Champion Hurdle how will it be run?

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wilhelm

At the Start
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Will apples jade go off in front? I know BD is a bridle horse. How will Laurina be raced?Some race for inrunning purposes.
 
I don't know how she'll be ridden next week but the only time she's made the running in her career to date was at Sandown in a two-horse race.
 
Global Citizen leads for a mile
Then Apples Jade 2nd takes it up
Buv sits 3rd
Laurina 4th behind him

Buv skins them all after rounding the bend and stays on to win by 2L


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Apple's Jade is going to have to make it or be right up there from the start but you need only watch her last race to realize this is no Champion Hurdle horse. She has been flattered no end by beating horses totally out of form
Sh'ell either be in the lead or take it up 4 out but by 3 out the pack will be all around her and by 2 out the writing on the wall and she will fall way from there on in

Buvi and Laurina will be cruising and Brain Power(he's in fantstic form) will be clicking at their heels as they go towards the last.........oh **** battery just went dead on my crystal Ball..you can watch the rest on Tuesday :lol:
 
If everyone keeps saying that Sharjah is the forgotten horse in the race, can he be forgotten. It is not an unreasonable position to take that he would have as much chance as Bedrock in the race, and is priced accordingly. He shouldnt get near the top two in the market - I dread to think how far behind he would have been at the Dublin Racing FEstival trying to keep tabs on AJ, and you'd think that Ruby would be on him if he was ahead of Laurina in WPM's pecking order.
 
wilhelm said:
Will apples jade go off in front? I know BD is a bridle horse. How will Laurina be raced?Some race for inrunning purposes.
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Buveur D’Air is no bridle horse.Just take a look
at last years champion hurdle.Sick as two small hospitals and the worst going stick reading on any champion hurdle ran that I can find and he was headed by melon on the run in. Still battled back to win it because he wanted it. He’s got guts. Bridle horses don’t win Champion Hurdles. Look at Harchibald.

He’s plenty of stamina in there too. He’s a half brother to Punchestowns so he’ll be finding up that hill if he needs to.

There’s a perception out there that Apples Jade will make it a test of stamina. Brilliant, bring it on. Why do you think they sent out Charli Parcs like a hare on Coke last year. Buveur D’Air has plenty of stamina, the one time he stepped up past 2miles he easily won an Aintree Hurdle.

The weapon in the champs armor is that devastating turn of foot off a true gallop. He just used that too early in the xmas hurdle to get back into the race after the mistake 3 out. His stride sustain pattern graph on the other thread make that glaringly obvious. Apples Jade doesn’t quicken, she just sustains, freakishly mind you, her stride at the same pace. But Buveur D’Air can clearly operate at that pace and then quicken. Laurina is the unknown but she looks like she’ll sustain and lose too much ground in the air against proper 2m hurdlers.

Ye’ll all be kicking yourselves after this. 2/1 on a dual champion hurdle.


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No question mark over stamina for me. I can see Kennedy doing the clock in his head approach and expect AJ at the top of the hill to have a 3/4 tank left. Raise gears coming down the hill and go for home all guns blazing from the second last. BDA I'd expect to be 3/4l or 1l down turning in, and make his effort. Whether he gets passed, I doubt. I think AJ wins going away (2l) up the hill. Whatever about BDA staying, the quicker they go, the better for AJ. Laurina will travel, and hope to go when the jets are applied, but not have the toe of the front two.
 
That is the beauty here; three top horses with no connecting line of form.
Add in Brain Power/Sharjah/ Verdana with enough Grade 1 form to give them a squeak .
It will depend on how soft the going is; this could be the race of ages if all the pieces fit.
One thing for sure ; if Buveur beats these there will be no crapping his credentials.
 
This devastating turn of foot is imaginary, and I cant think of any evidence of it. In BDA's best races, he hasnt shown it.
 
Buveur D’Air has literally been operating at 80% fitness all season. Henderson peaks them for March. The man knows better than anyone how to train Champion Hurdlers. He’s already trained a 3 time winner of the race.

After Newcastle they only schooled him once before Kempton. He’s already had three schools since Sandown. Apples Jade jumps out right and changed leads 10+ times for no apparent reason at Leopardstown. That’ll cost her. Laurina jumps too big. That’ll cost her.


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If Mullins, Elliot or Henderson have the best horse, they will win 99% of the races. AJ, on this years performances, wins the last two champion hurdles. The amnesia of Kempton and the proximity of BDA to Verdana Blue, Melon and Mick Jazz is endearing. Even if Henderson has the best horse in his care, he has to give 7lbs to a mare who has performed better this year. Henderson was so adept at spotting these champion hurdlers that he sends them novice chasing and only changes after his better options get injured.
 
I don’t know. Apples Jade has never raced against a proper 2miler. You can’t bring melon into it because he’s miles away from last years top form or the Supreme 2nd. She beat Supasunday last time out who realistically any proper 2miler would do similar to.

Supasunday has won two top 2 mile contests, all out to beat Faugheen at the inaugural Dublin Racing festival and then at Punchestown because Melon & Samcro decided to try their synchronised swimming routine.

It’s well documented how sick BVD was after last years champion so the proximity of Mick Jazz doesn’t bother me. Elliott was of the same opinion and bullishly brought Samcro across only to be handed his arse by a 75% fit BVD.

You’ll see a complete different horse next Tuesday.


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HawkWing said:
If Mullins, Elliot or Henderson have the best horse, they will win 99% of the races. AJ, on this years performances, wins the last two champion hurdles. The amnesia of Kempton and the proximity of BDA to Verdana Blue, Melon and Mick Jazz is endearing. Even if Henderson has the best horse in his care, he has to give 7lbs to a mare who has performed better this year. Henderson was so adept at spotting these champion hurdlers that he sends them novice chasing and only changes after his better options get injured.
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Exactly, go back through the threads on that race and you’ll see where he was touted as the wrong fav. He was a stayer and most here predicted he’d fall in a hole coming down the hill.

Don’t forget Apples Jade was beaten into 2nd by the 145 rated Midnight Tour at last years festival.


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There is nothing to be gained by comparing BVD worst form vs AJs best or vice versa. Pointless game. I don't think anyone has suggested that Melon ran to similar form in Cheltenham and leopardstown but the pont is that BVA has never had to face as good a horse as AJ. Being a dual champ hurdler beating that lot is almost cheating. I don't think BVD, at his best, would have got within 6l of AJ at leopardstown and it's a question of whether it can be repeated.
 
HawkWing said:
There is nothing to be gained by comparing BVD worst form vs AJs best or vice versa. Pointless game. I don't think anyone has suggested that Melon ran to similar form in Cheltenham and leopardstown but the pont is that BVA has never had to face as good a horse as AJ. Being a dual champ hurdler beating that lot is almost cheating. I don't think BVD, at his best, would have got within 6l of AJ at leopardstown and it's a question of whether it can be repeated.
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#Rixies Ratings. You might trust them...


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Loving this debate.

Keep it going, guys!

I'm a huge AJ fan and was on to her sectionals (randy bastert that I am) straight after her last win but KA's enthusiasm for BDA is infectious and his mate's stride and pace analysis I find very interesting from a geeky (me) perspective.

I don't think BDA could have done to that field what AJ did but whether she can do it again at Cheltenham I don't know.

But remember she's really only come right again this season since her juvy days.
 
AJ likely to need to do it from the front. They've already said Global Citizen won't take them on and will be ridden to pick up any pieces. Gordon may keep Farclas in to give her a lead for the first mile and half I suppose.
 
...he was headed by melon on the run in. Still battled back to win it because he wanted it.
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Melon is soft, and Verdana Blue succeeded where Melon did not.

Buveur is not worthy to join the ranks of triple champion hurdle winners, he wouldn't be close to them. The fact he's even a double winner overstates his level.
 
In the words of Ruby Walsh. You get lucky once. You don’t get lucky in a Champion Hurdle twice.


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This is a proper Champion Hurdle. I'd fall down on the side of Buveur D'air though.

She can only beat what's in front of her, but I'm not sure Apples Jade stuffing Supersundae over 2 miles having it her own way is all that. Buveur D'air is in a different league to Supersundae over two miles. She also has it to prove at Cheltenham as well. I know there were excuses for her last year, but there were for Buveur D'air too. The difference was he was still able to win a Champion Hurdle whereas Apples Jade was turned over in the Mares. I accept she's a better horse this year, but I expect Buveur D'air to be too, and he's the one that's been here and done it twice before. I genuinely think a fast run race, which it's sure to be, will see her set it up for Buveur D'air to collar her up the hill.

I genuinely don't know what to make of Laurina. This rain will help her, but I just can't get any kind of handle on how good she is. I can't fully discount her winning, but there are two reasons I can't back her. She doesn't to my eye jump well enough to win a Champion Hurdle, and I'm fairly sure it's Jared Sullivan that wants her here instead of the Mares and not Willie.
 
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