Champions Day

Aragorn said:
Charm Spirit not getting the credit he deserves here. NOT wouldn't have got past him if he had another 2f; Charm Spirit picked up again when NOT came to him. A lot of pocket talking if you ask me....
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................and winners don't pocket talk? :)
Whichever way you dress it up, Hughsie lost a piece more ground switching the horse than he was eventually beaten by.
It's purely academic now, as he's retired to stud, but my firm view is that Charm Spirit would have won neither this or the Moulin - had they been run at a proper racing pace.
 
reet hard said:
................and winners don't pocket talk? :)
Whichever way you dress it up, Hughsie lost a piece more ground switching the horse than he was eventually beaten by.
It's purely academic now, as he's retired to stud, but my firm view is that Charm Spirit would have won neither this or the Moulin - had they been run at a proper racing pace.
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obviously thats right
covered more ground , didnt use the horse when needed but the worse part of the ride was when he forfeited ground at the beggining of the race on hughes asking.

in normal circunstances night of thunder would have won last Saturday in style.
 
Ardross said:
I cannot quite see what Hughes did wrong on Night of Thunder - they all came over to the stands side and that is where the deadwood was too in front - had he stayed there almost certainly he would have run into the back of them - none appeared to come off the rail . It was just bad luck that a gap did not come .
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Listen to the commentary if nothing else. He always manages to get behind horses and then sit there, you don't do that in races like this. Too late he then decides to go wide, decided that was a bad idea, came back inside.....if you add up the distance of those moves it was less than the winning distance. His face said it all when he came in. If there's no pace and you need some, get out from behind a wall of horses and do it yourself. Hughes could get blocked in on a walk over.
 
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sunybay said:
obviously thats right
covered more ground , didnt use the horse when needed but the worse part of the ride was when he forfeited ground at the beggining of the race on hughes asking.

in normal circunstances night of thunder would have won last Saturday in style.
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Exactly
 
clivex said:
Attendance 4000 up on last year and second biggest so far. That pretty well confirms that the project is a success and it is here to stay.
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Possibly distorted by half price/free offers to be had and those that turned up for the 'party' afterwards rather than the racing.
 
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G-G said:
Listen to the commentary if nothing else. He always manages to get behind horses and then sit there, you don't do that in races like this. Too late he then decides to go wide, decided that was a bad idea, came back inside.....if you add up the distance of those moves it was less than the winning distance. His face said it all when he came in. If there's no pace and you need some, get out from behind a wall of horses and do it yourself. Hughes could get blocked in on a walk over.
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Manoeuvres like that cost inches at most in terms of distance travelled. Wasted energy making those moves is arguably more crucial.

In terms of the distance, in situations like this I always recall the Godolphin winner of the Champion Stakes (I think) a number of years ago. Dettori weaved passages right left and centre throughout the race but the transponder readings said the horse actually travelled less distance than any other.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In terms of the distance, in situations like this I always recall the Godolphin winner of the Champion Stakes (I think) a number of years ago. Dettori weaved passages right left and centre throughout the race but the transponder readings said the horse actually travelled less distance than any other.
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Somebody help me out here.

I checked the history of the race and see that Dettori has never ridden the winner so what race am I thinking of (I was sure it was Newmarket and the Champion Stakes)? I'll need to check it was the QEII or whatever but it was obviously not all that long ago if we're talking about transponders measuring distances travelled by individual horses.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Manoeuvres like that cost inches at most in terms of distance travelled. Wasted energy making those moves is arguably more crucial.

In terms of the distance, in situations like this I always recall the Godolphin winner of the Champion Stakes (I think) a number of years ago. Dettori weaved passages right left and centre throughout the race but the transponder readings said the horse actually travelled less distance than any other.
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Not sure of the race (might even have been July course) but recall a horse shown as travelling less far because of the undulations on the other side of the track.
Your whole point is academic anyway, as it's quite clear from the replay that NOT was within 1/2l of CS, which morphed into 2l as a result of Hughsie's switch.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bang on my figure.


Just to clarify:
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now i'm confused..need to clarify

their figures are on the 0-140 scale..are yours on a different scale?

all my speed igures work off the OHR..which is also on the 0-140 scale.

working off of OHR..the speed figure is 129..not 123

a 129 is above average on my figures

out of interest...what form and speed figure did you get for Frankel when he won at York?
 
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I noticed some years back that my classier [form] ratings tend to be 5lbs below Timeform's. Or, to put it another way, I noticed when there is a crossover between handicap and conditions-race form there is a 5lbs gap. The natural conclusion is that, assuming Timeform are the be all and end all, either my handicap ratings are 5lbs too high or my conditions-race form is 5lbs too low. I make that adjustment to compensate when comparing my figures.

The unclear element is why that is. You/they say they work to a 140 scale. That's 10-0 (obviously).

I work to 126 for a genuine G1 horse at 9-0, which I would say correlates directly to ORs. In theory that should be 140 at 10-0 too.

Why that 5lbs anomaly exists I can't quite figure out. I suspect it's that ORs are maybe conservative by 5lbs or that our handicaps aren't quite as open as I reckon. As I said, I compensate for it in a way that works for me.

But if Noble Mission is a 128 horse then so is Al Kazeem? With his history? And what about all the other collateral form tying in with those two? My 123 for NM & AK is where they fit in in the big scheme of things over the seasons. If they are 128 animals then Treve is 135? What about Siljan's Saga, well beaten in the Arc when a rank outsider? 123? Western Hymn, 3rd the other day off 112, is he really a 121 animal?

I suppose I could up my ratings by 5lbs across the board but that would mean reducing by 5lbs my notional figure regarding how much the long-term average winner of the various classes of handicap has in hand of its OR.

I've said before, I started compiling my own ratings seriously after once seeing my betting bank, which i'd built up one season from 10pts to 130+ following my own figures, wiped out in a month following Timeform's ratings [which I decided to buy as I thought I could then afford it] before abandoning Timeform and getting the back up to 100+ by the end of that same season. You know yourself I do OK following my own figures so while we often disagree (which I think is healthy) I also think when we do agree we have something to go to war with.
 
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so when you say a true G1 should be contested by a number of 126 horses..you mean 131/132 horses on TF scale?

what time & form figures did you get for Frankel at York out of interest?
 
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EC1 said:
so when you say a true G1 should be contested by a number of 126 horses..you mean 131/132 horses on TF scale?

what time & form figures did you get for Frankel at York out of interest?
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Since I don't buy Timeform, I don't know what their ratings are for their horses.

As for Frankel, the stuff for his 3 & 4yo seasons is up in the loft. I'll need to look it out but remember he gave Farhh, OR 122, a 13lbs beating so it would not be off the scale. I'll look it out and get back to you.

Edit - I'm pretty sure I had plenty to say on here at the time! (And it was effusive in its praise for Frankel.)
 
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Pick any six [UK] horses you want to compare ratings with and I'll do it but just as an example, I wouldn't have Slade Power within 7lbs of their 130 (which puts him within 5lbs of Dayjur!!!) and I think I might have Olympic Glory on 124.

Thanks for the links, btw.
 
I agree re Slade Power..the current crop of sprinters can't be that high...120 is about top sprinter level at the moment..and in many races Slade Power hasn't actually done it on the clock either. Even sole Power can't be above 120 ..slade power is rated 120 OHR ...or you would have lots of 112 types in the 120's..which isn't real is it?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Somebody help me out here.

I checked the history of the race and see that Dettori has never ridden the winner so what race am I thinking of (I was sure it was Newmarket and the Champion Stakes)? I'll need to check it was the QEII or whatever but it was obviously not all that long ago if we're talking about transponders measuring distances travelled by individual horses.
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I believe it was this race herre you may be thinking of

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS
 
I think you're right, simmo. That would have been when Ascot was under reconstruction?

So Dettori didn't win the race, as I'd thought, but instead of losing 20 yards he ended up running less distance than the winner?

It all rings a bell.

How tf did you find that race, btw?
 
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I managed to get a look at the times yesterday.

It was one of those days when, in my opinion, times were largely meaningless. It isn't hard to conclude that NM's race was the fastest but quantifying it is much more tricky.

GLB won the sprint and Charm Spirit the mile under the stand rail but the closing handicap saw the far side side group five lengths ahead at halfway and further than that at the line. It seems clear that the going was faster on the far side in the straight but what about the round course, which is traditionally softer?

I don't know how meaningful the sectionals will be on the round course given the big difference in distances run (10f, 12f & 16f). I also think they went too fast in the fillies' race (suggesting Chicquita ran a lot better than her placing).

I have a theory about NM's race (which might be entirely without any foundation). I just wonder if he and Al Kazeem got the best tactical rides on the day. The pace looked reasonable and even, so were they at an advantage by being towards the front entering the straight, at which point they would have been meeting the better ground before their rivals? This might have allowed them to poach a little more distance on their rivals. Just a thought.
 
Thanks to Perpetual for posting the thoughts of the handicapper [Phil Smith] on the thread of that title:

I have been telling my International colleagues that Noble Mission was a reformed horse this year but on our interactive system I was 2lbs higher than everyone else in the world when he won at Sandown and Chester in the spring. I knew he would run well on Saturday but I didn’t think he could win. I used Free Eagle who I had on 119 when he won in Ireland as my marker which brought Al Kazeem out on 121 just a little lower than his best before he was retired, with Noble Mission on 122, the same as Twice Over recorded in the race in 2009.
What happened to Cirrus Des Aigles? It was the perfect ground and trip but a look at the sectionals might explain it. Cirrus Des Aigles was the fastest horse from 6 to 5 furlongs, from 5 to 4 furlongs and from 4 to 3 furlongs. He was sixth fastest in each of the three furlongs splits from there to the finish. Either by accident or design, by over confidence or a loss of concentration the jockey asked too much of him too early in the race. By contrast James Doyle set a very even pace. Not once from 7 furlongs out did he set the fastest fraction on Noble Mission. He got the horse into a lovely rhythm and got a breather into him from the 6 to the 5 pole where he was the slowest horse in the field.
Overall the QIPCO Champion Stakes was the fastest relative time of the day as you would hope from the best race, the winner was the horse who, despite leading, never put up the fastest sectional in the final 7 furlongs. Congratulations Noble Mission and J.Doyle!
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Helps put the race in context, especially CDA's disappointing performance.
 
121 isn't a little lower for al kazeem its a lot ...he's a 126 horse on OHR's at best and has easily run to that

how he can rate a race around a lightly raced 119p horse without allowing for improvement is just daft...thats the same 119 horse that was odds on to beat Australia

the times tell you that Al kazeem has run the best race of his career here...a little too conservative i think

he is happy enough to quote times re CDA..but then ignores the overall race time...amateur hour imo

what was your speed figure for Noble Mission?
 
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EC1 said:
what was your speed figure for Noble Mission?
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I didn't do one. I didn't think there was enough evidence to support attempting one. It isn't as if there was a fast-run Class 2 handicap over C&D the same day. The pace collapsed in the F&M race so you would expect NM's race to be a good bit faster, especially given what a poor field that was, as was the 2-miler.

In situations like this I tend to rate the race via the form, assume a time rating for the race to match that and then see how much slower the other races were. I learned this approach many years ago after being suckered into giving fast times for ordinary horses that were faster on the day than other ordinary horses. I remember giving the likes of Cataldi a speed figure of something like 129 on its Champion Stakes rating and Legal Case something even more ridiculous like 135 in his renewal.

Mordinesque.
 
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