Cheltenham Ante Post Portfolio

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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SlimChance said:
I thought you were against MTOY?
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I am - but my logical side couldn't stand up to the stress of watching a horse so far ahead in the ratings hack up without having a few quid on. Something tells me he will get done but he is the best horse in the race and possibly by some way. He was the obvious one to put in with Simonsig as already am very deep on Pont Alexandre and have cover in other multis with Jezki.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah I have that double, only small though at 20s and evs.

For Non Stop is the best value left in any graded race at this point.
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FNS wouldn't stay the RyanAir on a bus. Didn't last home in the Jewson, and this is a much better race, over a furlong further.
Few seem to appreciate there's around a stone difference between novice races and full-blown graded contests, and there's little doubt in my mind that MTOY is one of the most underbet horses of the Festival for that very reason.
 
I had a super yankee on just in case. Would need Buddha God and Zues to lend a hand to pull it off but it's all fun.

Long Run, Far West, Grandouet, Taquin Du Seuil and Monkland

104.00 pounds (26 bets of 4.00)

All win + 121,714.00

4 win approx + 15014.00

3 win approx + 1714.00

2 win approx + 106.00

0-1 wins and you get what you have in your head which is what you deserve for placing such a silly bet in the first place :cool:
 
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reet hard said:
FNS wouldn't stay the RyanAir on a bus. Didn't last home in the Jewson, and this is a much better race, over a furlong further.
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The Jewson form isn't the reason he's a great each way bet at 20s. He'd had a busy year last season as a novice and that looked a race too far for him. His run in the Roan indicated that he'd improved during the summer and he's overpriced.
 
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Euronymous said:
The Jewson form isn't the reason he's a great each way bet at 20s. He'd had a busy year last season as a novice and that looked a race too far for him. His run in the Roan indicated that he'd improved during the summer and he's overpriced.
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Only one run (a win) in 2012 prior to the Jewson. I would be concerned that to show his best - which even then might not be good enough - he wants genuinely quick ground and a sharper track. Add to that his win record is pretty disappointing. I can understand people searching around in the Ryanair but not sure this is the answer.
 
Just about the final batch:-

Grand Annual - Petit Robin 20/1 - if he can translate his hurdles runs must have a solid chance.

Novices Handicap - The Druids Nephew 14/1 - decent form chance and should improve jumping left-handed - rain a major concern.

Gold Cup - Sir Des Champs 4/1 - although Bobs Worth still the one to beat having backed him at the last two Festivals couldn't risk him winning unsupported - very surprised if one of the front two doesn't win.

Byrne Group - Vino Griego 12/1 - has had a massive hike but no less impressive than Ballynagour and that was Course form. Rain will help him and perhaps raise a few stamina doubts should the Pipe horse run here.

County Hurdle - Cotton Mill 10/1 - still clinging to the hope that he will go Champion Hurdle but fair chance he can outclass this field - another one hoping rain will stay away.

Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre 1/1 - Coral offer appears the closest thing I can remember to just handing out £20 notes.

Cross Country - Shalimar Fromentro 20/1 - just to keep me awake - young and progressive so probably completely the wrong profile - Reveley's experience should be an asset.

Looks as if it will be no bets in either the Arkle or Champion Hurdle. Can't see the point of the each-way in the Arkle as nothing looks nailed on to place and barring accidents the win part looks pretty unlikely. Rock On Ruby would be value in a good ground Champion Hurdle but chances are it will be at least good to soft and possibly worse.
 
added

long run 10/1 gold cup
sprinter sacre evens queen mum
gevrey chambertin martin pipe hurdle 8/1

all NRNB
 
treetangle said:
Only one run (a win) in 2012 prior to the Jewson. I would be concerned that to show his best - which even then might not be good enough - he wants genuinely quick ground and a sharper track. Add to that his win record is pretty disappointing. I can understand people searching around in the Ryanair but not sure this is the answer.
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I'm not certain he's a big fan of Cheltenham myself but he is a different animal this season and even in the Amlin he ran on quite well towards the end of the race - in no way was his performance as bad a Finian's Rainbow. I think his last race was one too many on deep ground. He's certainly a sporting bet at 20s.
 
Melodic rendezvous ~supreme-10/1 £25e/w (1,2,3)

Melodic rendezvous 10's -Grandouet 6's-une artiste 11/2 12.50 e/way treble free bet off Hills.
Mater of the sea 12/1 coral cup 15 e/w

Oscar whiskey 15 e/w world hurdle 6/1 hills offer.Dont really fancy it but the price was calling me.
 
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Marble said:
Sir Des Champs 4/1 Gold Cup
Riverside Theatre 7/1 Ryanair Chase

150 win double
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I also did a 10 quid win lucky 15 (150 stake) a few months ago, two losers in it already in micky mouse races which i should have never bet in, but I have two left: They are Get Me Out Of Here at 16's, and a sporting bet/chance with Sizing Europe at 6's for the Champion Chase. Hoping GMOOH can win to get my stake back plus a bit more, and hope Sizing can pull off the miracle needed to turn in a real profit, but not expecting anything...

Thats all I have so far, didn't really fancy much else bar one or two in the handicaps which I might have a flutter with on the day. I take my hat off to many on here who have done well with their portfolios. Well done.
 
Loads of opportunities for e/w multis on the first day. The Arkle and mares hurdle are bad e/w, the Supreme will have an extra place with some firms and the Champion Hurdle is likely to be the dead 8 runners. Add in soft ground ruling out a lot of falsely priced horses and you'll be struggling not to strike a clever e/w L15 with so many things in your favour.
 
£5 Each-Way Canadian

Solwhit 9/1 (Stayers)
Ballynagour 9/2 (Byrne Group)
Fiveforthree 14/1 (Coral)
Rody 10/1 (Grand Annual)
Goulanes 8/1 (RSA)

That should be it for me before kick-off.
 
A few bets I have done, just looking today to see if they are still alive,and surprisingly they are.

Straight Accum

Sir des Champs Hennessey WON 11/8
Sir Des Champs Gold Cup 9/2
Quevega Mares Hurdle 4/7
Sprinter Sacre QM 2/5

Then I have the following,

Doubles, Trebles, Fourfolds and accum

Our Conor @ 4/1 Triumph Hurdle Now 7/2
Unioniste @ 9/1 RSA Chase Now 7/2
Megalypos @ 14/1 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle Now 11/1
Pendra @ 12/1 Coral Cup now 7/1 (hope wonderful charm goes elsewhere)
White Star Line @ 14/1 PLI Novices H'cap Chase

The fact that fingers crossed they are all still on track to their races and shorter in the market is already a victory for me. Touch wood.

Dynaste and Ponte Alexander double 11/1
Hurricane Fly and Sir Des Champs double 16/1

Singles on;
Megalypos @ 14/1 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle Now 11/1
Pendra @ 12/1 Coral Cup now 7/1 (hope wonderful charm goes elsewhere)
White Star Line @ 14/1 PLI Novices H'cap Chase
 
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Probably final batch:-

Went in for Loch Ba (16/1) and Two Rockers (25/1) again.

Kim Muir - Rose Of The Moon 33/1 - if you can ignore the last run has some decent Cheltenham form.

World Hurdle - Cross Kennon 66/1 - probably very optimistic but doubts about everything and stable has hit a little bit of form.
 
Just thrown a fiver yank on CF today, Lord Windermere, Pont Alexandre and for some reason selected Sir Des Champs in the GC when I meant to do Silviano Conti....
 
Had a big bet ion Ut Atout at 4/1 ew without MTOY. If he's half as good as Davy Russell says he is he looks like a bet to nothing. 1/4 odds guarantees your money back or better if in the first 4
 
Took advantage (hopefully) of Ladbrokes favourites offer yesterday and backed Simonsig (1/1), Quevega (1/1), Dynaste (3/1) and Gevrey Chambertin (7/1). Of course Dynaste could blow out again but if he doesn't he is the likely winner.

Also added Ifandbutwhynot (16/1) in the County and Kalmann (10/1) in the Fred Winter.
 
DukeofMarmalade said:
Unfortunately it isn't any race, when you go on Skybet it's Quevega World Hurdle, Flemenstar Gold Cup.
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even though it said quevega world hurdle (which i initially didn't spot when i did the bet) i only just found out it settled my small bet on hurricane & quevega to win at 25/1 as a winner. :ninja:
 
SlimChance said:
Really good threads lads! Post final P/L on your ante post portfolio too.
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I'm going to permit myself some crowing/back-slapping.

Final P&L after all exes deducted was a shade over twelve bags.

Safe to say it was my most profitable Festival in the twenty-two years I've been launching arrows at the b*stard. :cool:
 
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