham and this race is a bit tastier.
 
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