granger
Senior Jockey
Did you see the Tom Segal quote last week about the ground being the least important part of any form analysis
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Cheltenham 2027
- Thread starter JamesRB
- Start date
Slim
Rookie
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2019
- Messages
- 4,754
Mother of f$%^ing God.
granger
Senior Jockey
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Paddy is staying over timber.
Had £5 credit to use up with PP
So I put it on
Champion Hurdle - Alexie 20/1 £2.50
Brown - King Rasko Grey 20/1 £2 50
Only to learn that Mullins thinks KRG is a Champion Hurdle horse at this stage.
So I have also had £2.75 cash
, on
King Rasko Grey 16/1 (WH) for the Champion Hurdle
So I put it on
Champion Hurdle - Alexie 20/1 £2.50
Brown - King Rasko Grey 20/1 £2 50
Only to learn that Mullins thinks KRG is a Champion Hurdle horse at this stage.
So I have also had £2.75 cash
, onKing Rasko Grey 16/1 (WH) for the Champion Hurdle
Each way in races like the Gold Cup (where field unlikely to be small) is a bad idea this far out using simple maths. If you say Final Demand is Evs to run, then for win part you'd be expecting him to be 7/1 after final decs on average in order for 16/1 to be any value. You'd need him to be Evs to place top 3 which would imply a win price of ~3/1 on average which is outrageously optimistic.
Fair point, but life is not all about maths
. Although my wife accuses of me off having no jeopardy in mine (lol). No if I were not attempting to win the same amount on each horse I backed in a race, and had not got a free bet that I had to use up, I would agree with you.
