Champion Hurdle sectional comparisons

EC1

EC1

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anorak time Clive..beware;)

I've not put this in the Road thread because I would like to add to this to do other comparisons in future.

This year we have the ...who was the better CH winner argument, Binocular or Hurricaine Fly. It's fair to say that both horses were at the peak of their power on those days when they won.

The conclusion surprised me quite a bit.

Both days are very similar ground conditions..if anyone can show different i'm happy to adjust the times..but the other times on the cards both days point to very similar conditions.

I've timed each horse from when they jump the first hurdle...this gives a far better clue to real times both ran..for example...even though it only takes about 7 seconds to reach the first hurdle..the official start times can occur without a horse actually moving..which is useless for this sort of comparison....timing from the tape rising gives very innaccurate results

the overall times both ran from reaching that first hurdle also point to the ground being similar in that Binoculars race was faster early and the overall time is also faster for him..that is at odds with the official overall times due to them starting the timer before horses have started racing.

I've done these on Sony vegas software which allows freezing the picture at the exact point when they jump each hurdle..and the timer accurate to 100th of a second...far better than timing with a stop watch....p1ss off taking the p1ss Clive:lol:

These are the times for both horses from when they jump the first hurdle..not the leaders etc.

Binocular
3rd hurdle: 83.19
5th hurdle 128.26
7th hurdle 182.04
finish 220.17

Hurricaine Fly
3rd hurdle: 87.07
5th hurdle 132.06
7th hurdle 184.89
finish 223.00

The key point here is that Binocular used up far more energy earlier than HF did...which is fair enough..they went a faster pace.

The telling point is that from the 2nd last to the finish ..where both horses are going to be racing at their near maximum effort...you would expect HF to run it faster than Binocular..HF had saved more energy earlier by going slower than Binocular...the time for each horse from the 2nd last to the finish is:

Binocular = 38.13
Hurricaine Fly = 38.11

a knats whisker..when it should have been far faster by HF

so even though HF had run 2.8 seconds slower than B up to 2 out..which is a decent amount of petrol saved...he hasn't run fast enough to the finish to show he is better than B...in fact had B saved that 2.8 seconds himself he surely would have run faster...the faster you go early the slower you finish etc.

the fact that B has run near on the same time from two out ...even though he used far more energy early than HF...would suggest that on those respective days..Binocular would have beaten HF.

the obvious question now is..is Binocular in that sort of form???...and will any HF followers remotely believe any of this :)

it really surprised me



just to add

the time for each horse from the last hurdle to the finish

Binocular = 13.09
Hurricaine Fly = 13.03
 
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If Mullins is to be believed, Hurricane Fly used-up a ton of energy in the first half of the Champion Hurdle, and Walsh says he had some troubke getting him to settle. Despite this, he cruised to take issue going to the last, and was going away again at the end. A stronger pace will suit him better, though I don't that the doubters will point to this in an attempt to bolster their argument.

I doubt many will change their view in light of this analysis, and I think yohr numbers of academic interest only. The battles lines are drawn, and there's little more to be said before the race itself, imo.
 
grasshopper,
EC produces some great analysis and you counter it by coming out with what a jockey said??!!
 
Grasshopper said:
If Mullins is to be believed, Hurricane Fly used-up a ton of energy in the first half of the Champion Hurdle, and Walsh says he had some troubke getting him to settle. Despite this, he cruised to take issue going to the last, and was going away again at the end. A stronger pace will suit him better, though I don't that the doubters will point to this in an attempt to bolster their argument.

I doubt many will change their view in light of this analysis, and I think yohr numbers of academic interest only. The battles lines are drawn, and there's little more to be said before the race itself, imo.
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if he did waste energy early then it would explain the relatively slow finish time definately..obviously that can't be measured

but if B had run in HF's Champion in the same form he won his champion he would have won it looking at those times..due to that energy HF wasted

which in my mind sorts out which CH win was the best CH win..it was B's.
 
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I love it when people won't put their bias and prejudices aside even in the face of analysis like this. Good stuff EC.
 
If A beats B off level weights then A is better than B. We will see next week if A is better than B.
 
OTB

it tells you so much more than that..which is why its worth breaking races down like this

like i said..its not the conclusion i expected....i expect a cheque from Steve M as well;)
 
OTB said:
If A beats B off level weights then A is better than B. We will see next week if A is better than B.
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which shows you haven't read it properly

i believe HF is the better horse..but putting B's best run into HF's CH would have seen B win on that occasion
 
granger said:
To some people times and ratings are codswollop. God gave me 2 eyes and a mind, they are the best tools of my trade
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even with the best eyes in the world you couldn't have known that both horses ran the same finishing time from two out and one out...but with B running faster earlier making his the better effort
 
EC1 said:
which shows you haven't read it properly

i believe HF is the better horse..but putting B's best run into HF's CH would have seen B win on that occasion
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This is based on the presumption that Hurricane could have done no more with a horse in front of him and both horses times were achieved on a level playing field and both horses maximised their capability on their respective occasions?

It cannot be as simple as comparing like for like
 
if HF runs like he did at Punchestown i don't see any horse getting near him..that race is one of best displays i've ever seen over hurdles from the last 40 years
 
Great analysis EC1. HF has the more recent form which has to count for something. Has B run even close to that run in the last 24 months? I doubt it.

B's CH win was spectacular but had faded in my mind over time. This puts it back in perspective. Cannot have him winning next Tuesday if HF stands up though.
 
Hamm said:
grasshopper,
EC produces some great analysis and you counter it by coming out with what a jockey said??!!
Click to expand...

No.

I countered it by stressing that I was quite satisfied that a stronger pace would suit Hurricane Fly even better; the point of EC's analysis being as to question - in the simplest terms - whether HF could 'go the gallop'.

His analysis is undoubtedly good, but the question we must always ask ourselves is: is it conclusive analysis? ;)

:D
 
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EC1, that is some excellent analysis.

In response, and as a backer of both horses (no agenda), I would say that there is a fair argument that Hurricane Fly used up as much energy by pulling hard as he would have done had he travelled at a faster pace. I think, though cannot be certain obviously, that Hurricane Fly would have had a similar amount of 'energy' left at the finish if the pace had been stronger because he wouldn't have pulled so hard.

I was amazed that he won the race as he did having pulled as he did. However, the interesting point is that the Champion Hurdle is not the foregone conclusion that some have suggested.

Will Hurricane Fly win? Probably. Should he be shorter than say Sizing Europe, for example? Not for me.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Great analysis EC1. HF has the more recent form which has to count for something. Has B run even close to that run in the last 24 months? I doubt it.

B's CH win was spectacular but had faded in my mind over time. This puts it back in perspective. Cannot have him winning next Tuesday if HF stands up though.
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thats the whole point though..can B ever be that horse that won the CH again?

i certainly respect his win more after doing this research..it also explains why HF had difficulty putting Peddlers away.

If HF did waste energy through pulling..then thats one explanation..or did the hill not suit him as much as the flat tracks..could be another one
 
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A horse pulling his head means he's wasted energy.

Gotta laugh at this one! one of the most pathetic excuses I've ever seen that a horse loses energy by shaking their head to left or right.

A horse loses more energy shitting in the pre parade ring.

By the way sectional times are pointless and before you get me started I'd like to remind you that hurdles and rails move on a frequent basis which gives no statistical significance to your findings at all
 
Zenyatta said:
EC1, that is some excellent analysis.

In response, and as a backer of both horses (no agenda), I would say that there is a fair argument that Hurricane Fly used up as much energy by pulling hard as he would have done had he travelled at a faster pace. I think, though cannot be certain obviously, that Hurricane Fly would have had a similar amount of 'energy' left at the finish if the pace had been stronger because he wouldn't have pulled so hard.

I was amazed that he won the race as he did having pulled as he did. However, the interesting point is that the Champion Hurdle is not the foregone conclusion that some have suggested.

Will Hurricane Fly win? Probably. Should he be shorter than say Sizing Europe, for example? Not for me.
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i think thats fair comment..pulling usually does waste more energy than going a stride faster i would think..the pulling scenario looks favourite to me

The only conclusion to be drawn is that if B had run in HF's CH and he had run as he did when winning the year before..i don't think HF would have beat him..due to that early lost energy

the only problem is..that horse has only turned up once that we know..whereas HF is turning in top performances whenever he runs..and still wins his champion when wasting valuable early energy
 
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