Champion Hurdle 2015

Maruco said:
Grassy made a good point though when he said Istabraq was 3/1 at the same point, and Faugheen is very short by comparison given they he has done no more by comparison than The New One at the same stage of his career.
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Yes, it was a good point. It got me thinking, that's for sure.

On the comparisons with TNO you're right about Faugheen's price. I think the difference with Istabraq is that he had been beating ordinary horses without looking that impressive. We didn't really see a championship-ratings performance until his first Champion. Faugheen's figures are already 10lbs ahead of those Istabraq had recorded en route to that first win. Unless you believe Purple Bay is over-rated by 10lbs.

Check back through the long-term record of the official handicapper with these good races. He's seldom wrong.
 
Istabraq's highest RPR prior to his first champion hurdle was 162. That's why he was 3/1.

Faugheen's so far is 169, gained pretty much at his leisure. That alone doesn't entitle him to be as short as he is but there are enough punters and bookies out there of the opinion that we're looking at a minimum of 7lbs in reserve to make the latter not want to take him on.

But it is all conjecture at this stage. I'm going to take a holiday from the thread as we aren't going to resolve anything for the time being.
 
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I agree, but there's more to it than that. Istabraq wasn't being asked to beat horses anything like the calibre of those Faugheen will need to beat, and that has to be factored in. He may win doing handstands (which I personally doubt), but essentially when you consider both those things Faugheen at 5/4 is way too short.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Istabraq's highest RPR prior to his first champion hurdle was 162. That's why he was 3/1.
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The day betting markets are determined by what RPR gives as his rating, is the day I will bare my arse in Jenners with a big sign painted on it asking Tanlic to fire one up my rear-end.

Istabraq was 3/1 for one reason, and one reason only - he was essentially unproven in the highest class, in what is always a competitive race. Faugheen has more-or-less identical credentials, but is an odds-on shot. Even if you fancy Faugheen strongly, you can surely see that his current price is anomalous in a historical context??

One thing I would concede is that, if His Song had obliged in the Supreme, and Hill Society not been chinned by Champleve, then Istabraq could very-well have started much shorter.

I backed French Ballerina that day. Easiest winner I've ever had at Chelts. *

* Only DO is allowed to use this against me, for my earlier rudeness.
 
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Grasshopper said:
The day betting markets are determined by what RPR gives as his rating, is the day I will bare my arse in Jenners with a big sign painted on it asking Tanlic to fire one up my rear-end.
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Maybe we should all petition the books to make their markets on RPR then. Digger can take the photo's and post them up. :blink:
 
Might the disparity in odds have something to do with Istabraq merely winning "soft Irish Grade Ones" before going to Cheltenham whereas Faugheen has won two trial races in England?

Or to put it in a less tendentious way, back in the days before ATR did Irish form have less impact on Cheltenham ante post markets?
 
I seem to recall that there was a stat being bandied about at the time that the winner of the Sun Alliance Hurdle had never followed up the next year. That was certainly the reason I didn't back Istabraq (dato star in case anyone is interested).

Whereas now we've had Istabraq and Hardy Eustace following up and the stat is meaningless.

But we do, of course have the Christmas Hurdle stat to overcome...
 
Grasshopper said:
Tells you he's a lot better than Purple Bay, and not much else.

The question is 'How good is Purple Bay'?

And the answer is 'Not very'. :D
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Exaclty. Year on year there were guys on here saying Celestial Halo would win the Champion Hurdle because of something he did in that Wincanton race!

It's a dangerous race to take conclusions at face value.
 
simmo said:
............dato star in case anyone is interested.
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Simmo, this only serves to confirm that you are a swashbuckler, and disinclined to follow the mewling herds....and it is to your credit.

Until the Hurricane blew through, Dato Star was by far and away my favourite hurdler.
 
Until the hype is confirmed then he has it to prove.

That's not to say he won't mind, but Jezki on better ground aint no pushover imo.

Having said that, I hope TNO storms up the hill.
 
TNO will storm the hill no prob.

unfortunately there will be a few horse arses looking back at him :D

trainer quote after race..we should have gone for the stayers instead

jockey quote after the race..i kept telling him he were too slow for a CH
 
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What a horse!! Spine tingling stuff.... He looked to be struggling at one point and touched 8/1 in running.
The tenacity off the home turn and the will to win was just unbelievable! Top Class !
 
If Jezki wins the Champion Hurdle I will eat a Fly.

Great stuff can you imagine Grassy right now he'll be ****-a-loop......hope he has a big Asda bag with him to collect the dosh.

Paddy Power has just gone 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle and who's to say??? he couldn't could he?
 
loving watching these scenes in the winners enclosure on atr. just sat here with a stupid grin on my face.
 
Double Handful said:
What a horse!! Spine tingling stuff.... He looked to be struggling at one point and touched 8/1 in running.
The tenacity off the home turn and the will to win was just unbelievable! Top Class !
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All I can say is thank f*** I turned my bot off.....I really thought at one stage he was going to finish nearer last than first and would no doubt have pressed the lay button. Got some pair on him that Ruby Walsh
 
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