Cheltenham 2018/2019

Watched replay of The Grand Annual just now.

Croco Bay set out in front at start. I'm not sure he was ever headed?!

A pundit talking to Nick Luck commented after the race that 'everything went right for Bun Doran', (what does this mean?), and that he was 'worried out of it', and that he did what he usually does, 'refusing to go past', etc.

I thought those comments were a pisstake really, given he's just ran the race of his life, bumping into one who was obviously plotted for the day for a very long time. He certainly got closer to Croco Bay than the other 20+ horses in the race.

I'm sure in the next season or two Bun Doran will be winning more races than Croco Bay anyway.

I got a great run for my money, very happy with the each way returns.
 
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Marble said:
A pundit talking to Nick Luck commented after the race that 'everything went right for Bun Doran', (what does this mean?), and that he was 'worried out of it', and that he did what he usually does, 'refusing to go past', etc.

I thought those comments were a pisstake really, given he's just ran the race of his life, bumping into one who was obviously plotted for the day for a very long time. He certainly got closer to Croco Bay than the other 20+ horses in the race.

I'm sure in the next season or two Bun Doran will be winning more races than Croco Bay anyway.

I got a great run for my money, very happy with the each way returns.
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It wasn't a pisstake, Marble. That's the way he is. He's a very good horse, improving (my figures will confirm this) and I'm sure has run the race of his life but he does have a habit of not going past anything in a fight to the line. He did it earlier in the season when I backed it.

Some horses don't like to be passed and will fight off a challenger (like Frodon). Others will get as close as they can but will let the other keep the lead because something in their DNA tells them not to.

The only way BD might win more in the next two seasons is obvious. CB is already 12yo and will go up a fair bit for this. They might have to start plotting now to get him back down to today's mark for next year.
 
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Maybe he was just beaten by a really good horse who was on a going day in Croco Bay?

Take the 66-1 poke out of the race, Bun Doran would have been a more than worthy winner.

The way that pundit talked about Bun Doran was like he was a dodgy greyhound, not like he'd just run his heart out over 2 miles at The Cheltenham Festival.

'Everything went right', this pundit says...

If having 90 percent of the field beat a mile from home and still getting chinned by a 66/1 shot is his idea of everything going right I'd like to know what his idea of everything going wrong is....haha... the cheeky swine. :)

I wonder what mr clever clogs backed in the race anyway.
 
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Have to say for me my best ever Festival. I'm never one to talk up my bets beforehand (so apologies to anyone who thinks im aftertiming!) but I managed the following:
Tuesday
Klassical Dream win
Beware the Bear e/w
Vintage Clouds e/w
Jerrysback e/w

Wednesday
City Island e/w
Santini e/w
William Henry e/w
Altior win
Tiger Roll win
Band of Outlaws win
Blue Sari e/w

Thursday
Defi du Seuil win antepost at 14s
Paisley Park win antepost at 15s
Any Second Now win

Friday
We Have a Dream e/w
Hazel Hill win
Brelan d'As e/w
Early Doors win

Of course I had plenty of other losing bets but I have finished well up (I literally bet with peanuts!) so all in all a great week!
 
Good going Jinny, well done. :)

I'm sure we''ll all be following you next year! :)
 
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Don't put yourself down haha, because with a strike rate like that, I'm sure I'm not the only one who would pay good money for your services. :)
 
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Steady! You'll have DOs blood pressure up again! Bad enough when I mentioned the thigh boots! :whistle:
 
granger said:
Yep. Presented the horse perfectly and he didn't find enough

Would be 99% certain, that ride was exactly what the instruction given would have been
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I had the reverse forecast which ameliorated an otherwise complete disaster of a day punting wise but in hindsight considering DdeP has won over 3 miles a bit of a surprise they did not kick on allowing a 2 miler to do him for toe from the last .
 
edgt said:
Pity you did not share your betting book on Tuesday, nice and all as it was to meet you.
Next year have duplicate slips written please !!!
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Well I did tell you I was on Beware the Bear and Vintage Clouds in that next race!! And to be honest I don't know what I am going to back that far in advance!! But yes it was good to meet you too!
 
Looking back very briefly across the week, one thing that occurred to me but I didn't dwell on it is that I wonder if the hours spent poring through the form were worth it. It's always nice to end the week in front but a lot of the winners struck me as not being obvious on form and more a case of understanding how trainers and connections think and operate.

I'm not sure I could abandon the form study because I like the mental challenge but three results in particular struck me.

The first was Concertista. It was entirely unfathomable in the book but it was nearly one of the best results I've had. That was down to being curious about the trainer's reason for running her in that race.

The second was Ch'tibello. Openly discussed on the forum as a possible non-trier in a few runs it wasn't unfathomable as such but it required faith that this was the target and there were clearly polarised views regarding what the ultimate target was. I eventually suspected the County was it but by then the big prices had gone so I looked elsewhere and hoped the plot would be foiled by another plot or two. I backed the second and third for that reason. Neither had the form in the book either.

The third was Early Doors. These Cheltenham handicaps take more winning than most big Saturday races. It has become almost impossible to train a horse 'honestly' and still win. Ch'tibello is a prime example of a horse not being trained and campaigned honestly. Skelton said he was told it had 10lbs in hand. That's not 10lbs in hand of its mark. That's 10lbs in hand of all the others that thought they had 10lbs in hand of their mark. Take Early Doors out of his race and nobody would have batted an eyelid at DDP smashing up a competitive field by 4L and 7L and more, backed into 7/2f. Yet Early Doors ran away from him giving him weight off 145. He's clearly shown he's a 160+ horse at home but not in the book yet he was backed in to 5/1, almost as strongly as the favourite.

Maybe next year I'll just save myself a lot of bother and just go with my gut.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Maybe next year I'll just save myself a lot of bother and just go with my gut.
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Best way.

I had a poor week. A few winners - A Plus Tard, Defi, Any Second Now, Klassical Dream but I got destroyed by the Championship races. Worst bet I placed was the 9s I got NRNB on Apples Jade. I kept topping up because I was so far ahead and the IR lays I put in were not matched. The Ryanair was a similar disaster. Monalee was held up and the cover I placed on Road to Respect (I had a small amount on him at 48 on the machine after the DRF) didn't work. Jesus, I had value coming out of my ears heading into the week - 33s on Ballyward, the aforementioned bets on Monalee, R2R and Apples and 12s on Santini. No dice.

The bet I had on Defi was a minimum and I was well into the hundreds on Monalee. It should have been the other way round. On the flat I look for uncompetitive conditions races. Examples:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/178/curragh/2018-07-21/707564

https://www.racingpost.com/results/93/windsor/2018-08-25/708205

Best winners I had all year. Competitive prices in wholly uncompetitive events. The JLT was a jumps example of those type of race - the Ryanair the polar opposite.
 
Not a lot went my way this week, but then my mains bets were several anti-post bets placed in February. Solomon Grey not declared for the Coral Cup meant I lost my stake money, Bun Doran placing covered all my anti-posts and little Yankees each day. Overall, in truth I didn't have many strong opinions apart from an each way bet here or there, maybe in 2020 there'll be better opportunities for me. I'm hoping Aintree might throw a few strong fancies my way.
 
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Marble said:
Thanks mate yeah I had Bun Doran for a four figure amount if he'd won. I had him at 20's so the each way returns are decent. Forest Bihan ran alright too!
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I had a few quid on Forest Bihan remembering how strong you were on him at Christmas-laid off in running at 4.1 to win a few quid.
 
That's good to hear, Luke. He ran a similar race to the last twice, up there most of the way, just lacking a bit at the business end. Re-Croco Bay, I haven't seen a 66/1 chance go out and make all like that in ages.

I wonder if they'll try and win a race over hurdles with Forest Bihan now, off a much lower mark.
 
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I didn't have the page from the RP with the race card for the last race so had to ask two guys near me, who turned out to be from Glasgow, which number Coolanly was. Anyway, after a bit of a discussion, as you do, they backed him at 25s e/w. I was mortified! He, Coolanly, didn't get one mention from the on course commentator all the way round. Not one. We could see where he was for most of the race, but didn't get called once. At the finish I said to one of them 'where did he come?' '8th I think' he said. It was only then they announced the result it came out that he had finished 5th. Whoever they had bet with it on line, paid for 5th place. Luckily they went home happy and promised to look at for Rowley when he next runs. (Named after a Scottish mountain also helped!)
My point, if I have one, is that it was their first day at the Festival and they had enjoyed it but could not believe how expensive refreshments etc were on the course, £3 for a can of coke they were charged, and the queues for everything, just too many people. It doesn't encourage people to come racing when you have paid a small fortune for the ticket in the first place.
 
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On course commentary on stayers was poor, he only seemed interested in Faugheen, when anyone with half an eye could see Paisley Park was mowing him down.
 
G-G said:
My point, if I have one, is that it was their first day at the Festival and they had enjoyed it but could not believe how expensive refreshments etc were on the course, £3 for a can of coke they were charged, and the queues for everything, just too many people. It doesn't encourage people to come racing when you have paid a small fortune for the ticket in the first place.
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It seems to me racecourses have always ripped off customers, especially at the big meetings.

Back in the day, I recall going down to Ascot for the King George won by Nashwan (I was the nutcase yelling home Cacoethes as I had a pound each-way on it or something like that).

First there was the rip-off entry fee. I can't remember how much exactly other than more than I'd anticipated and I'd anticipated expensive but I remember going to buy orange juices for my London-based brother, his partner, the brother who travelled down with me and myself. A very small glass of juice - and I mean small, only marginally bigger than a shot glass - cost £1 a pop. Back then a pint of beer was still under a quid in the pub.
 
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In fairness there is no real grab at any tea/ coffee outlet or Daly's sausage stand.
I presented my travel mug for hot water ( have speciality tea bags not available in Blighty) and was not charged once though i did of course leave a tip ( not Speaker Connolly luckily!!)
Our taxi man Paul,our house landlord Simon, the pubs and restaurants in town were equally decent with prices.
 
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