some of my notes on the gold cup from last year :
The winning time of Kauto Star in last year's GS was 6m 40.2s whereas Denman's time was 6m 47.8s this year. Although the going in both years was given as G/S if was probably nearer Good last year: all the 2008 races have been slower than their equivalents in 2007 .
As was also noted, times for the first circuit differ by around 1.42 seconds, with 2008 being the faster. However, Denman's winning time was 6.4784, ie 7.6 seconds slower than Kauto Star's in 2007
If they went 1.42 second faster in the first half of the race but end up 7.6 seconds slower overall something was not right
From the start of the race to the first fence in the straight the 2008 field covered the distance in 3.15.88 in the 2007 field did it in 3.1761 which means the 2008 field covered the distance 1.73 seconds faster. This is the exact place Denman took up the running. Since the 2008 race was 7.6 seconds slower than the 2007 it means Denman has taken almost 9 seconds longer to cover the distance that what Kauto Star did the year before.
Kauto Star clearly never travelled or jumped, and this was plain to see from early on in the race, his jumping was bad from the second fence There was no way he was being put under pressure at that point! , long before Denman could have had any effect on Kauto Star's running. Ruby usually has trouble settling him early, as he wants to go on - nothing like that yesterday, he was just never going. Only his class got him round and into 2nd up the hill.
Mr Findlay comments suggest that "they" decided on tactics designed to beat Kauto. No doubt, but who decided those tactics, and to what extent did they include the trainer. Of course Kauto Star was never going to make the running, but who decided that Neptune Collonges would make it (Mr Hales?, Mr Nicholls?). Of course NC has made the running before, and has nearly always run up with the pace, but there is no doubt in my mind that this tactic gave benefit to Denman over Kauto Star, without the possible drawback of Denman having to make the running for the entire trip.
his jumping has been outstanding this season so why so poor?. In the Gold Cup he got too close to the first in the straight and from that moment on he’s gone, There was no confidence in his jumping, he’s getting in close to every fence….he jumps getting no height at them………that is a sure fire sign of a horse who is either under pressure or totally unhappy on the ground.
Paul Moloney, who rode Enlightenment in the Grand Annual, reported that the horse couldn't get his feet out of the ground to jump a fence. Enlightenment’s and Kauto Star's jumping of the early fences was very similar, basically not getting high enough and either hitting or brushing through the top of fence it just shows a horse that likes real good ground struggles to jump in soft conditions.
Quotes from ruby Walsh
“ he’s the best horse I’ve road in my generation”
Thomo “he that good?”
Ruby Walsh “his different league!”
Ruby had ridden both Denman and Kauto many a time and has made the wrong choice? That in my mind and his own is un thinkable and a choice that someone of his experience would not get wrong other that that it shows in what regard if Kauto isn’t the best of the two how much he loves Kauto and I would put all my money on Ruby picking Kauto over Denman again if he ever has to make that choice.
from Paul Nicholls "He was wound up in his stable at Cheltenham, walking round and round. He didn't jump with his usual fluency and once he hit those two fences at the end of the first circuit I knew it was already over for him. He wasn't cruising like he usually does. I’m not making excuses but, for whatever reason, he wasn't sparkling maybe ascot took it out of him winning with a injury and horses who ran at the Ascot meeting, like Kauto, Twist Magic and Tamarinbleu, didn't perform to their best at Cheltenham, and running them there could have taken the edge off them and I would be inclined not to go for the Ascot Chase again with Kauto Star next year.”
The night after the ascot win it looked as if the showdown might not happen, after all. Kauto Star was lame. Luckily, the vet only had to drain a build-up of pus from under a shoe, first thing next morning, and he was sound again. The second person in his box, when he returned from Ascot, had been Barber, who also happens to be Nicholls' landlord. "He was there again first thing in the morning, as well, when the vet came," Nicholls recalled. "And all he kept saying was that we simply had to get Kauto to Cheltenham, to run against his horse, that the match had to come off."
how slow Denman covered the last half of the race........Neptune Collonges
was 3 seconds faster for the first half Denman was 9 seconds slower for the second half........just makes you wonder how good a performance it really was..........he's beat Exotic Dancer not fit Kauto Star not himself and Neptune Collonges not in the same class...maybe he's great I have my doubts
Kauto Star is well known for his very high cruising speed and one of the best turns of foot ever seen in a chaser. Denman hasn’t even quickened the pace by the 7th fence from home and Kauto is already in trouble…….he’s only gone 2 ½ miles or so and all his talents cruising speed acceleration have gone. Gone in a flash just like that.
The worst is still to come 5 out when Denman does turn on the tap but NC goes with him and is within a length of him and Kauto has to be stoked up and can't make any ground initially. Denman draws 5 lengths or so clear of NC but Kauto hasn’t made an inch of ground up…….It takes him forever and a day to get to NC a horse that he would eat for breakfast normally.
Watch the two previous Gold Cups side by side
It's almost exact at the start, until the tenth fence, at which stage the 2008 horses are a bit clear of the 2007 horses. They stay the same until the latter stages, when Kauto Star starts coming through - he's absolutely cantering and if you watch him alongside his future self, there's no doubt as to which Kauto ran the better race. He makes up some ground in the 2007, whereas in the 2008 he's treading water at a slightly slower pace.
Kauto Star didn't run his race.
Neptune Collonges is an good horse who ran a good race on the day but like Denman was totally flattered by a Superstar who wasn't super on the day. IMO and by 7 lengths that would have been nearer 3 if Kauto hadn’t ploughed through last and almost had Ruby out the side door.
Kauto star see's out the gold cup trip and to say Kauto Star didn't get home and lacks stamina is absolute rubbish. He looked in danger of being smashed to pieces at the top of the hill but he was cutting into Denman's lead all the way up the straight Kauto Star seemed to stay every bit the trip with Denman not seeing out the last few furlongs showed how absolutely unbelievable Kauto Star is he was never quite right, yet he started to get back at him at the end, which could become very interesting on REAL GOOD GROUND. it wasn't that big a margin of victory considering all of Kauto Star blunders, it is obvious to anyone, if Kauto Star cleared every fence like he has all season he would have finished close or if not won the race against the SO CALLED new Arkle.
