Champion Hurdle sectional comparisons

Quote:
Originally Posted by clivex
Believe it or not Ec i found that interesting

But you must get out more
thats what i keep telling nurse
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Probabtion officer more like

bit like Ian Brady but then he said "go out for the day? with all those kids under your feet?!"
 
clivex said:
Probabtion officer more like

bit like Ian Brady but then he said "go out for the day? with all those kids under your feet?!"
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That's not going to last long :lol:lol:

All that pulling does waste a lot of energy.....Del Boy finds it difficult to get out of bed most days :rolleyes:
 
EC1 said:
...Binocular would have beaten HF.

the obvious question now is..is Binocular in that sort of form???...and will any HF followers remotely believe any of this :)

it really surprised me
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...a nice contribution to the debate... I'm pleased with your conversion, but you only had to ask.;):D

...I take it this isn't a ploy to get HF out to his correct price.
 
SteveM said:
...a nice contribution to the debate... I'm pleased with your conversion, but you only had to ask.;):D

...I take it this isn't a ploy to get HF out to his correct price.
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i'm not converted though Steve...i just thought the two CH debate was worth looking at..if you think i'm saying B is a better horse than HF then you misreading it.

if HF does run free early this year he could be vulnerable as he actually was last year..but even when he had wasted that energy he still won ..had he not he would have beaten Peddlers by 8 or 9 lengths imo...IF binocular is as he was 2 years ago..AND HF wastes energy..then it will make for an interesting race. But thats two big IF's..basically for B to beat HF ..HF would have to hand it to him by racing too keenly in the same way as he did last year...and B would have to be in that same form even then to beat him

basically..HL is the correct price imo..until you see how he handles the first few hurdles..then that could alter
 
I found your thread facinating EC1 thanks for taking the time

I was led to believe Binocular was fractionally (1 second) faster than Hurricane Fly from the second last.


I always believe what people tell me:)

So I have just ran the two vidoes side by side twice swapping them around incase one player runs faster than the other.

Not an exact science by any manner of means but I found Binocular was slightly faster but I it was very close.

What I would say, is every race was run faster on Hurricane Fly's day, bar the last, so the going may just have been a bit faster the day he won.

Close but on the basis of the ground differnce is it ok with you if I declare Binocular the winner? .....Please!!! :)


At least if Hurricane Fly kicks him into touch he'll have won something if you agree :D
 
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you may be right re the ground Tanlic..i thought it pretty close as not to mess with the times too much...i think its hard to decide how much faster so thought best leave it..

the timings should be very accurate as they are frame by frame timings once in the Vegas software..i were quite pleased with mesen thinking of using it because using a stop watch is open to a fair bit of error

i might have a look at AlFerofs race as well..that could be an interesting comparison..[thanks Warbler for suggesting it]
 
timings for each hurdle

Binocular
1st hurdle: 0.00
2nd hurdle: 43.12
3rd hurdle: 83.19
4th hurdle: 108.09
5th hurdle: 128.26
6th hurdle: 164.11
7th hurdle 182.04
8th hurdle 207.08
finish: 220.17

Hurricane Fly
1st hurdle 0.00
2nd hurdle:43.95
3rd hurdle: 87.07
4th hurdle:112.01
5th hurdle 132.06
6th hurdle: 167.08
7th hurdle: 184.89
8th hurdle:209.97
finish 223.00
 
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EC1 said:
you may be right re the ground Tanlic..i thought it pretty close as not to mess with the times too much...i think its hard to decide how much faster so thought best leave it..

the timings should be very accurate as they are frame by frame timings once in the Vegas software..i were quite pleased with mesen thinking of using it because using a stop watch is open to a fair bit of error

i might have a look at AlFerofs race as well..that could be an interesting comparison..[thanks Warbler for suggesting it]
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Isn't this the fundamental flaw with time analysis used in isolation though, EC1?

Ground conditions are so generic that you're effectively guessing just as much as the best yardstick or collateral-from student, because times are not always necessarily compared exactly like-for-like. And, to me at least, time arguments are inconsistently applied too. In one race, the time will be used to uphold a given going report, and in another the going will be challenged on time grounds.

I don't have the energy or the patience (or probably the gumption) to get into an esoteric discUssion around the value of the clock in form assessment. Whatever works for someone, works for them, as far as I'm concerned. In my view, time-handicapping is just as flawed as lbs-per-length handicapping, or any other kind of handicapping for that matter. There are too many contributing factors for one element to prove the key to solving the puzzle. It is more akin to breaking a code, than unpicking a lock......and that's a big part of it's attraction for most of us, I suspect.

:cool:
 
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Euronymous said:
It could equally be said that the clip they went in Binocular's year would have suited HF very nicely.
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which just shows how a race can go one way or the other on the day..there is no ultimate outcome to any race..just a series of events that suits some horses better than others..then throw in how good each horse is..and you have a grand puzzle.
 
Euronymous said:
It could equally be said that the clip they went in Binocular's year would have suited HF very nicely.
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Given their respective profiles, it's a fair bet HF would benefit more from a searching pace than Binocular, so judging him solely off a pace 2 secs slower than the Supreme wouldn't nearly do him justice.
Imo, HF is probably the better horse, but with potentially the same pacemaker (Overturn) setting the same steadyish pace this year, the cards might just fall the way of Binocular.
 
McCain has said Overturn will be 'more prominent' this year. I'm not sure what that means, seeing as he led to the 4th last year, but I presume he means they're planning to go faster?
 
re the going Grass..if it was faster when HF ran..as Tanlic and a few others believe..then that makes HF's last sectional even worse when compared to Binocular..

on slower ground Binocular has run to two out faster and then ran the same time to the line as HF

so not adjusting the ground was in HF's favour

i'm going to look at Al Ferof's race on the same day..taht will remove any ground issues
 
EC1 said:
re the going Grass..if it was faster when HF ran..as Tanlic and a few others believe..then that makes HF's last sectional even worse when compared to Binocular..

on slower ground Binocular has run to two out faster and then ran the same time to the line as HF

so not adjusting the ground was in HF's favour

i'm going to look at Al Ferof's race on the same day..taht will remove any ground issues
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I like your profound thinking on the race, its always good to check every avenue to gain an edge.

after watching BINOCULAR beat ROCK ON RUBY which was a very gritty performance, then his demolition of CELESTAIL HALO who in fairness already had a few tough races prior. Still he looks as good as his champion hurdle win a couple of years back and his fluent jumping could be the determining factor.

Obviously the HURRICANE looks to be better than he was last year and is a worthy favourite, but based on champion hurdle performances, I was more impressed with BINOCULARS win.

Should be a good battle
 
Hurricane Fly/Al Ferof

1st hurdle 0.00----0.00
2nd hurdle:43.95--43.00
3rd hurdle: 87.07--85.88
4th hurdle:112.01-109.87
5th hurdle:132.06-130.11
6th hurdle:167.08-167.09
7th hurdle:184.89-185.00
8th hurdle:209.97-210.84
finish -----223.00-223.05

very telling..more so than the comparison to Binocular

HF had a very easy time up to the 5th hurdle...the novice was 2 seconds faster most of the way.then HF made up time on Al Ferof..they both met the 6th hurdle at virtually the same time..from there you would expect a Champion hurdler to easily beat the novice..but that hasn't happened..HF would have led to the final flight but the finish of AlFerof would have clawed him back up the hill to be just 0.05 seconds off HF..about a quarter of a length

In fact ..at the last flight HF would have been 5 lengths ahead ...this shows how HF folded late on..and why he didn't beat Peddlers more easily...Al Ferof would have nearly won the CH last year looking at those times
 
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EC1 said:
Hurricane Fly/Al Ferof

1st hurdle 0.00----0.00
2nd hurdle:43.95--43.00
3rd hurdle: 87.07--85.88
4th hurdle:112.01-109.87
5th hurdle:132.06-130.11
6th hurdle:167.08-167.09
7th hurdle:184.89-185.00
8th hurdle:209.97-210.84
finish -----223.00-223.05

very telling..more so than the comparison to Binocular

HF had a very easy time up to the 5th hurdle...the novice was 2 seconds faster most of the way.then HF made up time on Al Ferof..they both met the 6th hurdle at virtually the same time..from there you would expect a Champion hurdler to easily beat the novice..but that hasn't happened..HF would have led to the final flight but the finish of AlFerof would have clawed him back up the hill to be just 0.05 seconds off HF..about a quarter of a length

In fact ..at the last flight HF would have been 5 lengths ahead ...this shows how HF folded late on..and why he didn't beat Peddlers more easily...Al Ferof would have nearly won the CH last year looking at those times
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I ain't buying it, EC1.

Hurricane Fly has been described by people as all-out to beat Peddlers in the last Champion Hurdle. Whilst it's true he was ridden right out, Hurricane Fly asserted readily enough and never really looked in any real danger; running on strongly for pressure and going away again at the line. He had plenty left to give at the end of the Champion Hurdle, and just ran out of road. If Walsh had committed earlier, he would have won further, and in a quicker time.

They can ride Hurricane Fly pretty-much any way they please in the Champion Hurdle. He has too much class and versatility to be getting chinned by any of this lot - Binocular included.
 
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