Champion Hurdle 2015

Grasshopper said:
Can't have it, EC1.

The first two home were in the first three in the previous year's Supreme, and for my money, he (Jezki) is clearly a better-than-average Champion Hurdle winner, imo. He is marked down by some because he keeps getting humped in the trials......same as is happening this season, and the same as happened in his novice season........but his record strongly suggests he is a better horse in the spring.
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I don't really buy the "best in spring" sitch though...his form in the early parts of seasons have been very good. Just because he "won" the CH in the sping doesn't make that the only bit where he is at his best

if he hadn't won last year..which i believe he wouldn't if OC had stood up..then people would be saying his best form is earlier in the season if judged on his career as a whole

i find it odd that no one questions how OC beat him quite well in the IC but can't see that OC would have done so again at Cheltenham if he had lived...OC was improving with every run and gave HF the best threat he has ever faced in the IC..what a run that was...Jezki never scared HF in his pomp there like OC did.

We often talk about races ..well if X hadn't run then x would have looked very different..well imo when you remove the winner in a race then the 2nd horse gets it by default..and i think thats what happened last year..obviously thats open to question..but i think if Jezki had faced HF on his previous Cheltenham wins he would have been beaten by your hero last year..clearly he didn't...but again..thats an underperform by HF making Jezki look more than he is.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Would you back Faugheen at current odds - Yes or No?
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No. do I think he'll win? Yes. Anyone who knows me knows that his current odds are not my type of bet. I might include him in multiples on the day if I can find other good things.

Grasshopper said:
Naturally, I'm guessing the answer will be along the lines of "No, because I'm on at a much bigger price".
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Looking for the comfort of the pack now, are we? That's a very snide remark and one I didn't really expect of you.

Grasshopper said:
Also, don't try and bring absolutes into the same argument where you use the phrase "meant to be". As we all know, bookies will cut a horse, long before weight of money (the REAL factor which determines a price) compels them to do so.
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Now you're just looking to nitpick. Exactly which "absolutes" did I try to bring in?
 
OK, DO...apologies....it was a little snide, and not really warranted. I guess I'm a little frustrated that you appear to be twisting my words, though it's perhaps more a case of me not getting my point across well enough.

As for "comfort of the pack", that's not my style either.

I'm trying not to nit-pick. The point I've (obviously failed) to get across is that Faugheen's current odds are quite possibly a reflection of a) Hurricane Fly's age and track form, b) TNO's 'dubious' 2m form and c) the under-estimation of Jezki......than they are about Faugheen's true form chance.

Hope that makes sense, and apologies again. I've just done one week off the snouts, and I'm still a little tetchy. I should be fine in another...oh, I dunno....6 or 7 years! :)
 
EC1 said:
on a speedy track like Kempton?..that has to be taken into account imo...i doubt very much that course played to Faugheen's strengths

on a flat track its surprising how hard it is to run away from supposedly poorer oppo...you don't have anything apart from better ability slowing them down..no steep finish to ebb away petrol...its a pretty honest test on a flat track

if the CH was run there i would imagine the finishing distances between horses would be less than at Cheltenham over a number of races
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One could equally argue that Kempton wasn't in TNO's favour last season when he just lost out to a much better horse (MTOY) than Purple Bay. Still hadn't the speed for a CH though.
 
i can see why you aren't in your right mind now Grass..lack of nicotine:)

aye its a bad habit..one i need to address as well...i'll probably get into crack cocaine to get me off it..no one ever suggests that method do they?:)
 
Apology accepted, Gh. Twisting others' words isn't my style either and it certainly wasn't my intention to do so.

On my bare ratings Faugheen is behind HF's highest rating. I haven't compiled ratings for the main contenders (I have them annotated in the form book, just haven't tabulated them for comparison purposes) but on what I've seen he strikes me as having the potential to find several lengths on that. If I'm right, he might be value at even money. If I'm wrong then he's no value.
 
reet hard said:
One could equally argue that Kempton wasn't in TNO's favour last season when he just lost out to a much better horse (MTOY) than Purple Bay. Still hadn't the speed for a CH though.
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Judging by this forum, that race never happened. I was there but i must have been hallucinating
 
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EC1 said:
were you at Haydock other Saturday as well?

all out to get up...but would have won by 20 though over another half mile
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Proves my point. One race in heavy ground and one below par performance obliterates every previous run. Its an absolute nonsense to state hes a plodder that needs 20f after the xmas hurdle
 
reet hard said:
One could equally argue that Kempton wasn't in TNO's favour last season when he just lost out to a much better horse (MTOY) than Purple Bay. Still hadn't the speed for a CH though.
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you say much better horse..but when MTOY beat TNO he was rated about the same horse as PB..160..so not seeing that Faugheen hasn't beaten a lot inferior horse..in fact if we use the OHR's..then Faugheen has buried MTOY whereas TNO lost to a similar horse at that point in time
 
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clivex said:
Proves my point. One race in heavy ground and one below par performance obliterates every previous run. Its an absolute nonsense to state hes a plodder that needs 20f after the xmas hurdle
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obliterates what though?..an obvious stayers form in a CH...still equals another loss in the next one
 
Unless it turns up heavy at the Festival the Haydock race told us nothing.

He was all out to get up because he didn't travel on the ground and wanted to follow that thing that was leading out right at every hurdle. He was clearly distracted and jumped without fluency. When STD got busy he responded and showed a turn of foot on horrible ground.

I've been sitting back amused at these definitive opinions. On known form there is little to split the top three in the market, and unless something goes horribly wrong they will finish very close to each other. I would also add that the need for a longer trip for TNO could also be said for the other two, and that is precisely why they will be the first three home. It takes stamina as well as the ability to travel to win a Champion Hurdle. If the race was over two and half they'd still be the first three home.

As for a firm opinion I'm still struggling and haven't had a bet other than using Jezki ew in some multiples. If I was pressed right now I'd probably go with one of the two more experienced horses who have had the gun pressed to their head previously. None of us know how Faugheen will react if the others get him off the bridle deep into the race. I'm sure some will say that won't happen and Faugheen is just to good but I'm not buying him being several pounds clear at Championship pace around Cheltenham.
 
i think it takes 2.25 mile stamina to win the CH though..IF its a test...rather than 2.5 mile stamina..there is a difference..one errs to plodder..thats TNO

imo
 
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Faugheen has already proven he stays 3 miles though Alan. If that is the guide then Faugheen would be trailing in a distant last. :)

Istabraq has also been mentioned earlier and he won the previous seasons Sun Alliance Hurdle over 2m 5f furlong not the Supreme over the shorter distance. Faugheen and The New One also won the same race and have very similar profiles.

Another point I would make is that if anything The New One's profile is slightly less convincing when he's run over two and a half, whereas the profile of Faugheen's races mark him out of the two as more of a stayer.

The final point is that of the three, it's Jezki's overall profile that convinces more for this specific test, albeit he only beat The New One two and three quarter lengths when the latter was seriously inconvenienced by Our Connor's fall. Bu it's hard to argue that he's the one that's been there and done that so to speak, whereas with the other two we are still judging them on potential.

In conclusion, I repeat my position that I believe there will be very little between the three of them on the day, so I support Grassy's position that their respective odds don't reflect how close they are likely to be, and therefore Faugheen is poor value.
 
Faugheen has also shown he can beat an opponent of similar OHR to MTOY over a sharp 2 miles without breaking sweat...and in a tremendous time..he could be another Istabraq imo

I couldn't have TNO on my mind..or Jezki..in fact if Jezki cannot beat HF this week after the number of warm ups he has had then he is no CH winner this time round...if he is then HF should be viewed as the better option in March
 
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I think it's a little bogus to compare Purple Bay with MTOY, EC1.

MTOY had much stronger/more readily-verifiable form, based on his runs in the Betfair Hurdle and Supreme, whereas PB's rating came from a win in a hopelessly poor limited handicap hurdle. It's only three runs back that PB was besten pointless in another handicap off a mark of 153, yet I'm supposed to believe he's worth a 161 now, just because he won at Wincanton?

I ain't buying it. For me, he's been rated through Rock On Ruby following the Elite, and it's well established now that that horse is not a 2-mile hurdler. For me, PB's rating is wrong to the tune of at least a half-stone, and anyone using his 161 as a starting-point to measure Faugheen, is starting with that much of a margin-of-error.

i should add that I might be entirely wrong, and ai should further add that Faugheen may well be able to account for that 'deficit' regardless......but that is honestly how I view it, and what makes me think Faugheen is rank bad value at his current price. For me, he hasn't beaten a 2-mile hurdler of note yet, and he could easily get found out when he encounters top company for the first time.

PS. The Champion Hurdle thread wouldn't be the same fun without you contributing - chuffed you're back in play.
 
Tells you he's a lot better than Purple Bay, and not much else.

The question is 'How good is Purple Bay'?

And the answer is 'Not very'. :D
 
Grasshopper said:
I think it's a little bogus to compare Purple Bay with MTOY, EC1.

MTOY had much stronger/more readily-verifiable form, based on his runs in the Betfair Hurdle and Supreme, whereas PB's rating came from a win in a hopelessly poor limited handicap hurdle. It's only three runs back that PB was besten pointless in another handicap off a mark of 153, yet I'm supposed to believe he's worth a 161 now, just because he won at Wincanton?

I ain't buying it. For me, he's been rated through Rock On Ruby following the Elite, and it's well established now that that horse is not a 2-mile hurdler. For me, PB's rating is wrong to the tune of at least a half-stone, and anyone using his 161 as a starting-point to measure Faugheen, is starting with that much of a margin-of-error.

i should add that I might be entirely wrong, and ai should further add that Faugheen may well be able to account for that 'deficit' regardless......but that is honestly how I view it, and what makes me think Faugheen is rank bad value at his current price. For me, he hasn't beaten a 2-mile hurdler of note yet, and he could easily get found out when he encounters top company for the first time.

PS. The Champion Hurdle thread wouldn't be the same fun without you contributing - chuffed you're back in play.
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What ratings do you have for the races you cite, Gh?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think a lot of people think the same and that's why he's as short as he is rather than because of his bare form.
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That's exactly it, and as a consequence he's a very short price to find out. I'm hoping he is, and I'll be cheering with the next man if he does because we all want the next superstar.

Grassy made a good point though when he said Istabraq was 3/1 at the same point, and Faugheen is very short by comparison given they he has done no more by comparison than The New One at the same stage of his career. That's it in a nutshell for me. I couldn't back him unless he drifts, and I suspect I will end up backing one of the other two (probably Jezki).

The only other bet I could possibly be tempted by is a small ew wager on Annie Power with her mares allowance if she turned up here.
 
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