Cheltenham 2009

Gal, Kauto Star went 6L up and was going away from Our Vic. It's not really relevant that he took an "age to master him". What's relevant is that as soon as he made the error, he could barely keep forward momentum.

Maybe the Gold Cup took too much out of him? Maybe he just downed tools at Aintree and didn't want to know after the error? Maybe he just doesn't truly stay beyond 3m? Maybe the track didn't suit him?

I confess I don't know. Could be a combination of all of the above that got him beat at Aintree.

All I'm saying is that, for whatever reason, Kauto Star doesn't appear able to run up to the very best of his form (Haydock, Kempton) at Cheltenham. I don't see that this is a particularly contentious position to hold, to be honest.
 
Of course the manner in which he mastered Our Vic is relevent. At Kempton he went past him so quickly and easy it was as if Our Vic and the rest were standing still.

At Aintree he was off the bridle down the back straight, laboured his way to the front and then made the mistake.

To me the run at Aintree suggests his Cheltenham run cannot be simply put down to not liking the track. Aintree is similar to Kempton in terms of it being a flat track (just going the opposite direction).
 
Grasshopper said:
Gal, Kauto Star went 6L up and was going away from Our Vic. It's not really relevant that he took an "age to master him". What's relevant is that as soon as he made the error, he could barely keep forward momentum.
Click to expand...

I would say it's very relevant.
 
Galileo said:
At Aintree he was off the bridle down the back straight, laboured his way to the front and then made the mistake.
Click to expand...

Ah..........you mean in exactly the same manner he was at the track in the Old Roan against Monets Garden....................shortly before he demolished the opposition at Haydock?
 
Interesting stuff, Firstpastthepost.

Not sure how much the Old Roan actually proves though Grasshopper, given that Nicholls had been at pains to stress beforehand how much he would come on for the run. He didn't seem to have too much trouble handling Aintree in the previous year's Old Roan either (although admittedly he beat the square root of fuck all).

To me it seems a bit far-fetched to suggest that not handling the course was solely to blame for his Gold Cup/Betfair Bowl performances. Maybe it had something to do with it (particularly Cheltenham), but to me the horse clearly wasn't right for whatever reason on either ocassion.
 
To be fair, my last post was intentionally mischevious, tracks.

As for the Gold Cup, I've already stated that, imo, it was probably a combination of the track and ground that beat Kauto Star in March. The fact that he was never really travelling or jumping would tend to indicate the latter as the more significant factor, but he has gone through the mud at Sandown before, hence it may be something to do with Cheltenham's confirmation. That said, I'll readily concede that it could be the case that Kauto Star did run-up to form, but was simply unable to lay a glove on Denman. My interpretation, however, tells me the former scenario is more likely.

Like I said about four posts back; I don't know - I only offer my interpretation.

To be honest, I've no idea why I'm even bothering getting involved in this debate - it's all been said before, and people aren't going to revise their opinions at this distance from the Gold Cup.

Personally, I'm inclined to think that the fact we're even discussing this subject in mid-July, is merely another indicator of the abject tripeness, and inherent shiteness, of the Flat season - something I'm sure we can all agree on. :D
 
Grasshopper said:
As for the Gold Cup, I've already stated that, imo, it was probably a combination of the track and ground that beat Kauto Star in March.
Click to expand...

Don't buy either of those, hopper. Just wasn't right on the day for some reasons and he confirmed that judgement with his display at Aintree IMO.

You are right about one thing though- why the fuck we're rehashing this guff with the delights of Glorious Goodwood just another the country is totally beyond me! :D
 
iv been called mad by a few people already on this and am expecting some comments like it from people on the forum also but i can only see denman only wining the lexus and the aon chase this year with snowy morning beating him in the hennesy and kauto beating him in the gold cup

I for one will lay denman in them races i have stated! :D
 
Grasshopper said:
Personally, I'm inclined to think that the fact we're even discussing this subject in mid-July, is merely another indicator of the abject tripeness, and inherent shiteness, of the Flat season - something I'm sure we can all agree on. :D
Click to expand...

Not at all. Like NH there are periods of absolute tripe during the summer, in fact traditionally the Saturday before the King George and Goodwood is possibly the worst of the entire year - flat or jumps.
 
firstpastthepost said:
iv been called mad by a few people already on this and am expecting some comments like it from people on the forum also but i can only see denman only wining the lexus and the aon chase this year with snowy morning beating him in the hennesy and kauto beating him in the gold cup

I for one will lay denman in them races i have stated! :D
Click to expand...

You heathen troublemaking upstart, you!!!!!!!!!!!

No chance.

Snowy Morning????!?!?!?!?! That proves you are really taking the piss.
 
A bit late, but I've had chance to check my own variance figures for 2007 and 2008. In 2007 Tuesdays ground was given as 'Soft'. It was however apparent as soon as the Arkle when MWDS beat standard that Simon Claisse was telling lies again. Cheltenham is just about the worst course in the country for it and wouldn't disgrace the French for their misleading going descriptions (in fact Claisse sounds distinctly French doesn't it?). Personally, (having drawn a blank on Tuesday) this insight saved me as I started betting for the faster side of good and took no notice of Claisse. By the time the Gold Cup rolled round on Friday, Claisse had ammended his lie to Good to Soft. On Thursday the correction was +0.99 and drying out quickly, there was every chance therefore that it could be close to Good to Firm come the Gold Cup. As things would transpire that's what I think it was. Kauto Star only ran 1.46 secs behind standard in a race that was notably slow. Indeed, his speed rating of 89.90 is the slowest I hold a record for (11 years). That the ground dependent Andreas won the Grand Annual at a nice tidy price thankyou also adds to the impression. I eventually made the ground +2.70 which is pretty well Good to Firm.

In 2008 by contrast (using the same method) I brought the ground out as -3.87 which is Soft. Denman was only 8.84 secs behind standard on ground that was appreciably slower than that faced by Kauto the year previous. I can't accept for one second that the Good to Soft Claisse claimed can be applied to both horses. So far as I can see one horse was benefiting from much better ground.

By running 7.38 secs slower than Kauto, Denmans performance on the time piece would be the better, and he actually tops my list of winners beating Best Mate's 2004 performance. I haven't checked the topspeed figures, but I'd be surprised if Dave Edwards doesn't have a similar finding.
 
Neptune is a bloody good horse who can improve again and maybe win next years Gold Cup.
Nothing would have beaten the monster Denman in this Gold Cup and he has to be the most exciting horse I've seen in years-since Carvill's Hill.
Exactly the same engine but Carvill's couldn't jump
 
harry said:
Neptune is a bloody good horse who can improve again and maybe win next years Gold Cup.
Click to expand...

No denying that Neptune Collonges is a "bloody good horse", but I take slight issue with the suggestion that further improvement is a formality. It's a fact that he has already had 15 starts in steeplechases, whereas Denman has only had nine. Of the pair, it would seem to me that Denman has more scope to improve further, regardless of their respective ages.
 
Back
Top