cheltenham 2017

EC1 said:
TF have given him a 175..their ratings are usually a few higher than OHR's ..they had him on 190 didn't they in his pomp?..so the time figure of 172+2lb mark up looks fair DO

so according to TF he has is 15lbs below his pomp..which just shows what an animal he is to still be able to take a QMCC
Click to expand...

I'm genuinely surprised Timeform have gone as low as that. They appear to have taken the form pretty literally [with ST/GO] whereas the link DG posted elsewhere has them allowing Altior 15lbs supriority over Min, and Yorkhill 5lbs over Yanworth.

It's that kind of inconsistency (or lack of justification of the figures) that puts me off Timeform (that and the fact I nearly got my bank wiped out following them about 30 years ago).
 
Tanlic said:
TF ratings on the day were

UDS 191p

Sprinter Sacre 182

Special Tiara 177
Click to expand...

Those would be adjusted to 12-7 so you need to reduce them all by 11lbs to get the master rating.

UDS at 180 was always a tad high for me. 173+p was my figure for him. TF has obviously 'allowed' him a specific amount for ease of victory.
 
I realise that but what's annoying is they have said UDS ran below his best and made allowances for that but what they ignored was Sprinter went through the last 2 fences which is bound to have knocked the stuffing out of him to a degree, because before that he looked like he was on his way to a 12 length victory.....but came back to them.
 
Tanlic said:
TF ratings on the day were

UDS 191p

Sprinter Sacre 182

Special Tiara 177

That was so far off the mark it is Laughable.

Am I meant to believe that Sprinter Sacre was at the top of his form at Kempton?

That's what this result is telling me if Special Tiara has not improved a jot in fact Sprinter has regressed a couple of pounds since Kempton

What I have to believe is that UDS was the 180p horse Timeform said he was and he just ran a complete stinker and no way did he run his race.

They now have Sprinter Scare on 175..no wait for it..they have UDS on 174p

Now either I am completely ******* stupid but if UDS ran to a 174p then Special Tiara surely ran a person best of 174 and if he did then Sprinter Sacre ran to a 178..

That's how fucked up ratings and times cvan be,

At the ned of the day those who said UDS would beat Sprinter Scare were wrong. Those who thought he was the better horse were wrong and I was ******* right.

So wrote all the shyte you like you were WRONG !!!!!!
Click to expand...


yes..one horse ran below form in a zillion races..so what?

yes i was wrong that UDS didn't beat hosses he should have in a race...even without SS in the race..its not great beating ST a whisker..so were many other people wrong who actually backed him and made him the price he was...so what?..its one hoss in thosands..its no deal to me.

not really sure of your point though...everyone on this forum gets hosses wrong day in day out week in week out

but here is the difference..you want to pick one race where i was wrong..and highlight it..and keep on going on about it.... but your argument is flawed in this instance imo..SS isn't back to his very best..the simple fact is UDS has run to a 168 level,,,its called horse racing where many horses don't perform to their best all the time..your problem is that you can't accept that because your "fav hoss" then don't look like the really superior animal he used to be..so you have tried all ways up to try and make out he is. He has beat a 168 hoss 4 lengths..UDS is irrelevant as any sort of marker..he would eat ST on any past run..but he didn't on this occasion..most intelligent folk looking at the race would conclude that.

like i said..make your own mind up...if you think he is a 185/190 hoss again..fair play to you....but don't involve me in it any more...i've put across my view..so have others here..interesting though that you only show your arsey attitude towards me

i've wasted enough of my time on this..start aiming your posts towards someone else that will put up with your arsiness..i'm bored with it now..sorry about that

there is not one person on this forum who puts the time in i do to put a case forward..i've done enough in this instance to warrant not keep going over and over what to most folk is a simple race rating to apply on form + time.
 
God's Own ran a RPR of 166 (his best ever), 4lbs above his Arkle performance last year, and not at all unreasonable considering the slightly better ground. That also ties in with UDS running 4lbs below his pb, and ST equalling his.
All that gives a 176 RPR for SS - a stone below his best and perfectly reasonable assessment, imo, and as near to the mark as any other I've seen.
 
EC1 said:
yes..one horse ran below form in a zillion races..so what?

yes i was wrong that UDS didn't beat hosses he should have in a race...even without SS in the race..its not great beating ST a whisker..so were many other people wrong who actually backed him and made him the price he was...so what?..its one hoss in thosands..its no deal to me.

not really sure of your point though...everyone on this forum gets hosses wrong day in day out week in week out

but here is the difference..you want to pick one race where i was wrong..and highlight it..and keep on going on about it.... but your argument is flawed in this instance imo..SS isn't back to his very best..the simple fact is UDS has run to a 168 level,,,its called horse racing where many horses don't perform to their best all the time..your problem is that you can't accept that because your "fav hoss" then don't look like the really superior animal he used to be..so you have tried all ways up to try and make out he is. He has beat a 168 hoss 4 lengths..UDS is irrelevant as any sort of marker..he would eat ST on any past run..but he didn't on this occasion..most intelligent folk looking at the race would conclude that.

like i said..make your own mind up...if you think he is a 185/190 hoss again..fair play to you....but don't involve me in it any more...i've put across my view..so have others here..interesting though that you only show your arsey attitude towards me

i've wasted enough of my time on this..start aiming your posts towards someone else that will put up with your arsiness..i'm bored with it now..sorry about that

there is not one person on this forum who puts the time in i do to put a case forward..i've done enough in this instance to warrant not keep going over and over what to most folk is a simple race rating to apply on form + time.
Click to expand...

I never asked for your opinion .once again you expect to post and everyone to say you are right or you take the cream puff.

BTW Nico said yesterday "He is not far off the Sprinter from 2013" but what would he know he only rides him every day?

As for UDS's run being a simple fact you are talking through a hole in your backside.

It is your opinion nothing more.

My opinion is he was beaten by a far superior animal and Special Tiara has run the race of his life.

Special Tiara deserves more credit than you are prepared to give him.

He finished 3rd on slower ground last year.

He then on Good ground in April he beat Sprinter Sacre

On his return he runs down the park at Navan on very soft ground.

He then has another run on Good to soft ground at Sandown in the Tingle Creek

That was the tell tale race that should have told us Special Tiara could be a force to reckon with and the one that brings he and UDS together.

1. The Ground was against him

2. He jumped poorly down the back making mistakes at 3 of the 4 fences and losing the lead that is so precious to him

3. He's none to clever again getting too close at the pond fence and loses more ground and is joined by Vibrato Valtat on the turn for home.

4. He fights back looks like he's coming to win his race and Sire De Grugy accidentally jumps left and almost knocks him over at the last.

He is beaten by 3/4 length.

I think it would be fair to say had he jumped like he did at Cheltenham had better ground and not been almost knocked over he would have beaten Sire De Grugy by around 5 lengths perhaps? 5 lengths.



Special Tiara on that run plus changes in going and a clear round of jumping was perfectly entitled to finish upsides UDS.


You should also consider, that his run at Sandown in the Tingle Creek despite the errors etc showed a marked improvement on his previous meeting with Sire De Grugy

He improved a stone according to his OR from 2014 to 2015 but according to you it's impossible he has improved again.

Well Bully for you EC you are the man
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
BTW Nico said yesterday "He is not far off the Sprinter from 2013" but what would he know he only rides him every day?
Click to expand...

That's too vague a statement by which to set any store.

I said before the race last week:
I was just going to leave this race alone and enjoy it but will have a sentimental bet on Sprinter Sacre because if his reappearance win can be taken at face value he could just run away from Un De Sceaux.
Click to expand...

That was rating SS on his seasonal reappearance in the Schloer, arguably 'not far off' his best but still a good stone off his best. How does one quantify "not far"?

Did he mean 'not far off his best compared to how far off his best he's been for the last two seasons'?

In the big scheme of things it's almost meaningless.
 
this is like people telling us Cirrus was operating last year at the same level that when facing frankel
or Kauto at his best when winning his last Haydock gr1


Sprinter Sacre at his best would have beaten Special Tiara and gods Own out of sight and is way way behiond his best now
 
sunybay said:
this is like people telling us Cirrus was operating last year at the same level that when facing frankel
or Kauto at his best when winning his last Haydock gr1


Sprinter Sacre at his best would have beaten Special Tiara and gods Own out of sight and is way way behiond his best now
Click to expand...

Wise words for such a young man.
 
We make those sort of statements all the time without realizing what we are saying

To have won by 25 lengths on Wednesday he would have to have clocked a time, on ground no better than good, of about 3.43.40

No horse in history has clocked a time that fast and probably never will.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's too vague a statement by which to set any store.

I said before the race last week:


That was rating SS on his seasonal reappearance in the Schloer, arguably 'not far off' his best but still a good stone off his best. How does one quantify "not far"?

Did he mean 'not far off his best compared to how far off his best he's been for the last two seasons'?

In the big scheme of things it's almost meaningless.
Click to expand...

Obviously he was talking about the 2013 QMCC but I thought his Arkle performance was better tbh
 
Last edited:
SS in pomp beat CC an easy 7 lengths.

SS in pomp beat SE [172 at the time} by 19 len eased down with a hoss like Gods Own [Wishful Thinking] a further 6 lengths back in 3rd

either of those two runs..particularly the 2nd ..would be in another realm to beating ST by 4

if someone can't distinguish between beating ST by 4 and the other two performances..tbh..they are in the wrong game...its glaringly obvious which 2 performances are far and away in another league

to say last wednesday was the same performance as those two.. is doing the in pomp SS a grave misjustice imo
 
Last edited:
Tanlic said:
To have won by 25 lengths on Wednesday he would have to have clocked a time, on ground no better than good, of about 3.43.40

No horse in history has clocked a time that fast and probably never will.
Click to expand...

Why would he have to have won by 25 lengths? He was never rated 200. He got 175 for winning by 3.5 lengths. Purely mathematically, to get 194 he would need to have won by a further 17 lengths so the time you quote is fictional.

I'd say 3:45.7s under the new method of measuring. EC1 could probably give us a more accurate time. He said something about times now being something like 4 seconds faster anyway under the new method.

Cheltenham track record:

2m(C)(13) Edredon Bleu (15Mar00) 3m 44.70s

And EB’s career best OR was only 171, RPR 171. What might a 190+ horse have done to him that day?

Track records are more about conditions than ability, I know, but if EB could run that time that day why should it be impossible for SS to have run faster?
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham track record:

2m(C)(13) Edredon Bleu (15Mar00) 3m 44.70s

And EB’s career best OR was 171, RPR 171. What might a 190+ horse have done to him that day?
Click to expand...

Clocked a time of 3.39 and broke the sound barrier.....Sorry mate it doesn't work that way in reality.There's a limit to how fast a horse can go and Sprinter would have been bottomed out at the pace they went that day. Probably have won by 3 or 4 lengths but not by 20 lengths
 
EC1 said:
SS in pomp beat CC an easy 7 lengths.

SS in pomp beat SE [172 at the time} by 19 len eased down with a hoss like Gods Own [Wishful Thinking] a further 6 lengths back in 3rd

either of those two runs..particularly the 2nd ..would be in another realm to beating ST by 4

if someone can't distinguish between beating ST by 4 and the other two performances..tbh..they are in the wrong game...its glaringly obvious which 2 performances are far and away in another league

to say last wednesday was the same performance as those two.. is doing the in pomp SS a grave misjustice imo
Click to expand...


You deliberately forgot to mention Cue Card was rated 155 and had more or less given up running over 2 miles.

So Sprinter beat a 155 horse by 7 lengths in 2012 and that is better than beating 172 and 168 rated horse by 3 1/2 lengths.
 
Tanlic said:
Clocked a time of 3.39 and broke the sound barrier.....Sorry mate it doesn't work that way in reality.There's a limit to how fast a horse can go and Sprinter would have been bottomed out at the pace they went that day. Probably have won by 3 or 4 lengths but not by 20 lengths
Click to expand...

I quoted the official record.
 
Tanlic said:
There's a limit to how fast a horse can go and Sprinter would have been bottomed out at the pace they went that day. Probably have won by 3 or 4 lengths but not by 20 lengths
Click to expand...

UDS and ST are in the same ball park as EB. They couldn't bottom SS. And he was a shadow of his old self.
 
i'm loving how now you are trying to run down your favourite horse's best ever runs to suit your silliness Tanlic..class stuff this..i'd start reading what you are posting..its unreal

in a bit..the hoss that were 2nd to only Arkle 3 years ago ..will be nowt more than a mid 170's hoss

i'd stop now before you trash the brilliance of SS completely

stop digging man
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I quoted the official record.
Click to expand...

I knew what the record was and who holds it......that's where I got the time Sprinter would have to have done to win this years QMCC by 20 lengths.

You ask what would he have done to Erdon Bleu 170. If EB ran exactly that race Sprinter 191 would not have beat him by 21 lengths.That would be impossible for any horse to average that speed over 2 miles is what I meant.

That's pretty much whats happened here. The speed was too much for Sprinter and he took so much out of him he stopped on the run in.

I honestly think if the pace had been normal he would have won by much further and we would not be having this discussion.

There's a distinct possibility Nico is right and he's not a million miles off his best.........that could mean 10lbs but my argument is and will remain the same he is not 172 form 192 which has been suggested
 
just to add..CC wasn't really a 155 hoss going into that race was he?...before it he beat a 151 hoss 4 lengths giving 7..and the race after CC beat a 157 hoss 26 lengths..i know you struggle spotting improvent.. but come on

so..its fair to say when he beat CC in 2012..CC was something like a mid 160's to170 hoss in reality..ffs menorah was beaten into 3rd by 22 len in that Arkle when a 151 hoss..use a little left field thought eh?

i'd get me head round reading what each horse actually achieved in these races to be fair before pulling down CC + SS of old
 
Last edited:
Back
Top