Champion Hurdle sectional comparisons

Dont forget either that novices have more space when racing compared to experienced horses. Thus there is less interference. AF was not able to go the pace for most of the race so passed tiring horses to win. As for the red and blue % swings, who knows. a geat race in prospect
 
EC1 said:
that aside...its pretty easy to see that with the energy B used up between H2 & H3..and before that...there is no way he should have been able to run a final section nearly on a par with HF..in fact ran both last sections nearly the same...should have been slower by some way[/COLOR]
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The inevitable inference being that Binocular is the better stayer - which flies in the face of all of their form otherwise?
Imo, you're confusing energy reserves with speed, and while HF didn't have the speed to go 5l clear of PC, he certainly didn't look to be running out of energy.
 
The point is that NH horses do not run to sectionals. The pace a jockey goes in a national hunt race is based on the pace of other horses in his race. If they happen to slow down between two fences then he'll just slow down also. Flat racing and Jump racing is apples and oranges.
 
EC1 said:
Code: 
              [COLOR=red][B]Al Ferof[/B][/COLOR]     [COLOR=blue][B]HF[/B][/COLOR]
 
H1 - H2         43.00    43.95 = [B][COLOR=red]+2.2%[/COLOR][/B]
H2 - H3         42.88    43.12 = [COLOR=red][B]+0.6%[/B][/COLOR]
H3 - H4         23.99    24.94 = [B][COLOR=red]+4.0%[/COLOR][/B]
H4 - H5         20.24    20.05 = [COLOR=blue][B]+0.9%[/B][/COLOR]
H5 - H6         36.98    35.02 = [COLOR=blue][B]+5.3%[/B][/COLOR]
H6 - H7         17.91    17.81 = [B][COLOR=blue]+0.6%[/COLOR][/B]
H7 - H8         25.84    25.08 = [B][COLOR=blue]+2.9%[/COLOR][/B]
H8 - FIN        12.21    13.03 = [COLOR=red]+[/COLOR][B][COLOR=red][COLOR=red]6.[/COLOR]7%[/COLOR][/B]

for a novice to go faster early and finish faster than a CH winner has to be unusual..that is a slow finish for the champ for sure
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Qustion. Are those times based on when HF and AF reached each hurdle or when the leader did?
 
OTB said:
The point is that NH horses do not run to sectionals. The pace a jockey goes in a national hunt race is based on the pace of other horses in his race. If they happen to slow down between two fences then he'll just slow down also. Flat racing and Jump racing is apples and oranges.
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Are you therefore suggesting that flat jockeys don't react To other jockeys in their races? Can't agree if you are. Pace affects any race.
 
OTB said:
The point is that NH horses do not run to sectionals. The pace a jockey goes in a national hunt race is based on the pace of other horses in his race. If they happen to slow down between two fences then he'll just slow down also. Flat racing and Jump racing is apples and oranges.
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Good point!! It mus also depend on how each horse is travelling over hurdles/fences and when he was actually popped the question. It could be anywhere between the 3rd last an 50 yds from the line before a horse is in full flight
 
Aragorn said:
Are you therefore suggesting that flat jockeys don't react To other jockeys in their races? Can't agree if you are. Pace affects any race.
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Nope - i'm saying sectionals make sense in flat racing for analysis, but i dont really get the point of them in NH. Times vary massively in a jump race and not just because of going.
 
OTB said:
Nope - i'm saying sectionals make sense in flat racing for analysis, but i dont really get the point of them in NH. Times vary massively in a jump race and not just because of going.
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I'm not seeing your point tbh..if you are comparing like with like..same day races for instance..you can learn a lot and spot things others miss

i'm not advocating trying to do it at every course everday..more dip in when races coincide..and pick a couple out to back in future who have run well.."hidden" from many punters who only watch the race.

you are blanket dismissing something without using your imagination imo

you also suggest that horses have endless energy over the jumps and the tiring effect of pace doesn't affect them..which just isn't logical

its like saying human steeplechase runners are different from flat runners in that strong or weak early pace doesn't affect them..they just keep going regardless because they sometimes slow down between hurdles:confused:
 
EC1 said:
I'm not seeing your point tbh..if you are comparing like with like..same day races for instance..you can learn a lot and spot things others miss

i'm not advocating trying to do it at every course everday..more dip in when races coincide..and pick a couple out to back in future who have run well.."hidden" from many punters who only watch the race.

you are blanket dismissing something without using your imagination imo

you also suggest that horses have endless energy over the jumps and the tiring effect of pace doesn't affect them..which just isn't logical

its like saying human steeplechase runners are different from flat runners in that strong or weak early pace doesn't affect them..they just keep going regardless because they sometimes slow down between hurdles:confused:
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No i'm saying Jump races are run differently. You could run a CH tomorrow with similar horses and the sctionals could be very different again. I dont think its allowed you to rate Horse A vs Horse B especially if they have not ran against each other. In a flat race especially over shorted distances its make a huge amount of sense.
 
OTB said:
No i'm saying Jump races are run differently. You could run a CH tomorrow with similar horses and the sctionals could be very different again. I dont think its allowed you to rate Horse A vs Horse B especially if they have not ran against each other. In a flat race especially over shorted distances its make a huge amount of sense.
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of course the sectionals would be different..you don't use them to predict future sectionals..you use them to see horses that have good sectionals on the day..and hopefully gain from that in the future. if you can do that..then you have an edge over people who think they are shite..which is 99% of punters probably

you aren't thinking about this..you are just blanketdly dismissing something without looking at the edge that can be gained..and the game is all about edge..nothing else..if you want to make money
 
just picked up on the .....run differently bit

i'm just not seeing that..most flat races are run like jumps races..they don't fit a uniform pattern..the pace varies..but that doesn't stop you comparing horses to each other within that race and in another race over same trip on same day.
 
...speaking for myself, I’ve a preference for acute and reflex but try to steer clear of obtuse.
 
I'm going to look at the last 3 champion hurdles at some point this week and see how Rock On Ruby compares re sectionals.

Just to iron out any going discrepencies i've calculated the going corrections for each meeting and there isn't a lot in it...Binoculars a little slower

Code: 
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=4][FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2][B][SIZE=4]2012 [/SIZE][/B]         expected    actual   diff   +/- per fur[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Supreme           232.7     232.7    0.00      0.00[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Arkle             232.8     231.1    1.70     -0.11[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Champion Hurdle   230.8     230.1   -0.70     -0.04[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]3m0.5f Chase      370.8     368.6   -2.20     -0.09[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[SIZE=2]Going Correction = -[B]0.08[/B] per fur [av of 3 best times][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]-----------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=4][FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2][B][SIZE=4]2011 [/SIZE][/B]         expected    actual   diff   +/- per fur[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Supreme           232.7     232.1   -0.60     -0.04[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Arkle             232.8     231.7   -1.12     -0.07[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Champion Hurdle   230.8     233.7    2.91      0.18[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]3m0.5f Chase      370.8     370.0   -0.80     -0.03[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[SIZE=2]Going Correction = -[B]0.05[/B] per fur [av of 3 best times][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2]------------------------------------------------------[/SIZE]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=4][FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2][B][SIZE=4]2010 [/SIZE][/B]         expected    actual   diff   +/- per fur[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Supreme           232.7     236.5    3.82      0.23[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Arkle             232.8     232.6   -0.20     -0.01[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]Champion Hurdle   230.8     231.8    1.00      0.06[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=2]3m0.5f Chase      370.8     370.7   -0.14     -0.01[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[SIZE=2]Going Correction = [B]-0.01[/B] per fur [av of 3 best times][/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=2][B]2010 Champion Hurdle time sped up by 2 seconds as horses[/B][/SIZE]
[SIZE=2][B]didn't move when tape went up ..i did time this..sad i know[/B][/SIZE][/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE][/FONT]
[/SIZE][/FONT]

more later
 
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