Cheltenham 2018/2019

Another race that, to me, is emerging as a serious contest is the Fred Winter.

I always go high with this race because I think it's the hurdling equivalent of the Close Brothers in that it tends to be fought out by certain types that have been kept well under the radar. I also sometimes think you don't see the best of the principals again for another couple of seasons but so far that's just gut instinct talking; I don't have any stats to back up the claim.

This year's race is looking hot. On my figures, the Ballymore is working out faster than the Coral Cup and the FW is working out faster than the Ballymore.

I read somewhere that they went no pace in the Coral Cup but of the first ten home only Lil Rockerfeller in tenth got the comment 'prom' or closer to the pace. The rest were at best 'in tch' (Ballyandy) or 'midfield' and further back. The front two were probably just about second last and last at one point. Did they just do lesser rivals for toe off a slow pace? I doubt it but I'm happy to look at any evidence to the contrary.

In the Ballymore, the two leaders, Seddon and Valdieu ended up beaten nearly 30 lengths and 50 lengths respectively. Four of the first six were held up; Champ was 'in tch'. Sams Profile, a 9/1 shot so not unfancied, 'chsd ldrs' but was ultimately beaten 15 lengths.

There's about half a second on overall times between the two races with William Henry and Wicklow Brave carrying 3lbs and 5lbs more respectively than the Ballymore winner.

They looked solidly-run at the time and I'd argue that the foregoing supports the visual impression.

On my time ratings, the FW was faster than both those races with the winner carrying 11-8 (1lb more than City Island, 2lbs less than William Henry). As a 4yo, he'd have been getting at least 8lbs wfa in an open race. (I don't have the exact allowances to hand.)

I'll be following the FW form with interest but just wonder if the race will take a bit of getting over and it might be the 2021 festival before we see the form working out.

Slightly off at a tangent, one that caught my eye in the Ballymore as maybe being campaigned for next year's Coral Cup was Galvin. Just threatening to get into the race but unlikely to be seriously involved when blundering three out he was looked after from then on. He's probably a good 10lbs better than his 144OR and entitled to improve another 7-10lbs next season, so if they can get him back here off a similar mark in the Coral Cup he might be a very well-handicapped contender.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I watched the race again this evening with the sound turned off, which I often do just to eliminate any sense of sensationalism from commentators.

I haven't analysed the Thursday times yet but it looked to me like Frodon got quite a soft lead for a long way and was idling once he got to the front again after the last.

I accept I'm probably wrong because Frost's version is brilliant listening but I just wonder.
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I've now had a look at the times.

I think it's fair to say Siruh Du Lac went a good pace in his race with Lizzie Kelly saying later she didn't plan to go that fast but he just kept jumping away. The placed horses came from mid-division or further back too.

Over C&D, Frodon was 32lbs faster. Sirah Du Lac has been raised to 150 for its win.

I'm not suggesting Frodon is 32lbs better than that but I did have it down this season as well up to Gold Cup class (assuming it stayed, which I did).
 
I also have the Fred Winter as a really good race. The problem is it rarely work out in the future.

That said I suspect this season could be slightly different. The first three home are all very good. Band Of Outlaws would have won the Triumph, and won this giving the placed horses plenty of weight. If he stays fit he's going to be a serious horse. The doubt being the one you expressed Maurice. How long does it take for these juveniles to get over the race.

The other two to take out of the race are Fanfan Du Seuil (well backed on the day) who got blocked in his run and is better than his bare finishing position. But even more so Praeceps who finished sixth. They went a very strong gallop and all of those at towards the head of affairs fell away to be tailed off or pulled up (a number of fanicied horses couldn't go the gallop and were beaten down the hill), except Praeceps, who clearly did far too much off the strong gallop and was still good enough to be only beaten 7 lengths. He will go under the radar and is potentially very smart.

Praeceps ran against Fusil Raffles in the Adonis previously and was probably running for his mark for this that day, but it does beg the question how good Fusil Raffles is. On strict formlines FR will p*ss up at Aintree if he shows up.
 
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5th July seems ludicrously early despite my tongue in cheek comment.

I'm guessing we can expect a hike in membership this year too.
 
If you wish to back Annamix for the Arkle we will send the men in white coats round......Horse has an engine but his coordination is about -20. Surely cant be a worse jumper of hurdles under pressure, out there?
 
Tanlic said:
If you wish to back Annamix for the Arkle we will send the men in white coats round......Horse has an engine but his coordination is about -20. Surely cant be a worse jumper of hurdles under pressure, out there?
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What post were you referring to here Tanlic? I can't see one above that relates to it?
 
Just looked at tomorrow’s mares only card. Haven’t been so underwhelmed by a day’s racing at Cheltenham since ... oh yes last year’s mares only card. Surely they can do better. No problem with mares only races but a full card of them [emoji20]


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