Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 2

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
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DAY 2 March 14, 2012

NH Steeplechase Challenge Cup 4m
Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.

No Selection

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for those prominent in the betting. 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 20 winners.

Shortlist:

Simonsig 6
Boston Bob 7
Batonnier 6
Monksland 5

Selections:
1) Simonsig 2) Boston Bob 3) Batonnier e.w. 4) Monksland


Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7yos and 8yos are best for this (winning 16 of the past 20). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types.

Shortlist:
Grands Crus ? 7
Bob’s Worth 7
Sir Des Champs ? 6
Join Together 7
Bog Warrior 8
First Lieutenant 7
Silviniaco Conti 6
Walkon 7
Invictus 6

Selections:
1) Grands Crus 2) Sir Des Champs 3) First Lieutenant e.w 4) Invictus/Join Together

Previous winners

2011 Bostons Angel 8 16/1
2010 Weapons Amnesty 7 10/1
2009 Cooldine 7 9/4 fav
2008 Albertas Run 7 4/1 fav
2007 Denman 7 6/5 fav
2006 Star De Mohaison 5 14/1
2005 Trabolgan 7 5/1
2004 Rule Supreme 8 25/1
2003 One Knight 7 15/2
2002 Hussard Collonges 7 33/1






Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (nine of the past 12 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1, although the past two winners have landed odds of 10/1). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. 10 of the past 12 Arkle winners finished in the first two in this race the following year. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals. At current odds Sizing Europe may be worth taking on with Finian’s Rainbow.

Shortlist:
Sizing Europe 10
Finian’s Rainbow 9
Somersby 8
Big Zeb 11

Selections:
1) Finian’s Rainbow 2) Sizing Europe 3) Somersby 4) Big Zeb

Previous winners
2011 Sizing Europe 9 10/1
2010 Big Zeb 9 10/1
2009 Master Minded 6 4/11 fav
2008 Master Minded 5 3/1
2007 Voy Por Ustedes 6 5/1
2006 Newmill 8 16/1
2005 Moscow Flyer 11 6/4 fav
2004 Azertyuiop 7 15/8
2003 Moscow Flyer 9 7/4 fav
2002 Flagship Uberalles 8 7/4 fav


Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo+) 2m 5f

Shortlist:
Getmeoutofhere 8
Carlito Brigante 6
Batonnier ? 6
Our Father 6
Toner D’Oudaries 5

Selections:
1) Getmeoutofhere 2) Our Father

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo) 2m 110y

Shortlist:
Vendor 4
Hinterland 4
Ranjaan 4
One Lucky Lady 4
Hisaabaat 4
Kazlian 4

Selections:
1) Vendor 2) Kazlian 3) Ranjaan


FWKM Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 3m ½f
Champion Bumper 2m ½f

5yos have advantage, although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win. Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins (six winners, five of which were once-raced 5yos).

Shortlist:
Moscow Mannon 6
Royal Guardsman 5
 
Finian's Rainbow is such a good each way bet today.

I also like Four Commanders.

I have Simonsig in an antepost double with Sprinter Sacre but am up in the air about his chances. May add another.

New Year's Eve would be a choice in the bumper, but may be a no bet race.

Vendor may win by half the track.
 
I had Fingal Bay in an ante-post double with Sprinter Sacre :( but I also have Simonsig at a reasonable price. He has the engine of SS but I fear he could have Harchibald's resolution.

I like Alfie Spinner for the guvnor with SWC up.

Wishfull Thinking may get a place in the QM. He jumped beautifully in the Jewson last year and I just hope he's a spring horse.

First Lieutenant's Neptune is working out a feck of a lot better than Bob's Worth's AB and he's worth taking Grands Crus on with.
 
Alan King is very bullish about Vendor in the juvenile handicap; probably with good reason, as his horse was in the process of running a decent race behind crack French 4yo Esmondo in his final start at Auteuil. I'm going to run with the Esmondo connection and throw Venetia's pair Kapga de Cerisy and Moujik Borget into combinations. Both have run well enough behind the same horse earlier in the season, and neither has been unduly punished by the handicapper.
 
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I'm big on Pique Sous. Biggest I've ever been on a horse. He has my week in his hands. Having said that, I'm all in ew and heavy place. The win would be very very nice, but the type of race it is, there could be a hidden aeroplane, so place will be good enough for a nice profit. I respect Royal Guardsman and The New One as dangers.
 
Yesterday could have been very special if HF had read the script but not bad nevertheless.

Today is moving day and I believe the day which we will make them pay!!:ninja:

Simonsig would have hacked up in the Supreme yesterday and is a good thing today.
Grand Crus is a GC winner in waiting and will beat these oil tankers on the steel.
Sizing Europe BANG BANG BANG - pawn everything you have - the IMF are considering backing this one....:p
Vendor - Could be up to 20lbs well in - will make Hunt Ball running off 69 look harsh.
Get Me Out of Here - Nothing to hide but if there is any justice in the world he gets his turn today.
Jezki in the bumper EW - to put the icing on the cake.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Yesterday could have been very special if HF has read the script but not bad nevertheless.

Today is moving day and I believe the day which we will make them pay!!:ninja:

Simonsig would have hacked up in the Supreme yesterday and is a good thing today.
Grand Crus is a GC winner in waiting and will beat these oil tankers on the stell.
Sizing Europe BANG BANG BANG - pawn everything you have - the IMF are considering backing this one....:p
Vendor - Could be up to 20lbs well in - will make Hunt Ball running off 69 look harsh.
Get Me Out of Here - Nothing to hide but if there is any justice in the world he gets his turn today.
Jezki in the bumper EW - to put the icing on the cake.
Click to expand...

You could have just said you are backing ALL of the favourites! :p
 
I'm taking on Grand Crus with First Lieutenant and Call The Police; taking on SE with Finian's Rainbow, e/w on Moujik Borget in the FW and leaning towards Featherbed Lane in the Coral Cup.

Tossing up between the Ferguson & Mullins horses in the Neptune (Cotton Mill / Sous Les Cieux) and Bumper (New Year's Eve / Pique Sous). Will probably end up leaving both alone :rolleyes:
 
I think before anyone backs SE at odds on they should think about Hurricane Fly yesterday. Very few horses are value in Championship races at these sort of prices.

I think Big Zeb has lost a yard of pace, and Finian's Rainbow has improved massively since Ascot and is an each way bet to nothing.
 
Vendor is my nap today (backed accordingly) and Simonsig has to win surely??

Have also backed Clonbanon Lad in the bumper and Featherbed Lane in the Coral Cup.

Enjoy:whistle:
 
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Hamm said:
I think before anyone backs SE at odds on they should think about Hurricane Fly yesterday. Very few horses are value in Championship races at these sort of prices.

I think Big Zeb has lost a yard of pace, and Finian's Rainbow has improved massively since Ascot and is an each way bet to nothing.
Click to expand...

HF prep completely different to Sizing's. He has been bombproof this year and and is clear enough on ratings to be 1/2 shot.
 
EC1 said:
Grass

thought you had run off?
Click to expand...

It's true I didn't have the stomach to post, EC1. When you spend four seasons talking-up a horse, you at least want it to run it's race. My primary feeling yesterday was one of frustration, rather than disappointment.

Whether HF did run his race is an argument for another day. Time will tell me whether I want to get involved in it again. I've an open mind right now, but no inclination to analyse the race until further down the line. :cool:
 
On The Bridle said:
HF prep completely different to Sizing's. He has been bombproof this year and and is clear enough on ratings to be 1/2 shot.
Click to expand...

HF's prep was also perfect, perhaps putting up his best ever run last time out.

Sizing has looked good the last 2 times, but hasn't beaten much don't forget. Kauto Stone would have gone closer (though not have won) if he didn't make a pig's ear of one of the Railways. Big Zeb is on a downward spiral. Yes, he deserves to be a clear favourite and may well win, but there is no value in his price for me.

SE at 10/11 only pays for another bet, and that's if he wins.
 
Grasshopper said:
It's true I didn't have the stomach to post, EC1. When you spend four seasons talking-up a horse, you at least want it to run it's race. My primary feeling yesterday was one of frustration, rather than disappointment.

Whether HF did run his race is an argument for another day. Time will tell me whether I want to get involved in it again. I've an open mind right now, but no inclination to analyse the race until further down the line. :cool:
Click to expand...

Come here and give me a hug, will ya? :D
 
Wouldn't put anyone off backing Saphir River in the Coral Cup - if you think that the 129 Vendor is lenient for falling in a Grade 1 last time out then 139 for finishing runner up has to be right up your street, and for Hamm and co who are Spirit Son fans this fellow ran that horse to a head as a 3yo Hurdler a few years ago.

They've paid an absolute fortune for him and are biding their time with him until he goes Chasing next season - the trip of 2m 5f might be on the sharp side for him but he should handle the better ground and at least be staying on at the death, at 40/1 and with the 5 places he's most certainly worth a few quid of anyones money!!!!

Martin
 
Think the Simon, SE double is good stuff today. Then add in GC and Vendor for a Yankee dont think it'll be far off. Was slightly concerned with GC over whether he'd stay but having seen the ground yesterday I think this will play to his strengths and his speed mid race may kill it just like SS yesterday. I'll be having some ew thievery with Finians and BW double as a save.
In the coral cup I'm really sweet on Tenor Nivernais been following him since last year. He ran a strange race in the FW last year where completely outpaced but flew at finish proving he comes up the hill. The extra distance he'll love, Venetias horses in great form and at 33/1 it would be rude not to.
 
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