Cheltenham 2021/22

Beef or Salmon said:
Surely Adagio is the horse to take out of today, for a 4 year old to do that off top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the year is very interesting for sure.
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I was very impressed by the run. Genuinely not sure what you’d do with him though.

Im keeping an eye on both Quilixios and Echoes In Rain this season. Willie for last 2 years has had both Saldier and Aramon running like dogs before winning the Galway race in the summer.
 
Double J said:
I was very impressed by the run. Genuinely not sure what you’d do with him though.

Im keeping an eye on both Quilixios and Echoes In Rain this season. Willie for last 2 years has had both Saldier and Aramon running like dogs before winning the Galway race in the summer.
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Did that off 147, if we take it that you have to be 8-10lbs well in to win a graded handicap, we can at the very least put him on a mark of 153 for today, I would normally expect a 4 year old to improve between 10-14lb over the season, which again being conservative puts him on 163.

If you take Honeysuckle out of the equation there is very little else to be worried about, Sharjah is probably number two right now, I think 40/1 for the big one is very generous.

Maybe I'm mad but.....
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Did that off 147, if we take it that you have to be 8-10lbs well in to win a graded handicap, we can at the very least put him on a mark of 153 for today, I would normally expect a 4 year old to improve between 10-14lb over the season, which again being conservative puts him on 163.
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I was thinking about this after your previous post.

I work on a notional 10lbs improvement from 4-5 and I reckon the handicapper will put him up around 4-5lbs for today. I think you need to factor that into the anticipated improvement so he might only have another 5-6lbs more to come, probably not enough to win a major handicap and an eventual mark in the mid-high 150s wouldn't be anywhere near good enough for a Champion Hurdle.

Weak intermediate races might be the way to go, or even an early chasing career.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Did that off 147, if we take it that you have to be 8-10lbs well in to win a graded handicap, we can at the very least put him on a mark of 153 for today, I would normally expect a 4 year old to improve between 10-14lb over the season, which again being conservative puts him on 163.

If you take Honeysuckle out of the equation there is very little else to be worried about, Sharjah is probably number two right now, I think 40/1 for the big one is very generous.

Maybe I'm mad but.....
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Maybe a run out in the Christmas Hurdle, see how he gets on. Maybe thats what they’re thinking. I don’t believe he’s a Champion Hurdle horse though.
 
I very much agree with the previous two posts but just to be clear abou my angle here, outside of the wonder mare it's a rank division from what I can see.
 
If you like Adagio you have to like Monmiral even more after he laughed at Adagio at Aintree. He runs in the Fighting Fifth the weekend after next so we get to find out if the Champion Hurdle is realistic for them both.
 
Maruco said:
If you like Adagio you have to like Monmiral even more after he laughed at Adagio at Aintree. He runs in the Fighting Fifth the weekend after next so we get to find out if the Champion Hurdle is realistic for them both.
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Monmiral was a much fresher horse having missed the festival and Adagio was still there at the last where a bad mistake put paid to his chances. Do agree that Monmiral is of interest though both actually are entered in the fighting fifth, its highly unlikely that Adagio will be out again so soon, but as someone else poointed out, this is David Pipe we are talking about!
 
tiggers1972 said:
I read that Adagio is coming back to HQ for the International next month.
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8Apr21
Aintree (17GS, RPR 151)

Monmiral is a proper Grade 1 horse and the best juvenile I've sat on. I'd rather see him jump a fence (next season). He travels well and jumps great. He's probably beaten the best English juvenile; he's top class - Harry Cobden, rider. He's just kept on improving and getting stronger as the season has gone on and today I thought was the best he's looked. It's just hard for the novice chasers at five (years old) these days. They don't get much weight allowance in the spring and taking on the older horses in the spring is quite hard. If he had another year over hurdles it wouldn't do him any harm and then he could go novice chasing five into six. It might be nice to start him in something like the Fighting Fifth on a galloping track and then we'd know where we were going. It's something to think about over the summer - Paul Nicholls, trainer.
11/4 currently
 
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Beef or Salmon said:
Surely Adagio is the horse to take out of today, for a 4 year old to do that off top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the year is very interesting for sure.
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I sort of take an opposing view with Adagio, and the race generally. The fact a juvenile was top-weight (followed closely by a 10yo ex-chaser) puts a cap on the class of the race as far as I'm concerned, and it is not one I'll be going over-board about.

Everything about juveniles stepping into open company that applied before the Greatwood, still applies after it (imo), and I'd be looking to oppose Adagio when he steps up into graded company.

As for the winner, I'd be amazed if he isn't a poorly handicapped horse after this win.
 
They are all poorly handicapped. The nature of the handicap system ensures this.

Look at the entries for the Amlin or whatever it's called now at Ascot on Saturday. There's a Hendo horse entered called Pistol Whipped. This horse was beaten in successive handicap chases in Jan and Mar at Kempton and Newbury off 134 and 139 by Smarty Wild (where he went close) and Umbrigado. So you think yeah, this is his level. Mid late 130s horse.

Hendo then steps him down in grade in wins at Plumpton and Perth. He then gets beat a nose in a handicap chase at Uttoxeter. So, he's likely early 140s now right? I mean you can't rate gaff track handicap chases too highly. No, current mark is 153. Un ******* real
 
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Yeah I'm probably guilty of rating the race through Camprond who I had on a very high figure coming in, the reality is probably that that figure was wrong.

I see he is as short as 20/1 which is crazy, 40/1 with Padfy Power is a fair price I think.

Feck it anyway I think I'm after talking myself into backing the fcuker!!
 
Euronymous said:
They are all poorly handicapped. The nature of the handicap system ensures this.

Look at the entries for the Amlin or whatever it's called now at Ascot on Saturday. There's a Hendo horse entered called Pistol Whipped. This horse was beaten in successive handicap chases in Jan and Mar at Kempton and Newbury off 134 and 139 by Smarty Wild (where he went close) and Umbrigado. So you think yeah, this is his level. Mid late 130s horse.

Hendo then steps him down in grade in wins at Plumpton and Perth. He then gets beat a nose in a handicap chase at Uttoxeter. So, he's likely early 140s now right? I mean you can't rate gaff track handicap chases too highly. No, current mark is 153. Un ******* real
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I can't buy this, Euro.

Pistol Whipped has clearly just taken his form to a new level. He was always regarded as a horse of some potential.

If you were correct in your assertion, you would be backed up by RPRs (which are independent of BHA ratings) but they have PW on 160 and 159 for his last two runs.

RPRs have Adagio on 154 for the other day. That strikes me as pretty much as I would have anticipated (my own ratings tend to be on average about 5lbs higher than RPRs) and I reckon his new OR will be in the same ball park and would suggest the horse has next to no chance of making an impact in the Champion Hurdle come March.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't buy this, Euro.

Pistol Whipped has clearly just taken his form to a new level. He was always regarded as a horse of some potential.

If you were correct in your assertion, you would be backed up by RPRs (which are independent of BHA ratings) but they have PW on 160 and 159 for his last two runs.
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It's gaff track form. Not having it

Kap Auteuil is another example of this sort of reckless raising of a horse's mark after it wins nonsense races at places like Fakenham and Stratford. They go up so much it means they can take on better horses at Grade 1 tracks and of course they get beat.

Pistol Whipped is rated 2lbs shy of Itchy Feet. This is nonsense

Remember last year when Dolos went into the Peterborough actually rated superior to Mister Fisher.

Or the daddy of them all, the 2011 Champion Chase when that awesome handicapper Woolcome Folly, yes Woolcome Folly, went into that renewal of a great race RATED NINE POUNDS SUPERIOR TO SIZING EUROPE.

Handicappers are stealing a living
 
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Woolcombe Folly's initial hike to 169 (from 154) was probably a tad too much but, at the time he was a fast-improving 7yo second-season chaser and entitled to a rating of at least 164 for spreadeagling a decent field at that gaff track Cheltenham, with a TS figure of 168. I can't think of any other mid-150s horse before or since to achieve that kind of Topspeed rating. He never hit that level of form again and the chances are the performance soured him.

Sizing Europe was kept somewhat under the radar since winning the Arkle and never given the chance to earn a higher rating. It doesn't mean their respective ratings were wrong based on what they had done on the track.
 
As a general rule-of-thumb, if a horse is never able to get close to repeating a rating, then I tend to think the rating was probably wrong. The higher the class of race/horse, the less I tend to apply this rule-of-thumb.

I’m sort of with Euro on this one. I dunno about ‘gaff tracks’, but there’s a window between April and October where I find that the form is over-rated, and leaves horses facing tasks that are beyond their inherent ability, during the core part of the season.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I’m sort of with Euro on this one. I dunno about ‘gaff tracks’, but there’s a window between April and October where I find that the form is over-rated, and leaves horses facing tasks that are beyond their inherent ability, during the core part of the season.
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Is the form really over-rated, though, or is it that horses run better at that time of the year (feeling better within themselves, with the sun on their back, etc) or on the better ground and can't reproduce it after a cold, wet winter.

Or could it be that running well in the summer puts their mark up to the point where they struggle to compete?

I can see the sense in doubting form that seems too good to be true (and usually annotate it accordingly, eg Galice Macalo going into the Greatwood) but I wouldn't ignore the possible impact of a hard race on a season or even a career and even allowed it put me off Midnight Shadow on Saturday.
 
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National Hunt races between April and October - with the exception of Aintree and Punchestown - are much less competitive than races run during the core season……..but are handicapped as if they’re of equal merit.

For me, it’s almost certainly a case of them being over-rated in poor races during the summer, which makes them uncompetitive during the core season - which is pretty-much Euro’s position as I interpret it.
 
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Grasshopper said:
National Hunt races between April and October - with the exception of Aintree and Punchestown - are much less competitive than races run during the core season……..but are handicapped as if they’re of equal merit.
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Some years ago I experimented with lower ratings for April-October races and ended up being forced to abandon it as the evidence was telling me I was under-rating the form.
 
Just done logging up my figures for the PP last Saturday.

For now, I am going high with my ratings because they make more sense doing that than viewing the race as a normal Saturday handicap.

I'm very confident the form will stand up but it remains to be seen what races the runners target going forward.

Obviously quite a few will target what used to be the Massey-Ferguson at the December meeting but I also reckon some of the runners here had a hardish race.

Midnight Shadow has been raised 7lbs and in my book remains well enough handicapped to win a normal Class 2 Saturday handicap. I imagine, though, a couple of runs down the park will ensue with a view to getting him to the festival close to last Saturday's mark.

Protektorat is up 4lb so, given the ground and momentum MS lost at the last, they are weighted to dead-heat next time.

Lalor (+2) has a decent Saturday handicap at his mercy. Dostal Phil (+1) likewise.

The next seven to finish, all dropped by the handicapper, will interest me greatly in their coming races. I reckon because of their finishing positions here they will be longer than they should be and, in a couple of cases, a change of tactics or better luck will see them in a completely different light.

It's certainly whetted my appetite for the next big Saturday handicaps.

Now for the Greatwood...
 
Greatwood

Not such obviously strong form but almost certain to be better than my provisional ratings.

JP usually sends a trier or two for this race and both No Ordinary Joe and Camprond have run well, the former pulling strongly for most of the way and probably much better than his finishing position. West Cork might just have got lucky in that respect.

I spread my cash across a few in the race, one of them being Tritonic, and I was never quite that happy with the tactical ride he got. I now see the trainer is saying the race will set him up nicely for Ascot in December. He never mentioned that ahead of last weekend's race but I've only just checked his column to see what he had said in the light of this week's comment.

I knew my fate with Ballyandy by the time they got to the second hurdle. It wasn't off an inch. Jumped off prominently, STD appeared at pains to ensure he was in rear by then and he never threatened thereafter. They're clearly plotting up something big with him, maybe the Schweppes already.

I've rated Adagio a winner of a normal Class 2 Saturday TV handicap but have put a large + above the ratings column to remind me to allow a few notional extra pounds the next time they run. Effectively all this means is that I strongly suspect the form is better than I'm currently rating it but I don't know by how much. Maybe as future form unfolds I'll be in a better position to quantify it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Midnight Shadow has been raised 7lbs and in my book remains well enough handicapped to win a normal Class 2 Saturday handicap. I imagine, though, a couple of runs down the park will ensue with a view to getting him to the festival close to last Saturday's mark.
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He'll need to be half a stone below Saturday's mark when he's up against Irish novices at the Festival. He crawled over the line and goes up 7lbs - ridiculous.
 
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