Champion Hurdle 2015

Lest we forget, MTOY was beaten in the Supreme Novices after winning the Betfair off 149.

The handicapper suggests SAOV needs to improve around two-stone in seven weeks, if he is to go close in the Champion Hurdle. Whilst it's not impossible, it does seem unlikely. And if he doesn't win the Betfair off 149, they probably won't even hold his entry in the main event, because it would be pretty-much pointless running him there.

All that said, you have to back something, the front-end of the market is tight enough, and SOAV is one of the less-exposed options. It was really the suggestion that Baradari's win was a big boost for SOAV's form, that I was taking issue with.
 
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Grasshopper said:
You said that Bardari paid SAOV's Ascot form "a big compliment", and it just doesn't, in my view.........
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But it does (imo). SOAV beat him very hard held off the same mark. Dawalan has already won fairly easily so if Baradari wins a valuable race (to do so he has to be well handicapped) off the same mark yet is beaten hands down by SOAV then that form is paid a compliment. Surely?
 
I'm not knocking your bet. Kirriemuir won the Champion Hurdle at 50/1 when all said it was impossible and Toby Balding's horse (forget it's name went off as a no hoper.)

He's a bit of a dark horse he's well thought off at home but using Baradari as a form line is shooting at the moon.

You have to consider that he hadn't run for 6 months and those behind him bar one have run like mules since.

The only horse that has any decent bit of form that finished behind him was miles behind and he was probably 6 canters short of a gallop.

If Baradari had won a decent race prior to Ascot then fine but as things stand I'd have to say he was badly in need of the race having finished only a few lengths in front of a horse that Paul Nicholls swapped with Sue Smith for a packet of Golden Wonder salt and vinegar which is just about what the form of that race is worth.

It's not the race that he won it's the way he won it that gives the impression he is avery good animal
 
Is there any point in being dogmatic about the race at this stage with a few important unknowns like ground, field size, field quality and pace angle/running styles?

The important question punters must ask themselves now is when these factors are clearer at what price will you HAVE to back a horse you might not fancy now. It's not impossible that we see 6/4 Faugheen or 4/1 TNO on the morning of the race.
 
Can we clear this up?

I'm NOT using Baradari's win at the weekend as any evidence that SOAV can win the CH. I'm saying it reinforces the belief that the Ascot win was better than generally believed. I've already said more than once that SOAV needs to improve a lot on that race. What I HAVE said is the that I believe he may have had upwards of 10 lengths in reserve and that there was no way of knowing what more improvement he might find.

Gh says:
The handicapper suggests SAOV needs to improve around two-stone in seven weeks, if he is to go close in the Champion Hurdle. Whilst it's not impossible, it does seem unlikely.
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That's a worst-case scenario. It assumes 149 is SOAV's true merit. If I believed that, I wouldn't be touching him with the proverbial for the Betfair let alone the big one. If I believe he will win the Betfair - and I do unless he meets unsuitable ground or some other misfortune - then he will be at the very least a 157 horse. If I thought he was a 157 horse I wouldn't have backed him for the Champion Hurdle.

I'm not saying - and haven't said - there is any evidence there in the form book that he is as good as I think.

It's where visual impression and interpretation of that impression come into play. I backed him for the big one back in November only knowing how good I think HF, Jezki and The New One are. I believed at that stage, half a season before Cheltenham, that if I was right about how much SOAV had in hand at Ascot, then he might only need to find about 7lbs to be at their level. Any mor improvement than that and he was a very possible winner. It was before I saw Faugheen, which believe will win unless some kind of misfortune befalls him.
 
You certainly have cleared things up there, DO. Baradari could easily be a 150 horse by the end of the season, I don't think that proves much in terms of how good SOAV is, but nevertheless...it could all be worse. Good luck with SOAV in any case.
 
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149 is not a worst-case scenario....because the handicapper might have over-estimated him.

I get your argument DO, and you did put-up SOAV at the outset of the season. And as you have stated above, you are basically backing him on a hunch for the CH - the hunch being that you're right about how much improvement he will find on better ground. Better that you'd said that, than draw the tenuous line through Baradari that you did beforehand.

I also disagree with your flatline assertion that all horses needed to be a goodly lump ahead of the handicapper, to win a competitive handicap. They can win just as easy if conditions are more in their favour than others, or if others run below form. It certainly does not follow that SOAV needs to run a minimum 157 to win the Betfair. He might run to that level....indeed he might exceed that level......but equally, he could run to 155 (or below) and still win it, depending on what everything else in the race does. You put broadly the same argument forward during the discussions on MTOY's Betfair Hurdle, and I still don't agree with it.
 
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Obviously we do.

I just think a more subtle approach is required than "This Grade of race requires the winner to run to xxx mark". It's all shades of grey, rather than black-and-white.

Edit: I should add that I'm not suggesting that my way is right, and your way is wrong. They're probably both wrong! :lol:
 
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From the RP website, Tanlic will get a hard on about Mullins view on Arctic Fire but the more interesting part is the comments from Mullins and Walsh about Faugheens price and The Fly's relative to Faugheen's. The Fly must be some work horse and must be as good as ever because to read Ruby's comments I wouldn't be surprised if he rode the Fly....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...1808530/latest/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
 
I dont think it matters and they are both top class. I'd love to know which one Townend would pick given the choice. An inquisitive hack will hopefully ask once Walsh has chosen.

Walsh is quite loyal to certain horses and it wouldn't surprise me if he rode the Fly. His comments suggest he's not chosen Faugheen yet anyway....
 
Aragorn said:
From the RP website, Tanlic will get a hard on about Mullins view on Arctic Fire but the more interesting part is the comments from Mullins and Walsh about Faugheens price and The Fly's relative to Faugheen's. The Fly must be some work horse and must be as good as ever because to read Ruby's comments I wouldn't be surprised if he rode the Fly....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...1808530/latest/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
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Mullins is just another prick who reads my posts and thinks "That's a good idea I'll say that" :lol:

He reckons he can't understand Faugheen's price? someone should tell him that's what happens when you put your hand in the Mullins treasure chest and put half the contents on the horse :cool:

Now we have Ruby saying he reckons Hurricane Fly is a lively outsider......That's Irish for.I'll be riding Faugheen.

In truth he thinks Faugheen is so fast he could ride him run back to the start and ride Hurricane Fly and finish 3rd on him in the same race.

11/10? he should be 1/5 and Walsh and Mullins know it.
 
Sunday sees the last piece of the puzzle put in place as far as the leading contenders go.

It really should be a ding dong battle.

Unless Jessica Harrington has been keeping Jezki in his box for the last few weeks he should strip the fittest he has been all season.

I see no reason why he won't be in the same form that seen him beat Hurricane Fly pointless in the Racing Post. All this talk about him being a better horse in the Spring is bollox. He may well have been trained for the day last season but if they are doing that this season they are hiding it well. If they can't beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday Jezki will be winning nothing at Cheltenham

I have sever doubts about Hurricane Fly's well being that day. I still think he's past his best but he's in much better form than he was in the Champion Hurdle last season The race fell apart when Our Conor came down and the New one was hampered yet he couldn't get a blow in then followed that by the weakest performace I have ever seen from him.

The very fact MTOY was able to finish 2nd after pulling like a train has got to make you think. AP was amazed he could still come back at Jezki and said he must be some horse to do that. I tend to think the way the race turned out there was nothing amazing about it.

The New One who race after race has shown just how long he can take to get into top gear. Our Conor has sadly fallen Hurricane Fly has run like he's some kind of middle of the road animal and MTOY used so much energy on the way round he shouldn't even have been able to beat a tortoise up the hill. The fact he was able to give Jezki a fright and almost beat him tells me we saw one very ordinary Champion Hurdle last year.

Over and above that what we are seeing in Ireland is an old past his best Hurricane Fly ruling the roost and in the UK Faugheen picking up a couple of nice prizes while Nigel Twiston-Davies is very content with his large slice of the cake which everyone is having a bite of.

You can bet your backside each trainer knew where the other one was going before they actually went there.

A very nice bat of highway robbery, leaving racing fans with no competitive trials, just Hurricane Fly continuously kicking Jezki's ass and he's supposed to be the Champion.

If Jezki can not beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday the Champion Hurdle is over before it starts and unless Faugheen leaves one of his legs at home he'll win the Champion Hurdle doing hand stands.

Anymore questions?:)
 
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"If Jezki can not beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday the Champion Hurdle is over before it starts"

Irish Champion Hurdle 2014

HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Hurricane Fly (IRE) 4/7F 10 11-10 W P Mullins 175 * * »
R Walsh

Settled behind leader in 2nd, got in close 2nd, closed into straight and led narrowly before last where slight mistake and headed briefly, rallied well run-in to regain advantage far side and stayed on well to extend advantage towards finish (op 8/15 tchd 1/2)


« 2 1½ Our Conor (IRE) 5/1 5 11-8 D T Hughes 161 * * »
Danny Mullins

Held up in 3rd, headway going well from 2 out to challenge, led briefly from last, soon headed under pressure and kept on well towards finish without matching winner (op 9/2)


« 3 1¼ Captain Cee Bee (IRE) 50/1 13 11-10 Edward P Harty 149 * * »
Mark Walsh

Led, reduced advantage before 4th, ridden and strongly pressed between last 2, headed narrowly before last, no impression on leaders in 3rd run-in, kept on well towards finish to hold 3rd (op 66/1)


« 4 ½ Jezki (IRE) 3/1 6 11-10 Mrs John Harrington 166 * * »
A P McCoy

Settled in rear of quartet, took keen hold, not fluent 5th, took closer order behind leaders from 2 out where pushed along, closed on outer and ridden before last, no impression on leaders run-in, kept on same pace (op 100/30)




6 weeks later

Champion Hurdle 2014

« 1 Jezki (IRE) 9/1 6 11-10 h1 Mrs John Harrington 165 * * »
Barry Geraghty

Took keen hold, tracked leaders, not fluent 4 out, slight lead 2 out, edged left and ridden approaching last, stayed on well under pressure run-in, all out (op 17/2 tchd 10/1)


« 2 nk My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 3/1 7 11-10 Nicky Henderson 167 * * »
A P McCoy

Took strong hold, tracked leaders, not fluent 4 out, tracked leaders 2 out, chased winner last, strong run under pressure run-in, finished well, just failed (tchd 10/3)


« 3 2½ The New One (IRE) 100/30 6 11-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 167 * * »
Sam Twiston-Davies

Tracking leaders when badly hampered and dropped to 7th 3rd, effort to close after 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out and one pace, rallied under pressure approaching last, stayed on well for 3rd final 50yds, closing on leading duo but always held (tchd 3/1)


« 4 2¼ Hurricane Fly (IRE) 11/4F 10 11-10 W P Mullins 173 * * »
R Walsh

Not fluent 1st, tracking leaders when left in close 2nd 3rd, strong challenge 2 out, stayed upsides until edged left and no extra into 3rd approaching last, outpaced into 4th final 50yds (op 3/1)
 
wilsonl said:
"If Jezki can not beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday the Champion Hurdle is over before it starts"

Irish Champion Hurdle 2014

HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 Hurricane Fly (IRE) 4/7F 10 11-10 W P Mullins 175 * * »
R Walsh

Settled behind leader in 2nd, got in close 2nd, closed into straight and led narrowly before last where slight mistake and headed briefly, rallied well run-in to regain advantage far side and stayed on well to extend advantage towards finish (op 8/15 tchd 1/2)


« 2 1½ Our Conor (IRE) 5/1 5 11-8 D T Hughes 161 * * »
Danny Mullins

Held up in 3rd, headway going well from 2 out to challenge, led briefly from last, soon headed under pressure and kept on well towards finish without matching winner (op 9/2)


« 3 1¼ Captain Cee Bee (IRE) 50/1 13 11-10 Edward P Harty 149 * * »
Mark Walsh

Led, reduced advantage before 4th, ridden and strongly pressed between last 2, headed narrowly before last, no impression on leaders in 3rd run-in, kept on well towards finish to hold 3rd (op 66/1)


« 4 ½ Jezki (IRE) 3/1 6 11-10 Mrs John Harrington 166 * * »
A P McCoy

Settled in rear of quartet, took keen hold, not fluent 5th, took closer order behind leaders from 2 out where pushed along, closed on outer and ridden before last, no impression on leaders run-in, kept on same pace (op 100/30)




6 weeks later

Champion Hurdle 2014

« 1 Jezki (IRE) 9/1 6 11-10 h1 Mrs John Harrington 165 * * »
Barry Geraghty

Took keen hold, tracked leaders, not fluent 4 out, slight lead 2 out, edged left and ridden approaching last, stayed on well under pressure run-in, all out (op 17/2 tchd 10/1)


« 2 nk My Tent Or Yours (IRE) 3/1 7 11-10 Nicky Henderson 167 * * »
A P McCoy

Took strong hold, tracked leaders, not fluent 4 out, tracked leaders 2 out, chased winner last, strong run under pressure run-in, finished well, just failed (tchd 10/3)


« 3 2½ The New One (IRE) 100/30 6 11-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies 167 * * »
Sam Twiston-Davies

Tracking leaders when badly hampered and dropped to 7th 3rd, effort to close after 3 out, ridden approaching 2 out and one pace, rallied under pressure approaching last, stayed on well for 3rd final 50yds, closing on leading duo but always held (tchd 3/1)


« 4 2¼ Hurricane Fly (IRE) 11/4F 10 11-10 W P Mullins 173 * * »
R Walsh

Not fluent 1st, tracking leaders when left in close 2nd 3rd, strong challenge 2 out, stayed upsides until edged left and no extra into 3rd approaching last, outpaced into 4th final 50yds (op 3/1)
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All down to the jockey. BG wont get the ride this year will he?
 
Wilson I know you are trying to make a point but you assume Jezki improved and don't make any allowances for the fact Hurricane Fly ran like ahorse who was over the top.

If something looks too good to be true it usually isn't and there's no way on this planet would Jezki be such a good horse he could turn form round 7 lengths with one of the best hurdlers seen in years without something being amiss.

If he was that good he'd have improved enough to have kicked Hurricane Fly aside and be unbeaten this season like a good champion.

If you believe Hurricane Fly is as good as ever then there's a chance for Jezki but I don't see one single person who gives him a a cat in hells chance despite the fact he has stuffed Jezki twice and will likely do the same on Sunday.

The only way Jezki can win at the Festival is if my consultant gives him a double dose of Viagra and he spots a filly in yonder field beyond the winning post :lol:

Now about next years Champion Hurdle.......Peace and Co......I'll get to the later I'm going to the pub :cool:
 
Jezki is simply a better horse come the spring and it's fairly clear that Jessie trains him for that time of year so I'd read nothing in to the fact that he once again has been beaten up in Ireland over the winter.

Quite whether he's good enough to beat Faugheen is a completely different matter but I'd read nothing into the fact that he could lose again on Sunday.

Fist - I have a question for you too. What was your first bet in this forum's Cheltenham Ante Post thread (at 5/1) ? ;)
 
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