Champions Day

I drove past the course around midday and it was raining. I am six miles away and there has been steady drizzle since late afternoon. Also noticed they are asking £12 to park in car park one. Utterly ridiculous.
I don't like Newmarket but I think this meeting 'sits' better there than at Ascot.
 
Well the Champion stakes and QEII fields look like G1 fields albeit not special - barring G Force the sprint looks like a G3 and the fillies race is not a G1 race at all G2 at best . Long Distance Cup saved by Leading Light and Estimate otherwise it would look almost listed class !
 
Cirrus worthy fav and one to beat in Champion. Noble Mission will for sure be in the shake up but just may set it up for Cirrus. In terms of Value ROTW still decent price considering how well he ran in it last year. My slight doubt is the fact this will be his 3rd fairly quickish run back from layoff. Wish he had skipped the Arc.
Fancy NOT in the mile to beat Charm Spirit. Tonto to fill the 3. Though Kingsbarns could be worth a nibble at the price.
May have a nibble on Eton Forever in the sprint and Whiplash in the Long Distance.
The Fillies and Mares looks a bit tricky to me. Silk Sari was impressive last time out. I Would be all over Hadaatha but the ground would be a concern.

As for future Champs day tomorrow. Any strong opinions?
Should Estidhkaar be odds on? Kodi Bear interests me in that one.
 
Sprint is a Group 2 and the fillies was upgraded last year due to the quality of the previous winners of the race. Ironically, this years field is pretty average; maybe they should have left it as a Group 2.

The QEII is not a select field but there are plenty of runners and a couple of Group 1 performers in the field. Its just unfortunate Kingman was retired as really, he dominated the Mile scene this year. Probably the best 3yo in the UK.

Personally I think the Champion stakes has benefitted the most as a race since it was moved to Ascot. For me it always used to be an average Group 1 on an average days racing at the end of the flat season.
 
This Champions' Day palaver is a bit of a joke. It's most certainly a misnomer.

These are the top ratings of the so called championship races:

Stayers: 118 (Leading Light)
Sprint: 118 (GLB; G Force)
F&M: 114 (arguably equivalent to 117 in males)(Hadatha)
Mile: 122 (Charm Spirit)
10f: 123 (Cirrus)

I've said more than once that I reckon you really need to be a 126 animal (123 f&m) to be considered G1. Treve was 130 in last year's Arc and 127 this season. Cirrus at his very best is maybe a 127/128 animal so he's probably the only genuine G1 horse running all day. Ruler Of The World at his very best might not be that far behind so the Champion Stakes is probably a no more than a fair-to-middling G1 race.

Then again, the very soft ground might just make more of a mockery of the entire event than it already looks.

And does the BBC have a snide agenda of its own? I see they've been giving the meeting plenty of mentions on the news channel today, even to the point of having Hayley Turner (wtf?) in the studio for a pointless interview (since she won't even be there). I'm just wondering if the Beeb have been casting an envious eye at the big Ascot meetings this season and wondering if they erred somewhat in allowing it to go and are maybe hatching a plan to try and get it back.
 
Quite sweet on DREAM WALKER in the Balmoral. A French bred by Gold Away who should love the ground which is the main reason I like him.
Supported into a general 20/1, this may not be a bad second string for Brian Ellison. Cannot be badly handicapped either with 8:4.
 
Last edited:
I've set a calendar reminder for the future champions day next year. I'll take the missus to a flower show or sit and wait for 4 hours+ while she has whatever she has done to her hair in the hairdressers.

Anything but show any form of interest in the Newmarket meeting.

Of course I'm talking through my pocket but that is carnage and god forbid Ascot is anything like tomorrow. Definitely time to draw the curtain on my flat season right now.
 
You not worried about the ground for him EC? I know he has won on soft but he floundered a bit in France on bad ground. Suppose it depends how deep we get tomorrow.
 
Frankel said:
You not worried about the ground for him EC? I know he has won on soft but he floundered a bit in France on bad ground. Suppose it depends how deep we get tomorrow.
Click to expand...


has won twice in ground worse than the Deauville run..Sandown for one..softer the better and at the massive price i'm not worried.....will relish the surface as much as the fav
 
EC1 said:
has won twice in ground worse than the Deauville run..Sandown for one..softer the better and at the massive price i'm not worried.....will relish the surface as much as the fav
Click to expand...

Of that french race Gosden said it was pretty terrible ground and he didn't like it at all.
Maybe it was just a day he didn't fire.
 
Frankel said:
Of that french race Gosden said it was pretty terrible ground and he didn't like it at all.
Maybe it was just a day he didn't fire.
Click to expand...

he is bred for bad ground..and has shown he acts well on it..if he were evens i might be worried by that last run..as it is..its 20.0...so is a no brainer...particularly when you look at a horse like ROTW who is half the price and wouldn't win at 10f whilst it has a hole in its arse...and has been beaten every time he has faced soft ground...i'd certainly be worried if i backed him at the price.
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
particularly when you look at a horse like ROTW who is half the price and wouldn't win at 10f whilst it has a hole in its arse...and has been beaten every time he has faced soft ground...i'd certainly be worried if i backed him at the price.
Click to expand...

ROTW ran to not far short of 130 when he was third in this last year, on soft ground. He's got the class to go close in this, Western Hymn has not. That's why the former is a lot shorter.
 
Euronymous said:
ROTW ran to not far short of 130 when he was third in this last year, on soft ground. He's got the class to go close in this, Western Hymn has not. That's why the former is a lot shorter.
Click to expand...

ROTW can be a 140 horse for what its worth..to actually win at 10f is different to plodding into a place..no matter what the rating...which he probably will. No such thing as class really imo..on the day its the horse that runs faster longer in the conditions...we only seen Western Hymn a few times so we don't really know his full ability..i'd rather gamble he is pretty good over 10 on slow ground..and take 20.0..than back a horse half the price that won't win at the distance.

i'm not a complete slave to handicap ratings..it seriously limits your imagination and selections to be fair i've found
 
His best run was over course and distance last year in this very race. He's out of a mare who's sire was a miler. 10f is fine.
 
he has always been a plodder..i were only one on the forum who wasn't impressed with his Derby win at the time..got told then he would never be beat ..he is a slow horse..nowt wrong with that..but he is no 10f horse...never has been..should be over 12f..but AOB is obsessed with 10f..so thats where he runs..they just hoping one falls in his lap

i can't win this tbh..if he gets beat it won't be mentioned again..and it will be any reason bar that he needs further..if he wins i'll never hear last of it..you can't win really by passing strong opinions on here

you back your fancy..i'll back mine..i hope it wins for you
 
Look, the shape of the race is defined by Free Eagle who might be one of the worst priced horses of the year. This means there is value to be had lower down the market, especially if we take the view that CDA might be vulnerable given his age/possibility that he isn't as good as he was. I don't understand why in your Western Hymn piece an 8/1 shot was the horse you aimed at rather than the two market leaders, both of which are far worse value.
 
Euronymous said:
Look, the shape of the race is defined by Free Eagle who might be one of the worst priced horses of the year. This means there is value to be had lower down the market, especially if we take the view that CDA might be vulnerable given his age/possibility that he isn't as good as he was. I don't understand why in your Western Hymn piece an 8/1 shot was the horse you aimed at rather than the two market leaders, both of which are far worse value.
Click to expand...

i've never rated ROTW..hence mentioning him in a race i think won't play to his staying need...free eagle could bolt in..open to x amount of improvement...CDA has to be that price. I think the most likely winner is Free Eagle..but i like Western Hymn a lot under the conditions at the price.

we'll see..its an intriguing race without being the best ever 10f race
 
Certainly wouldn't question your poke on the Gosden horse. I can forgive a poor run. Think your being a bit harsh with ROTW. He's never been a world beater but his run in the race last year on soft ground was solid. The Arc was a non event and he should always have come straight here.
 
Frankel said:
Certainly wouldn't question your poke on the Gosden horse. I can forgive a poor run. Think your being a bit harsh with ROTW. He's never been a world beater but his run in the race last year on soft ground was solid. The Arc was a non event and he should always have come straight here.
Click to expand...

I'm not being harsh..just realistic..the horse is clearly a 12f animal..but AOB always tries to get 10f wins with those animals...so you have a horse that might have won 12f races..placing in 10f ones..instead of winning at its correct distance. Its basically like having Frankel..winning a couple at a mile..then never run him over a mile again..even if he failed to win at further..just keep bashing away so you can say..oh yes he was a champion miler..and won at 10 & 12..even though we took 8 failures to get there.

Distance is key..i just like horses to be put in races where they can win..not just place
 
:
EC1 said:
I'm not being harsh..just realistic..the horse is clearly a 12f animal..but AOB always tries to get 10f wins with those animals...so you have a horse that might have won 12f races..placing in 10f ones..instead of winning at its correct distance. Its basically like having Frankel..winning a couple at a mile..then never run him over a mile again..even if he failed to win at further..just keep bashing away so you can say..oh yes he was a champion miler..and won at 10 & 12..even though we took 8 failures to get there.

Distance is key..i just like horses to be put in races where they can win..not just place
Click to expand...

On fast ground I would agree with you EC, but he has shown in last year's race that he is fully effective over this shorter trip on soft ground. Horses can be effective over different trips especially if handling different grounds.
Is a good debate and what this game is all about. :cool:

Looking forward to tomorrow's racing.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top