I took 33/1 this morning Sign Of A Victory for the Champion Hurdle.
Notwithstanding Geraghty's downplaying of last Saturday's race, I think it was an unusually hot renewal. There were about seven or eight with strong chances heading for two out but once they got serious they ended up being more strung out than the 3m chasers in the following race on ground that couldn't have been soft - either that or the distances are inaccurate - and all without the winner being asked the remotest question at any stage.
The bare form remains well short of the necessary but what did he have in hand? Ten lengths? More?
Last year was ripe for something to break through and show the likelier candidates up for the moderate bunch they were. I thought Our Conor would be it. Sadly it wasn't to be. Hurricane Fly is gone. Rock On Ruby is gone. The New One, Jezki, etc are not really better than what the Fly left behind. The other current CH possibles are, in my opinion, largely short of the normal class and the ones that are probably better are already prominent in the betting.
Unusually for Henderson, after the race he suggested SOAV wouldn't be seen out again soon, that he'd very probably skip the Greatwood and go instead for the Ladbroke. That suggests they think an awful lot of this chap. I think the 11lbs hike for his win at Ascot seriously underplays his superiority. RPRs put him on 155. I think that still underestimates him. I reckon he's probably at least a 160 animal at this stage and he has another half-season in which to find the remaining improvement he'll need to win the big one. At 33/1 I reckon that's the price about him doing so and I think that's very generous.
The pundit on the RUK/ATR replay I watched suggested after the race he didn't think SOAV was acting that well on the course so if he's likely to be even better going left-handed, it's looking positives all the way.
FWIW, I reckon that race last week will throw up a number of winners in the coming weeks.