Cheltenham Day 1

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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Supreme: Not keen on any of the Mullins horses at the top of the market or Marine Nationale.
Impaire Et Passe on the long term will prove to his best horse from the current crop of novices. However things could happen too fast for him if they decide to run him here, he would be better off going for the Ballymore IMO.
We get so used to the Irish raids we can forget that we have some decent novices at home.

PN's Tahmuras and Nicky's Luccia dutched to keep the prize at home.

Arkle Trophy: This looks a very competitive renewal and may not be the 2horse race the betting suggets.
I stand by what I have said in the past the no way will El Fabiolo outstay Jonbon up the Cheltenham Hill.
I have serious dobts about the Aintree race as I suspect Jonbon was over the top or he would have beaten El Fabiolo much easier.

Jonbon for me but Banbridge could spring a surprise despite his last run.


Ultima: Very difficult race to get my head around but I'll have ane EW interest on PN's Threeunderthrufive if he runs.
and a win bet on Jonjo's Monbeg Genius. I reckon the latter will take alot of beating.

The Champion Hurdle. This for me is what will finish 2nd to Constitution Hill who I am balls deep in?
They would have to be mad to try and beat Constitution Hill with State Man. There only chance is to try and take the sting out of his tail and make the running.
That however could spell disaster for him and could end up exhausted and end up losing 2nd place.
I like To Move It ran agreat race from the front to win the Greatwood off top weight but his intention for the Champion Hurdle might have been excersied at Wincanton whe held up he hacked up.
He stays very well and if held up he could just outrun State Man for 2nd in the closing stages
FC Constitution Hill and I Like To Move It looks worth a bet.

The Mares Hurdle: What a treat we are in for it's almost like a Champion Hirdle replay with Honeysuckle V Epatante once again.
Nicky's not going to run Marie's Rock here by the looks of things but time will tell.
I think Honeysuckle may have regressed more than Epatante has and the trip with suit Nicky's mare better,
Already have her in a couple of bets for this so won't be having another.

Epatante

Boodle Juvenile : Not one of these young hurdlers has had me jumping out of my seat.Not a betteing race for me.
If Tekao is very shorton the day I will place lay him

Telao Place Lay 3 places


National Hunt Challenge Cup

Gaillard Du Mesnil has had more places than set at a national convention dinner table.

That said of he can't win this Mullins should hand in his licence,

Banker of the metting for many.

Gaillard Du Mesnil
 
Tanlic, there a high-percentage chance that Luccia will be kept for the Mares Novice…..unless you have any yard insight you might care to ahare with the rest of us?

Kevin Blake all but confirmed last night that Banbridge will run in the Turners.

FWIW, here’s where I’ve landed on Day One.

Supreme
Il Etait Temps with ew saver on Doctor Bravo.

Arkle
Yet to decide, but have swung back towards Jonbon for the time being. Will probably wait for final deca before betting.

Ultima
Main bets are Corach Rambler and Lord Accord (latter needs some help to get in)
Castle Robin and Tea Clipper as each-way savers.

Champion Hurdle
All-in Constitution Hill.

Mares
Love Envoi and will probably dutch with Echoes In Rain.

Boodles
Token bet on Cougar.

NH Chase
Gaillaird Du Mesnil doubled with Luccia in Mares Novice.
 
Tanlic said:
A win bet on Jonjo's Monbeg Genius. I reckon the latter will take alot of beating.
Click to expand...

I saw a quote off Jonjo yesterday saying this horse might want a bit of cut in the ground for him to run. I hope he runs as I like his chance.
 
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SUPREME:
I've no bet in this, can't see an angle at the front of the market. The Pumpkin horse is interesting in that he's won this with similar sub-pacey horses in the past. If he's double figures on the day and four places are available he might be one for some ew multis.

ARKLE:
Dysart Dynamo has claims and is a good back to lay proposition. I couldn't pick between the front two.

ULTIMA:
Was discussing this race with someone on Twitter yesterday. I hate it, so many bad memories...Maljimar, Singlefarmpayment, not backing Golden Chieftain despite being on him twice that season. I don't look at this race nowadays.

CHAMPION HURDLE:
Hope CH wins by the length of the straight.

MARES:
Brandy Love is a nice price for this. I have her at 10s ante-post and also in a roll-over from my NFL bets. I wasn't disappointed with her at Fairyhouse - Willie isn't interested in Grade 2's in late February - she'll be primed for this, it's the right way around and she likely has a couple of 9yos and a Harry Fry that hasn't run since early Jan to beat. Marie's Rock a danger if they see sense and avoid the Stayers.

No interest in the Fred Winter or NHC.
 
Supreme - as a few have said, no stand-out this season. I’ll do a couple of EWs and a forecast; see who Townend rides too.

Arkle - Jonbon is in a few of my AP multies, so will look for an EW on that day

Ultima - Lifetime Ambition brings form to the race, but weight too.

CH - I like Tanlic’s angle on this one, and will keeps stakes to a minimum.

Mares - Between Love Envoi and Brandy Love, but only if Marie’s Rock goes to the stayers. TellmesomethingGirl as an EW interest.

Boodles - not much study of this, and I have a very poor record in this. Early thoughts are Common Practice.

NH Chase - Mister Coffey to chase home GDM.

I will refer back to this post on Day 1 itself and back the SuperHeinz!
 
Tuesday

Supreme - Marine Nationale will pretty much pay for my week having been with him since September and while I’d normally start doubting my position, he’s still my strongest fancy. Respect the Mullins pair, especially Il Etait Temps who looks like treading an uncommon path of Triumph then Supreme but I hadn’t realised how well he did in the Triumph last year considering he pulled like a train the whole way

Arkle - Jonbon and I was one who was actually impressed with him LTO. Calico (GER) is no mug and Skelton does what he does, nearly catching Coleman out. He didn’t panic though and in the end won comfortably conceding 5lb. I’d much prefer that than to have seen him canter to a bloodless victory. El Fabiolo is worthy opposition.

Ultima - Possibly my favourite race of the meeting and I was taking 16/1 about Corach Rambler as soon as the entries came out. I backed him last year and had all but torn up my (digital) slip. He’s often held up but having missed the start he was so far back that to win as he did demonstrated that 6lb increase this year wouldn’t be enough to stop him. I liked his run at Newbury and very keen. Nassalam has looked like a horse who’ll enjoy the step up so he’d be my main danger but some horses often look like they’re in need of a distance increase but just doesn’t work out that way. I like Lord Accord too as CD winner at the October meeting and he wouldn’t be the first horse to win at the festival having had an obvious sighter in the Cleeve.

Champion Hurdle - Had as much as I can on the 11/10 SF Constitution Hill, State Man. Also had some AP bets on CH start of the season but they won’t make me rich.

Mares - Maries Rock wins if she goes here. If not then it’s open and agree with Euro that Brandy Love probably offers the value. The optimist in me hopes they switch Telmesomethinggirl back to hurdles (hasn’t done much over fences) as she owes me from last year but with Honeysuckle running here that’s probably unlikely.

Boodles - Nusret would be my idea of the winner but Jacob’s comments after the Adonis bothered me when he said he’s better right handed, despite the decent enough run in the Knight Frank at Leopardstown. I’d also be worried that the weights are likely to rise and see Tekao carry top weight which would leave Nusret on 11-8 and while I know it’s all relative, they’re young horses.

NH Chase - Been on Gaillard Du Mesnil since after the Irish Nash and not changed my mind but exactly the same thing happened last year with Run Wild Fred :(. Also wouldn’t surprise me if Willie switched him for another attempt at the Brown Advisory. Though hopefully Patrick will get his way.
 
Supreme: No bet yet and will probably leave until the day. If I had to bet today Il Etait Temps would probably be the one

Arkle: Jonbon for me + Saint Roi at a decent price each way. Thought the latter was Grand Annual bound but read a comment from WPM yesterday that made me think he’s more likely to line up here

Ultimate: I like Monbeg Genius here but will wait for the day

Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill obviously. Not convinced State Man will follow him home so ILTM will do for me. I backed Honeysuckle to do that but that’s in the bin now

Mares: Epatante

Boodles: Perseus Way would surely have won the Adonis but for walking through the last and has Cheltenham experience so will do for me. I’ve an abysmal record in this race so imagine he’ll be tailed off by about halfway

NHC: GDM miles better than the rest here but couldn’t bring myself to back him at 5/4. Will look for some each way value on the day


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I need Facile Vega to win for my little ew treble a/p
Facile 4/1
CH 2/1
Stattler 20/1

If impaire et passe runs in this I will back it.

Arkle saint ROI 25/1 taken.
Ultima Fortescue 40/1
Champion hurdle CH how far.
Boodles did Risk belle a/p and I like Bo Zenith (gary moore) beat Blood Destiny in france.
Nh chase. Mister coffey to chase home the favourite.
 
Supreme - Not strong on anything, think it may work out a really poor poor renewal. The best novice is running in the Ballymore. Chancing High Definition with a token bet.

Arkle - Been on Dysart all year at much bigger prices, I have get out options but will most likely let them run and heart will rule head and Ill back again.

Ultima - Into Overdrive, will be a nice bet on this.

Champ Hurdle - CH wins

Mares - Backed Brandy Love in multis early year, a trappy race, was liking Love Envoi but wondering if ground may be too quick. Will see on the day.

Boodles - Tekao wins. People over thinking this. 135 wont stop him. One of my biggest bets it’ll be.

NH Chase - GDM is obvious and in so many multis. Doesn’t win often enough though for my liking. Will cover on the day when I seen field.
 
Looking at this thread Facile Vega could go off double figure price! I haven't lost faith and see it as a match between himself and the O'Connell horse.
 
Mc tigue runs in the morebattle on sat and if it wins it will try for the bonus in the Boodles off topweight where it wont have to carry a penalty as it's already topweight.
Big ask but it is Emmet Mullins.
 
Outsider said:
Mc tigue runs in the morebattle on sat and if it wins it will try for the bonus in the Boodles off topweight where it wont have to carry a penalty as it's already topweight.
Big ask but it is Emmet Mullins.
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Careful with that, Outsider. I’m told he’ll get a 12lb allowance in the Conditionals race being a 4yo, and that it could be the target if he wins the Morebattle. Source is usually well informed.
 
Grasshopper said:
Careful with that, Outsider. I’m told he’ll get a 12lb allowance in the Conditionals race being a 4yo, and that it could be the target if he wins the Morebattle. Source is usually well informed.
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Interesting.i was going on what Emmet Mullins said.
If he got a 5lb penalty for the M.pipe it would give him a mark of 147 which is too high(0 -145) or wouldnt that count.
 
Grasshopper said:
Tanlic, there a high-percentage chance that Luccia will be kept for the Mares Novice…..unless you have any yard insight you might care to ahare with the rest of us?

Kevin Blake all but confirmed last night that Banbridge will run in the Turners.

.
Click to expand...

Hadn't got as far, in fact hadn't even looked at the Mares Novice but not a problem. I haven't struck any bets that are not on my Ante post list.
I already have bets on both Facile Vega and Tahmuras ante post so I will leave the race alone and let them run. I backed Tamuras and the next day he drifted to 16/1 so I backed him again still think he's huge at 10/1 currently.
I think Willie is a mile off the mark with Facile Vega like he was with Melon when he was hailing him as a world beater but time will tell.


I live in hope I am wrong and Facile Vega wins as I have a sizeable double with him and Constitution Hill @11/1 would be nice but I can't see it.

Don't much care where Banbridge runs I backed Jonbon along time ago at 14/1......That said I also had him in a double with Alloha which has gone down the swannie and that donkey..what's it's name again..shisky or something?:lol: will win that race anyway..

Like you my main bet is Constitution Hill who I have so much ridng on I am loosing sleep.I kid you not. Then if he does win I have a 20/1 double with him and Galopin Des Champs
which will keep me up for another 3 days and nights. So as I say Banbrige is the least of my worries.My main worry is you might jinx Constitution Hill you being the worlds worst tipster:lol:
 
Outsider said:
Interesting.i was going on what Emmet Mullins said.
If he got a 5lb penalty for the M.pipe it would give him a mark of 147 which is too high(0 -145) or wouldnt that count.
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Honestly not sure - just passing on what I was told. Maybe a winning penalty is applied after other allowances have been deducted?
 
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Outsider, I'm (hopefully) reliably informed that a 5lb penalty for the Morebattle would not exclude McTigue from going in the Pipe race.
 
Outsider said:
Interesting.i was going on what Emmet Mullins said.
If he got a 5lb penalty for the M.pipe it would give him a mark of 147 which is too high(0 -145) or wouldnt that count.
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This a recent quote from the trainer.

"We’ll get the Morebattle out of the way first but we’ve a few different options. I don’t think the weight for age scale works to our advantage in England, in Ireland you run off the weight you’re allotted while it counts against us here in that sense, which might narrow our options. He’s got top-weight in the Boodles but if he wins the Morebattle he won’t carry a penalty because you can’t carry more than 11st 12lbs in a race – so that’s another angle for him as well. He was a good two year old on the Flat for Jim Bolger so he’s always been precocious in his own right and he’s taken to the jumps very well.”

HTH
 
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Grasshopper said:
Tanlic, there a high-percentage chance that Luccia will be kept for the Mares Novice…..unless you have any yard insight you might care to ahare with the rest of us?

.
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Little twist in the tale? Under Control was very impressive today beating what was put in front of her. Luccia's 11st.7lbs stable companion she's got 10st6lbs to carry if she goes.

Hills just cut her from 33/1 to 12/1 and no doubt Nicky and Frank will be discussing it and reporting back to JP.
 
Tanlic said:
Little twist in the tale? Under Control was very impressive today beating what was put in front of her. Luccia's 11st.7lbs stable companion she's got 10st6lbs to carry if she goes.

Hills just cut her from 33/1 to 12/1 and no doubt Nicky and Frank will be discussing it and reporting back to JP.
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Aintree by sound of what trainer said after the race.
 
wilsonl said:
Tuesday....Boodles - Nusret would be my idea of the winner but Jacob’s comments after the Adonis bothered me when he said he’s better right-handed, despite the decent enough run in the Knight Frank at Leopardstown. I’d also be worried that the weights are likely to rise and see Tekao carry top weight which would leave Nusret on 11-8 and while I know it’s all relative, they’re young horses.
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https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...aff=1197317997&dcmp=SL_TWITTER_DarylJacob0108
 
I was tried 5 times to back Matata on Betfair nor for the fun of it than anything but kept getting a message "There was a problem placing your bet" Turned out the site went down.

Was sick as a parrot when I saw how easily he won.

Would love to see him turn up at Cheltemham or Aintree......really exciting horse to watch because he's mad as a hatter but could be anything
 
I like THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE in the Ultima but PN is 0/25 in the race and 2009 was the last time it was placed.
In his stable report he says it's still 5lb to high in the weights and the Scottish national is its probable target.
It is owned by the sponsors of the ultima.
 
Outsider said:
I like THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE in the Ultima but PN is 0/25 in the race and 2009 was the last time it was placed.
In his stable report he says it's still 5lb to high in the weights and the Scottish national is its probable target.
It is owned by the sponsors of the ultima.
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The Jockey is a 5Lb penalty too, one of the worst to present a horse at fencel...
 
Maxbet said:
The Jockey is a 5Lb penalty too, one of the worst to present a horse at fencel...
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Absolutely insane how they have horses with the best trainers with top quality stable jockeys and then put Heskin on. He's nowhere near good enough for the level they aspire to be at.

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Can't all be Ruby Walsh

Owners privelage and you have to allow for the fact he will have known the McNeils a long time.

Done it myself when I asked jonjo to replace Mark Dwyer with John Quinn back in the day who was a close friend.

If the horse is good enough Heskin isn't the worst around and has a decent strike rate so he's no where near as bad as you guys are making out.
 
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