Champion Stakes

Euronymous said:
I think Mr Segal was the first pundit I heard voice this and it does have some merit, but for me it's now getting to be an overfactored thing in the market. Vision has good form elsewhere and for me crucially ran well at the back end of the season last year.
Click to expand...

I think Stan was referring to teh QE2
 
In a race like this I'm looking for an animal that's relatively fresh and has won at this level, over this trip and on similar ground.

This rules out:
Twice Over - too many races.
Poet's Voice - Unproven at the trip.
Fuisse - Unproven at the trip.
Await the Dawn. Never contested a Group 1.
Snow Fairy. Classic filly
Gitano Hernando - Trip, ground and class issues.

Vision hasn't advertised that he is as good as he was last year but has won at this level, has no ground issues and is foreign trained so automatically is priced longer than he should be. Because of my first concern I'm not filling my boots like others but he's a legitimate bet
 
You two know a lot more than I do but I have to disagree about the unreliability of the Ascot form - I think this may affect some horses, but the article by the forum's Prufrock shows that Ascotitis is an overrated factor, and probably doesn't exist.

EC .. yes, i would love him to win, and am glad he has fulfilled his potential, though to be honest I didn't see this happening by Godolphin trying to settle him out the back, so well done to them. The 6/1 is certainly a fair price, and think he has a much better chance than all the others with the exception of Vision d'Etat.

Await the dawn is a crazy price and will be a nice place lay. Same with Snow Fairy, and I don't understand their proximity to Poet's Voice in the market. Perhaps a match bet or 2 will be the way to go.
 
Euronymous said:
In a race like this I'm looking for an animal that's relatively fresh and has won at this level, over this trip and on similar ground.

This rules out:
Twice Over - too many races.
Poet's Voice - Unproven at the trip.
Fuisse - Unproven at the trip.
Await the Dawn. Never contested a Group 1.
Snow Fairy. Classic filly
Gitano Hernando - Trip, ground and class issues.

Vision hasn't advertised that he is as good as he was last year but has won at this level, has no ground issues and is foreign trained so automatically is priced longer than he should be. Because of my first concern I'm not filling my boots like others but he's a legitimate bet
Click to expand...

Agree with some of that, but I think Poet's Voice has been doing his best at the end of his recent races and there is every reason to think he will even improve for the step up in trip.
 
EC1 said:
I think Stan was referring to teh QE2
Click to expand...


I've read people on forums use the Ascot form thing as a reason to doubt the level Harbinger reached. And yet the likes of Canford Cliffs, George Washington, Paco Boy etc etc ran just as well elsewhere as they did at Ascot.
 
i don't really buy the Ascot thing too much tbh..its not got the idiosyncracy

yes its got this ground thing going off since they messed about with it...but its not enough to convince me

i can't really see PV not liking further..he may be even better at that trip..which would make him a good bet in this
 
Hamm said:
You two know a lot more than I do but I have to disagree about the unreliability of the Ascot form - I think this may affect some horses, but the article by the forum's Prufrock shows that Ascotitis is an overrated factor, and probably doesn't exist.
Click to expand...

I disagree, the article whilst well argued only used handicap form and a comparison of running to Timeform figures if I remember correctly and didn't address the issue that they do run on the straight track for sections of the round course races. The data is also limited given it's still a newish track (somethign acknowledged in the article).

One only needs to look at a horse like Makfi to see that how some horses just don't perform there. It is very difficult to get a statistical handle on it but there have been some exaggerated results there in Group Ones (both large winning distances and the proximity of lesser horses) on an alarming regular basis.

I agree the factor can be overplayed but I know from personal experience that my speed ratings at Ascot are unreliable at other tracks.
 
Makfi was injured there in the St James Palace, and ducked under the stall (unusual behaviour, possibly remembering his first visit) on his second, so i don't think he would be an example.
 
Gamla Stan said:
One only needs to look at a horse like Makfi to see that how some horses just don't perform there.
Click to expand...

But that is different than doubting a horse is capable of replicating his form elsewhere. York is also a track where certain horses disappoint whenever they go there.
 
He didn't get injured in the St James Palace, he was found to have a throat infection afterwards. I don't buy this "equine memory" shite, plenty of horses run bad races at tracks and then go back there and win.

He was beaten so easily in the QE2 you couldn't argue ducking under the stall was the reason for such a poor performance.

Soumillon said "The track did not suit him. I think he still had the memory of his last run here. He was nervous and anxious. Maybe this place does not suit him."

I think the track not suiting is more likely than his memory!
 
Well, wouldn't that then indicate Makfi is better on a straight mile than going round a bend?
 
In a race like this I'm looking for the best horse. That is Vision d'Etat. That it is his trip, ground, target and he is value are just bonuses. I have a few pennies at 6.0+ from earlier in the week. Might look for some more on the day.
 
Final Declarations:

Alwaary (USA)
Debussy (IRE)
Fuisse (FR) (Tongue Strap)
Gitano Hernando
Glass Harmonium (IRE)
Sri Putra (Blinkers)
Twice Over
Vision d'Etat (FR)
Await The Dawn (USA)
Poet's Voice (Tongue Strap)
Wigmore Hall (IRE)
 
Vision D'Etat is a class horse, he is consistent and he hasn't had the tough season that some of the others have had. He is the one the others will have to beat.
Await the Dawn could make the frame, but I don't think that he will have made enough improvement to beat Vision D'Etat.
 
Galileo said:
The French have a really good record in this race in recent years - two of the last four winners - with that in mind I think Fuisse is an interesting runner. I think Marek is a superb trainer, one of the best in Europe and I love to see her bring runners over. Won an admittidly poor Moulin last time out but on that occasion he looked as though the return to 10 furlongs would really suit. Drying ground should suit him or should certainly not be an inconvience and 8/1 I think he is pretty fair value in a very open race.
Click to expand...

Certainly produced a smart performance to win the Moulin having been held up off what look a pretty steady gallop. Despite his pedigree, there must be some doubts about the trip though, given that his two attempts (neither of which I have seen I must admit) resulted in defeat at a lower level than this.

I find myself an advocate of Twice Over at this stage having been a sceptic for most of the last two years. People say the 10f division this year is gash (it is), but on balance he has better form than Vision D'Etat in my book. I accept that he might have had enough but he has had a decent break since Leopardstown and, those doubts aside, has a lot less questions to answer than most of these.
 
Really? With both Godolphin horses running below par I couldn't have him at all.

I think Fuisse is the only danger to Vision and Workforce styley I've doubled him with Long Run.
 
Back
Top