Champion Hurdle sectional comparisons

Grasshopper said:
I ain't buying it, EC1.

Hurricane Fly has been described by people as all-out to beat Peddlers in the last Champion Hurdle. Whilst it's true he was ridden right out, Hurricane Fly asserted readily enough and never really looked in any real danger; running on strongly for pressure and going away again at the line. He had plenty left to give at the end of the Champion Hurdle, and just ran out of road. If Walsh had committed earlier, he would have won further, and in a quicker time.

They can ride Hurricane Fly pretty-much any way they please in the Champion Hurdle. He has too much class and versatility to be getting chinned by any of this lot - Binocular included.
Click to expand...

as long as he doesn't waste energy early as he must have done last year..i'm not sure he had as much left as you are saying tbh..peddlers kept him up to his work

Al Ferof's time from the last is really good..he must be of interest to anyone again this year as this course is right up his street
 
EC1 said:
Hurricane Fly/Al Ferof

1st hurdle 0.00----0.00
2nd hurdle:43.95--43.00
3rd hurdle: 87.07--85.88
4th hurdle:112.01-109.87
5th hurdle:132.06-130.11
6th hurdle:167.08-167.09
7th hurdle:184.89-185.00
8th hurdle:209.97-210.84
finish -----223.00-223.05

very telling..more so than the comparison to Binocular

HF had a very easy time up to the 5th hurdle...the novice was 2 seconds faster most of the way.then HF made up time on Al Ferof..they both met the 6th hurdle at virtually the same time..from there you would expect a Champion hurdler to easily beat the novice..but that hasn't happened..HF would have led to the final flight but the finish of AlFerof would have clawed him back up the hill to be just 0.05 seconds off HF..about a quarter of a length

In fact ..at the last flight HF would have been 5 lengths ahead ...this shows how HF folded late on..and why he didn't beat Peddlers more easily...Al Ferof would have nearly won the CH last year looking at those times
Click to expand...

It shows you, the same as GRAND CRUS in the feltham being faster than KAUTO STAR.

As we know both HURRICANE and AL FEROF went fairly easy from the start to the middle of the race, and you would of expected the HURRICANE to be much stronger and faster towards the end of the race, but as your finding suggest thats not the case.

Maybee it was a very poor champion hurdle after all, got a strong feeling the HURRICANE will go down.
 
handsofstone said:
It shows you, the same as GRAND CRUS in the feltham being faster than KAUTO STAR.

As we know both HURRICANE and AL FEROF went fairly easy from the start to the middle of the race, and you would of expected the HURRICANE to be much stronger and faster towards the end of the race, but as your finding suggest thats not the case.

Maybee it was a very poor champion hurdle after all, got a strong feeling the HURRICANE will go down.
Click to expand...

Its only one race though..what chance another slow run CH?.

I think the biggest opponent HF has is the early pace,...if that isn't strong enough he may waste energy...which as the sectionals show will damage him
 
HF didn't 'fold' late on. He produced just what he had to, to win off an early pace that inconvenienced him, and horses that stay 2.5m as well as he may get outsped over 2m, but are highly unlikely to be 'folding'.
 
Last edited:
Good debate.

HF may well improve on last performance, but I'm happy to take him on.

Although HF can only beat what is put in front of him, it's interesting that although he was a regular conqueror of Solwhit in recent years, the latter always made a race of it at some stage, trading in running at 2.3,1.73,1.5,1.2.

Solwhit ran in Binocular's CH win and never got a sniff:

Held up in midfield, close enough after 5th, lost place downhill before 3 out, struggling next, no chance after, plugged on (op 7-1 tchd 8-1). Beaten 18 lths.
Click to expand...

I can't remember any excuse for Solwhit's performance and it is only one run at Cheltenham, but it certainly does no harm to EC's theory.

I still think Zarkandar can find 14lb+ to get into the mix.
 
reet hard said:
HF didn't 'fold' late on. He produced just what he had to, to win off an early pace that inconvenienced him, and horses that stay 2.5m as well as he may get outsped over 2m, but are highly unlikely to be 'folding'.
Click to expand...

a slow early pace hasn't inconvenienced him before though over 2 miles

he "folded" in comparison to novice Al ferof who ran from the last hurdle to the line nearly 5 lengths faster
 
Last edited:
doomster said:
I can't remember any excuse for Solwhit's performance and it is only one run at Cheltenham, but it certainly does no harm to EC's theory.
Click to expand...

Solwhit was doubtful for the race in the lead up, and was reported to be below par during the race as well. I think it is reasonable to assume that he was below his best, certainly under conditions (good ground and 2m).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ra...pion-Hurdle-green-light-recovering-cough.html

However, possible that he just wasn't good enough as well:

Charles Byrnes, trainer of Solwhit who finished sixth in the Champion Hurdle, said: " He blew for only ten minutes after the race. He seemed fine this morning and is on his way home.

"You'd have to think that two miles and the track on pretty good ground might have had as much, if not more, to do with his performance as what happened last week when he coughed and scoped dirty.

"I've always said that on good ground two and a half miles is his ideal trip. He won't be going back to Aintree this year and we will consider Punchestown although he is more likely to get soft ground in France and we might take him there in May."
 
EC1 said:
a slow early pace hasn't inconvenienced him before though over 2m
Click to expand...

And in what way did it inconvenience him last March? Binocular hardly blazed a trail at Punchestown thereafter, and Hurricane Fly came there swinging and put the race to bed in a handful of strides. Pace is immaterial to him.
 
I get sectionals and timings for 5f sprints etc. But i really dont get it for NH. The pace of a NH hunt race totally depends on whoever makes the pace. If they are going slowly Ruby isnt going to let the choke out and go lickity split just to do a fast time. Its about winning the race. If he needs to go faster he will, if he doesnt he'll continue to burn them off after the last fence. Maybe Overturn will go off at 100 mph and we will get a fast time, but HF has proven himself to handle all pace, all ground and all comers. Great analysis but I wouldnt use it in choosing a horse for this race.
 
While the times are interesting and while I wouldn't argue that they indicate there wasn't much between the two, they were ridden entirely diferently.

After Binocular lost the Champion Hurdle 2009 AP said if he'd have gone sooner he'd have won. He put that into practice the following year using Binocular's speed at the top of the hill "race over"

Hurricane Fly on the other hand was ridden to come there at the last and beat whatever happened to be there. In this case it was Peddlers Cross.

As I said /asked in another thread if Binocular had been in that race ridden the same way as he was the previous year what then?

He's obviously a faster horse than Peddler's Cross when he is on song.

I think it's fair to say Hurricane Fly would have to have gone sooner for Ruby to get into the right position at the last.

As he was cantering at the top of the hill I doubt if that would have been much of a problem for Ruby to give him a little squeeze and move that length or 2 closer and he'd probably have done Binocular for toe up the hill like he did Peddlers Cross.

That's the reason IMO Binocular has to go harder and faster than he did in 2010 if he is to hold on up the hill.

Considering AP took a huge pull at the top of the hill before popping the question he might just be able to do that.

However to do that he has to be as good as he was in 2010 and that is the $6 million question.

Hurricane Fly may be the safest bet but on Binocular you are taking one big gamble.

I'm prepared to take the chance because I didn't like the way Hurricane Fly drifted on his return. Willie Mullins was a very worried man before that race and although he was impressive it was a nothing race and we are led to believe his preperation has been far from perfect.

Unless of course 1-run was the plan all along which is perfectly possible as the top 3 hurdle races are yet to come and WM may have decided why risk him and lose out when the big ones comes around.
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
Hurricane Fly may be the safest bet but on Binocular you are taking one big gamble.

I'm prepared to take the chance because I didn't like the way Hurricane Fly drifted on his return. Willie Mullins was a very worried man before that race and although he was impressive it was a nothing race and we are led to believe his preperation has been far from perfect.

Unless of course 1-run was the plan all along which is perfectly possible as the top 3 hurdle races are yet to come and WM may have decided why risk him and lose out when the big ones comes around.
Click to expand...

I would be fairly sure that once Christmas had gone by the plan was to run only once before Cheltenham. What race do you suppose he might have run in in the weeks since the Irish Champion?
 
EC1 said:
timings for each hurdle

Binocular
1st hurdle: 0.00
2nd hurdle: 43.12
3rd hurdle: 83.19
4th hurdle: 108.09
5th hurdle: 128.26
6th hurdle: 164.11
7th hurdle 182.04
8th hurdle 207.08
finish: 220.17

Hurricane Fly
1st hurdle 0.00
2nd hurdle:43.95
3rd hurdle: 87.07
4th hurdle:112.01
5th hurdle 132.06
6th hurdle: 167.08
7th hurdle: 184.89
8th hurdle:209.97
finish 223.00
Click to expand...

Thanks for those EC.

I've converted the 8 individual sectionals (hurdle 1 to hurdle 2, hurdle 2 to hurdle 3 ... hurdle 8 to finish) into percentages of the overall time:

Code: 
[b]Sectional[/b]	[b]Binocular[/b]	[b]Hurricane Fly[/b]	[b]Diff (in terms of Hurricane Fly)[/b]
H1-H2		19.6%		19.7%		[b][color=blue]+0.1%[/color][/b]
H2-H3		18.2%		19.3%		[b][color=blue]+1.1%[/color][/b]
H3-H4		11.3%		11.2%		[b][color=red]-0.1%[/color][/b]
H4-H5		9.2%		9.0%		[b][color=red]-0.2%[/color][/b]
H5-H6		16.3%		15.7%		[b][color=red]-0.6%[/color][/b]
H6-H7		8.1%		8.0%		[b][color=red]-0.2%[/color][/b]
H7-H8		11.4%		11.2%		[b][color=red]-0.1%[/color][/b]
H8-Fin		5.9%		5.8%		[b][color=red]-0.1%[/color][/b]

Immediately, the slower pace between the 2nd and 3rd hurdle of Hurricane Fly's race stands out as the biggest single difference between the two performances. In raw time, it was 3 seconds slower than the same sectional in Binocular's race - there was no other sectional where the difference was more than 1 second.

Isolating the sectionals from Hurdle 3 onwards gives the following:

Code: 
[b]Sectional[/b]	[b]Binocular[/b]	[b]Hurricane Fly[/b]	[b]Diff (in terms of Hurricane Fly)[/b]
H3-H4		18.2%		18.3%		[b][color=blue]+0.2%[/color][/b]
H4-H5		14.7%		14.8%		[b]+0.0%[/b]
H5-H6		26.2%		25.8%		[b][color=red]-0.4%[/color][/b]
H6-H7		13.1%		13.1%		[b]+0.0%[/b]
H7-H8		18.3%		18.5%		[b][color=blue]+0.2%[/color][/b]
H8-Fin		9.6%		9.6%		[b]+0.0%[/b]

Which looks surprisingly similar to me.
 
Grey said:
I would be fairly sure that once Christmas had gone by the plan was to run only once before Cheltenham. What race do you suppose he might have run in in the weeks since the Irish Champion?
Click to expand...

I think you have the wrong end of the stick

People were worried because he hadn't been seen out earlier, but I wasn't.

Last season Willie Mullins had no idea if Hurricane Fly would win the Champion Hurdle so he ran him at every opportunity and picked up some decent prizes. If he had lost the Champion Hurdle at least he had somthing in the bag

Now he knows for sure he's a Champion Hurdle horse my thoughts were why would he follow the same programme and risk injury?

So I suspected WM was limiting his appearances deliberately, have one run before the Champion then possibly go for the Aintree Hurdle and then go to Leopardstown.
 
All we can do is hope both turn up 100% and let them answer the question.

I really hope it's a cracker and has everyone jumping out their seats shouting for one or the other.

I really don't care which wins as long as it's owned by JP McManus :)
 
Last edited:
I think you have the wrong end of the stick
Click to expand...

I don't see how.

You said you were prepared to take a chance and back Binocular because you didn't like the way Hurricane Fly drifted before his last race and that his trainer had been a very worried man, it was a nothing race and his preparation did not look ideal, but maybe the plan all along had been to have just the one run.

I replied by saying that once Christmas had gone past the plan would almost certainly have been to have just one run. I believe the original plan would have been to run both at Christmas if ready and again in the Irish Champion.

Where did I get the wrong end of any stick?
 
sorry..cocked up the post:)

Gareth

using the final time to compare to each section is always going to make it look similar..compare the difference beween the two in each section gives a clearer picture

Code: 
                [COLOR=red][B]Binocular[/B]    [/COLOR][COLOR=blue][B]HF[/B][/COLOR]
 
H1 - H2         43.12       43.95  =  [COLOR=red][B]+1.9%[/B][/COLOR]
H2 - H3         40.07       43.12  =  [COLOR=red][B]+7.6%[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black]H3 - H4         24.90       24.94  =  [/COLOR][COLOR=red][B]+0.2%[/B][/COLOR]
H4 - H5         20.17       20.05  =  [B][COLOR=blue]+0.6%[/COLOR][/B]
[COLOR=black]H5 - H6         35.85       35.02  =  [/COLOR][COLOR=blue][B]+2.3%[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black]H6 - H7         17.93       17.81  =  [/COLOR][COLOR=blue][B]+0.7%[/B][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black]H7 - H8         25.04       25.08  =  [/COLOR][COLOR=red]+[/COLOR][B][COLOR=red]0.[/COLOR][COLOR=red]2%[/COLOR][/B]
[COLOR=black]H8 - FIN        13.09       13.03  =  [/COLOR][COLOR=blue][B]+0.5% [/B][/COLOR]

a rough guide to the best performance could be to add up the superiority %'s...Binocular = 9.9%...HF = 4.1%..this would probably be better if we combined some of the sections to make them more equal in size though

that aside...its pretty easy to see that with the energy B used up between H2 & H3..and before that...there is no way he should have been able to run a final section nearly on a par with HF..in fact ran both last sections nearly the same...should have been slower by some way
 
Last edited:
Code: 
              [COLOR=red][B]Al Ferof[/B][/COLOR]     [COLOR=blue][B]HF[/B][/COLOR]
 
H1 - H2         43.00    43.95 = [B][COLOR=red]+2.2%[/COLOR][/B]
H2 - H3         42.88    43.12 = [COLOR=red][B]+0.6%[/B][/COLOR]
H3 - H4         23.99    24.94 = [B][COLOR=red]+4.0%[/COLOR][/B]
H4 - H5         20.24    20.05 = [COLOR=blue][B]+0.9%[/B][/COLOR]
H5 - H6         36.98    35.02 = [COLOR=blue][B]+5.3%[/B][/COLOR]
H6 - H7         17.91    17.81 = [B][COLOR=blue]+0.6%[/COLOR][/B]
H7 - H8         25.84    25.08 = [B][COLOR=blue]+2.9%[/COLOR][/B]
H8 - FIN        12.21    13.03 = [COLOR=red]+[/COLOR][B][COLOR=red][COLOR=red]6.[/COLOR]7%[/COLOR][/B]

for a novice to go faster early and finish faster than a CH winner has to be unusual..that is a slow finish for the champ for sure
 
EC1 said:
that aside...its pretty easy to see that with the energy B used up between H2 & H3..and before that...there is no way he should have been able to run a final section nearly on a par with HF..in fact ran both last sections nearly the same...should have been slower by some way
Click to expand...

Well I think it just backs up your original thought that they were doing very similar things at the end of the race, but that Binocular had a harder time of it early on.

That said, its hard to know how much of it is down to HF not settling, or idling in front, or putting in a quicker sectional later on in the race (between the 5th and 6th) when its comparitively harder to do so. And without a big sample of races to compare to, we don't know how fast that slow sectional early on should be - it could be that Binocular ran it slowly and HF ran it very slowly and it had little impact on either of their energy reserves come the end.
 
EC1 said:
a slow early pace hasn't inconvenienced him before though over 2 miles

he "folded" in comparison to novice Al ferof who ran from the last hurdle to the line nearly 5 lengths faster
Click to expand...

Have you taken into account Al Ferof was carrying 3lb less EC1?
 
Back
Top