Cheltenham 2016

A

archie

Senior Jockey
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As there's no meaningful racing until Galway (:ninja:), it's a good time to get this going.

I took part in the early plunge on Holywell at 50/1 last year so I thought I'd look at the 2016 book.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

Nothing really leaps out but, if looking for a couple of double figure bets, I'd be interested in More Of That in the RSA at 16/1 and Vroum Vroum Mag in the Ryanair at 14/1.

Anyone else got any long term fancies (as in fancy prices)?
 
25's is actually probably a little short if i'm honest, but I wouldn't be surprised if Champagne Fever came back to himself next season and entered the Champion Chase picture.

I fully expected him to run stink at Punchestown after such a poor run at Aintree. I suppose you could say he's regressed. Badly. Or some people will try and be insightful and question ALL of his form, which to me is BS.

The way I see it, his campaign was all over the place this season. Pre-King George the world was his oyster. Then when it was apparent he wasn't going to be a Gold Cup horse it was a campaign change. His run when falling at the last against Don Cossack makes for good reading now seeing what DC has done. Spin around nto, and then ran stink at both Aintree and Punchestown. I expect the only reason he ran at Punchestown was that it looked a poor race and was a home match for connections. Even with Ruby up, he drifted like a barge all day, and ran accordingly.

The fact that he's trained by WPM means you cannot write this horse off in my opinion. If there's one man that can get to the bottom of the horse and re-light its fire it is Willie. I would expect Vautour to go the Gold Cup route leaving just Un De Sceaux in the Champion Chase picture. Obviously, Champagne Fever would have zero chance against UDS even on his very best form, BUT if anything happened UDS through injury etc. I would be amazed if Champagne Fever was not their number one hope in a division lacking any real class. Outside of UDS obviously.

A lot of if's and but's, but that's why he's the price he is. I wouldn't be bullish, but I wouldn't be 1 to give up on the horse just yet.
 
Looking back at the Champion Hurdle the writing was on the wall months before they went to post.

Just about everyone was in Faugheen's camp but that was as much to do with the lack of real opposition as it was his obvious talent.

That's reflected in the 2016 betting, bookies offering any price you like on Jezki and Arctic Fire.

Evens year away is a ridiculous price about Faugheen especially with new opposition coming along

Peace and Co looks the obvious bet and could be the one that takes his crown.

A large framed horse he's got a bit of filling out to do and if he does well during his summer break he could just about be anything.

He couldn't have been more impressive in the Triumph under Barry G who gave him the perfect ride only doing what he had to but never looked like losing.

At 10/1 ew he looks a much more sensible bet than having your tank on Faugheen.

An even better AP bet comes in the shape of Douvan a horse who for me would kick Faugheen into touch if he were to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle.

However his future looks sure to be over fences WPM stating he can't wait to put him over fences.

A clear round and a facile win over fences and he'll be odds on in a flash like UDS before him.

3/1 to me looks well worth taking.

Another AP bet at this time is Minella Rocco who is regarded as the best young horse Jonjo has had in years.

No way will he stick to hurdling and if he is good as he thinks he is the one more likely to be aimed at the RSA

The World Hurdle was regarded as a bit of a let down and for that reason if More of That bounces back I think you'll find he'll stay hurdling.

Thing of course very seldom work out the way you think so fingers cross they all do well during their summer breaks

I can't see Jonjo lowering his sights with his horse 16/1 looks very generous.


Minella Rocco 16/1
Peace and Co 10/1
Douvan 3/1
 
Cheltenham's additional race from 2016 will be an amateur bumper, confined to ex-professionals and Olympians from other sports. :confused:
 
hezz said:
25's is actually probably a little short if i'm honest, but I wouldn't be surprised if Champagne Fever came back to himself next season and entered the Champion Chase picture.

I fully expected him to run stink at Punchestown after such a poor run at Aintree. I suppose you could say he's regressed. Badly. Or some people will try and be insightful and question ALL of his form, which to me is BS.
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horse simply isn't a grade 1 horse outside of cheltenham. too many bad runs to ignore.

as far as the champion hurdle goes faugheen could go off the shortest fave for the race in a long time. not convinced peace & co would trouble him. juveniles hardly ever step up into anything great and it'll take a great one to stop him. 10/1 could be a nice bad e/w bet though as the race may only have a handful of runners.
 
JamesRB said:
as far as the champion hurdle goes faugheen could go off the shortest fave for the race in a long time. not convinced peace & co would trouble him. juveniles hardly ever step up into anything great and it'll take a great one to stop him.
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Not convinced myself that Faugheen is great.

As for Peace and Co. I think the old course will suit him much more than the new and he should get better ground than he had in the Triumph. I'm onboard at 12s
 
Euronymous said:
Not convinced myself that Faugheen is great.

As for Peace and Co. I think the old course will suit him much more than the new and he should get better ground than he had in the Triumph. I'm onboard at 12s
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triumph winners usually want further than 2m as older hosses..and Peace & Co did best work late suggesting further will benefit..not a CH horse imo..not even a really good TH winner..and it takes an exceptional one to get near being CH level...not a chance of CH success for me..along with whatever wins teh fighting fifth..even if its not at newcastle:)
 
On a somewhat related note I noticed that 'early bird' prices for the Festival are only available until 24/10; pretty sure you could buy them until the first week of December in previous years. The website does not seem to indicate what the price goes up to after October or what they will eventually be on the day. Just something to bear in mind if you're planning to go and normally buy in advance.
oh..and the prices are still ridiculously high at 65 pounds for the first 3 days and an outrageous 79 pounds for Gold Cup - and that's the discounted rate!
 
pdleech said:
On a somewhat related note I noticed that 'early bird' prices for the Festival are only available until 24/10; pretty sure you could buy them until the first week of December in previous years. The website does not seem to indicate what the price goes up to after October or what they will eventually be on the day. Just something to bear in mind if you're planning to go and normally buy in advance.
oh..and the prices are still ridiculously high at 65 pounds for the first 3 days and an outrageous 79 pounds for Gold Cup - and that's the discounted rate!
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i strongly recommend no one goes to the festival..get some beer or wine if you prefer..whatever you like ..and watch from the armchair in high definition....far more comfy..the alternative is get ripped off with prices that are sure to make sure you have been ripped off ...and sharing the experience with a crowd of drunks and a view only a muppet would accept as reasonable. Stay home and let those that want to see nowt and pay loads have it.

watching on TV spanks going by a long way...no negatives..loads of negs by actually going. Might seem boring..but its reality.
 
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Agree EC, I don't go to the Festival anymore and I live here. Taking membership here "without the festival" pays for winter membership at Newbury.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Agree EC, I don't go to the Festival anymore and I live here. Taking membership here "without the festival" pays for winter membership at Newbury.
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you live in Cheltenham DG do you?..and even you don't want to go..that should tell a lot to people really. I last went in 85..enjoyed it..enjoy it more from the armchair though and thats without allowing for the deteriioration in public behaviour since then and the systematice emptying of wallet that now occurs at events that have grown bigger ..in mind..than what they actually are
 
EC1 said:
you live in Cheltenham DG do you?..and even you don't want to go..that should tell a lot to people really. I last went in 85..enjoyed it..enjoy it more from the armchair though and thats without allowing for the deteriioration in public behaviour since then and the systematice emptying of wallet that now occurs at events that have grown bigger ..in mind..than what they actually are
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I made my first ever visit there on the Wednesday this year
It was a beautiful place and I'm glad I went but I watched from rom a different vantage point each race and could still hardly see anything
It felt great to be there but also a bit cheated that I basically sacrificed a great days racing to do it.
 
oh i agree Fonz..the atsmophere was fantastic when i went..but the price you pay at these sort of events on the day compared with watching on TV just doesn't even out. lets be honest..these big events are a bit like standing in a pub on New Years Eve..shoulder to shoulder ...having to order 3 drinks at once to save queuing up for an hour. The actual experience is sh1te..as are most new years eve's ,,but folk always make out they enjoying it. Its like a kidology people have with themselves..bit similar to folk who say they like really hot weather..but they always sit in the shade and don't sleep at night coz its too hot..its bullsh1t kidology really
 
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EC1, if you take your argument to its logical conclusion, then you do away with spectator sport altogether.

There will always be a premium to watch top-end sport live at the venue (doesn't matter if it's the Festival, Wimbledon or the World Cup Final) and sitting opposite a hi-def telly is almost always going to give you a better view.

In fact, you can make exactly the same thing about Glasto, T in the Park and other music festivals too.

Or Crufts.

Generally people don't attend 'an event' for the view - they're motivated by other factors that cannot be replicated by sitting in front of a TV, dressed in bri-nylon, picking at your dandruff whilst they switch to Sedgefield. ;)

I would not hesitate to recommend a visit to the Cheltenham Festival to anyone.
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC1, if you take your argument to its logical conclusion, then you do away with spectator sport altogether.

There will always be a premium to watch top-end sport live at the venue (doesn't matter if it's the Festival, Wimbledon or the World Cup Final) and sitting opposite a hi-def telly is almost always going to give you a better view.

In fact, you can make exactly the same thing about Glasto, T in the Park and other music festivals too.

Or Crufts.

Generally people don't attend 'an event' for the view - they're motivated by other factors that cannot be replicated by sitting in front of a TV, dressed in bri-nylon, picking at your dandruff whilst they switch to Sedgefield. ;)

I would not hesitate to recommend a visit to the Cheltenham Festival to anyone.
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Due to the excessive number of what I like to call "other people" in attendance at the Festival (or any other big event), I'd much rather sit at home in my brown nylon underpants picking dandruff off my ****.
 
99 days until Cheltenham's first meet of the year

Gowrans PWC chase is what I consider the first race of note in the Irish season
 
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I'll be at that first Cheltenham meeting and all 4 days of the festival, fighting through the crowds, queuing for toilets, beers, shitty viewing etc. etc. Will love every second...

The UK season starts for me with the Chepstow fixture in early October that has a decent juvenile & quality handicap hurdle
 
I'm with Perp. Happy to put up with it and there's no greater highlight in my sporting year.

Always there with great company too.

When I was in Australia I was as miserable as sin when I missed any day at Cheltenham, particularly when I was being woken up on the phone at stupid o'clock by some of the reprobates on here!
 
Indeed Maruco. Walking up Cheltenham town the evening before the Festival is as close to walking through the Garden Of Eden as I am ever likely to get.
If I can find a quiet pub after racing with no loud music it would be heaven !
Rock on 2016.
 
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